Astral Codex Ten

Balaji

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Balaji

Article

Balaji is a recurring person in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between May 23, 2023 and December 31, 2025. The archive places it in contexts such as “But Balaji saw it and took it seriously”; “Balaji started out with a strong reputation, so a reputational bet was a big deal for him”; “(7) Balaji on the Fiat Crisis”. It most often appears alongside Noah Smith, US, 1955.

Metadata

  • Category: People
  • Mention count: 2
  • Issue count: 2
  • First seen: May 23, 2023
  • Last seen: December 31, 2025

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

23
May 23, 2023 · Original source
I interpret this as: it’s tempting to treat this as Team Long-Range-Forecasting-Is-Possible Vs. Team No-It-Isn’t. But everyone agrees certain kinds of long-range forecasts are possible (I predict with high confidence that the US President in 2050 will not be a Zoroastrian) and others are impossible (I cannot begin to predict the name of the US President in 2050). People who consider themselves “believers” vs. “skeptics” about long-range forecasting should figure out the exact boundary of which cases they disagree on. And then Tetlock et al can test those cases and figure out who’s right. Balaji’s Big Bitcoin Bet What’s the role of bets in forecasting? Prediction markets are their own thing, but in general a bet acts as a commitment mechanism. If you really believe a probability estimate, you should be willing to bet at the relevant odds. Not in real life; in real life you might be risk-avoidant, or the transaction costs might be too high. But in theory you should be willing to bet; thus the saying that “a bet is a tax on bullshit”.
Balaji Srinivasan, a VC, multimillionaire, and Twitter personality, paid his taxes last month. An enthusiastic Bitcoin promoter, he said that the recent run of bank collapses, most notably Silicon Valley Bank, would be the spark for rampant hyperinflation; he urged his followers to switch to Bitcoin immediately.
This was originally meant as a joke; if the US entered hyperinflation, the money would be worthless. But Balaji saw it and took it seriously:
Highlights From The Comments On Vibecession
December 31, 2025 · Original source
(7) Balaji on the Fiat Crisis
Inline links: Balaji on the Fiat Crisis