Astral Codex Ten

Clay Graubard

3 min read

Clay Graubard

Article

Clay Graubard is a recurring person in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 4 times across 4 issues between December 28, 2021 and June 13, 2022. The archive places it in contexts such as “Clay Graubard for Forecasting”; “Thanks to Clay Graubard for doing my work for me”; “Clay Graubard did some good work looking at how different prediction markets assessed the threat”. It most often appears alongside Metaculus, Kalshi, Manifold.

Metadata

  • Category: People
  • Mention count: 4
  • Issue count: 4
  • First seen: December 28, 2021
  • Last seen: June 13, 2022

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

ACX Grants Results
December 28, 2021 · Original source
Evaluating applications was much harder than I expected, and I was saved by several teams of people who agreed to read over some large fraction of 656 grant applications for free or at least for much less money than they deserved. These include: Merrick Smela, Ruth Hook, Samira Nedungadi, Tessa Alexanian, and AG for Biology; Kieran Greig for Animals; Clay Graubard for Forecasting; José Luis Ricón for Science & Progress; Andrew Martin for Global Health & Development, [anonymous] for Politics, Misha Gurevich for everything I could force him to read, and a few other people who gave me miscellaneous advice on specific proposals. I made all final decisions and you shouldn’t blame these people if I got something wrong.
Mantic Monday: Ukraine Cube Manifold
February 14, 2022 · Original source
Thanks to Clay Graubard for doing my work for me:
Inline links: Clay Graubard
Ukraine Warcasting
March 01, 2022 · Original source
Clay Graubard did some good work looking at how different prediction markets assessed the threat of Russia invading Ukraine.
Inline links: did some good work looking at
My very quick search didn’t find any pundit who successfully predicted both the Russian invasion and the strong Ukranian resistance. I couldn’t even really find anybody who predicted one correctly and was silent on the other (I think Clay Graubard of Global Guessing managed this, but he’s a superforecaster, not a pundit). If you know someone in this category, please let me know so I can give them an appropriate amount of glory.
Inline links: managed this
22
June 13, 2022 · Original source
1: Andrew Eaddy and Clay Graubard gave a talk about prediction markets at big crypto conference Consensus in Austin earlier this month.
Inline links: gave a talk about prediction markets