Hypermind
Article
Hypermind is a recurring organization in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between February 23, 2021 and August 28, 2023. The archive places it in contexts such as “An alert reader linked me to another play money prediction market, Hypermind”; “y prediction market, Hypermind , with about two dozen questions”; “The forecasters from Hypermind did the worst”. It most often appears alongside Metaculus, Zvi, 2024: Bullish on Blue.
Metadata
- Category: Organizations
- Mention count: 2
- Issue count: 2
- First seen: February 23, 2021
- Last seen: August 28, 2023
Appears In
Related Pages
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- Metaculus (2 shared issues)
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- Zvi (2 shared issues)
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- 2024: Bullish on Blue (1 shared issues)
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- ACX forecasting contest (1 shared issues)
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- Africa (1 shared issues)
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- AI Advances by 2025 (1 shared issues)
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- Augur (1 shared issues)
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- August 31 (1 shared issues)
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- Bay Area (1 shared issues)
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- Bitcoin (1 shared issues)
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- Brazil (1 shared issues)
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- Bucky (1 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
1: An alert reader linked me to another play money prediction market, Hypermind, with about two dozen questions including some focused on France and Africa. I'm not too excited by anything up there now, but it looks like they're working on an AI forecasting contest.
Inline links: Hypermind
Overall, here is how I would summarize the results: Metaculus and I did the best and were both well-calibrated, with the Metaculus crowd forecast doing slightly better than me. The AI experts from Karger et al. did the next best. They had similar medians to me but were (probably) overconfident in the tails. The superforecasters from Karger et al. did the next best. They (probably) systematically underpredicted progress. The forecasters from Hypermind did the worst. They underpredicted progress significantly on MMLU.