Astral Codex Ten

Nathan Young

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Nathan Young

Article

Nathan Young is a recurring person in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 9 times across 9 issues between December 20, 2021 and January 13, 2026. The archive places it in contexts such as “h/t Nathan Young”; “Nathan Young, $5,000, to fund his continued work”; ""Nathan Young has since gotten much larger grants to do much more exciting forecasting work"". It most often appears alongside Metaculus, ACX, effective altruism.

Metadata

  • Category: People
  • Mention count: 9
  • Issue count: 9
  • First seen: December 20, 2021
  • Last seen: January 13, 2026

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

Mantic Monday: Let Me Google That For You
December 20, 2021 · Original source
I rarely see people trying this, but here’s an exception from Metaculus (h/t Nathan Young):
Inline links: Nathan Young
ACX Grants Results
December 28, 2021 · Original source
Nathan Young, $5,000, to fund his continued work writing Metaculus questions and trying to build bridges between the forecasting and effective altruist communities. Nathan is a Metaculus moderator, the author of a prediction market blog I've used as a source before, and has useful connections with people who might be convinced to use formal forecasting methods for their organizations. This grant is a vote of confidence in him to continue this work, and another part of my effort to fund more forecasting infrastructure. You can read his newsletter, the UK Policy Forecast, here. If you have suggestions for forecasting questions he asks that you DM him on twitter or add them to this open Google doc.
Inline links: here, DM him on twitter, this open Google doc
ACX Grants: Project Updates
November 04, 2022 · Original source
30: Writing Forecasting Questions For EA Organizations (6/10) Nathan Young has since gotten much larger grants to do much more exciting forecasting work, particularly a platform for generating forecasting questions. With my approval, he’s put my grant on the back burner while he works on other things, but he still hopes to get some questions up on Manifold or Metaculus sometime.
Open Thread 250
November 13, 2022 · Original source
9: The past few days I’ve been thinking a lot of stuff along the lines of “how can I ever trust anybody again?”. So I was pleased when Nathan Young figured out the obvious solution: make a list of everyone I’ve ever trusted or considered trusting, make prediction markets about whether any of them are committing fraud, then pre-emptively be emotionally dead to anybody who goes above a certain threshold. You can find some preliminary markets here, although I have nitpicks about the exact questions. If anyone ever goes above 33% on that market in anything other than a short-term blip, I’ll either sever all ties with them, or at least write a public post presenting my explanation for why I’m not doing that despite the risk. [UPDATE: Some people took this too seriously so Nathan deleted it]
Inline links: You can find some preliminary markets here
Mantic Monday: Twitter Chaos Edition
November 21, 2022 · Original source
When the FTX news broke, I wrote about Nathan Young’s idea of having scandal markets for various public figures. That is, what’s the chance that they get into a scandal so bad that you regret associating with them? This would be useful partly for people wanting to know who to avoid. But also, after a scandal there’s always associates saying “But how could I possibly have known?” and victims saying “All the red flags were right there!” Scandal markets would solve this; if the market was at 1% before the scandal, the “how could I possibly have known”-ers were right. If it was at 66%, the “red flag”ers were.
Open Thread 258
January 08, 2023 · Original source
5: The “SHRIMP LOVE ME, UNALIGNED AIS FEAR ME” t-shirt mentioned in the post was based on (a misremembered version of) Nathan Young’s submission here. Reader @dropbella has since turned this into a reality; you can buy the cap here.
Inline links: here, here
Links For January 2025
January 17, 2025 · Original source
21: Nathan Young has a bird flu risk dashboard.
Inline links: a bird flu risk dashboard
ACX Grants 1-3 Year Updates
June 18, 2025 · Original source
No update this time, but from last cycle: “Nathan Young has since gotten much larger grants to do much more exciting forecasting work, particularly a platform for generating forecasting questions. With my approval, he’s put my grant on the back burner while he works on other things, but he still hopes to get some questions up on Manifold or Metaculus sometime.”
Mantic Monday: The Monkey's Paw Curls
January 13, 2026 · Original source
And Nathan Young has put together an AGI timelines forecasting dashboard:
Inline links: an AGI timelines forecasting dashboard