Astral Codex Ten

Robert

12 min read

Robert

Article

Robert is a recurring person in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 4 times across 4 issues between August 23, 2021 and August 28, 2023. The archive places it in contexts such as “Contact: Robert, bobert[dot]mushky[at]gmail[dot]com”; “Contact: Robert (bobert.mushky@gmail.com)”; “But Aella and Robert are great”. It most often appears alongside ACX MEETUP, ACX, Alex.

Metadata

  • Category: People
  • Mention count: 4
  • Issue count: 4
  • First seen: August 23, 2021
  • Last seen: August 28, 2023

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

Meetups Everywhere 2021: Times And Places
August 23, 2021 · Original source
BANGKOK, THAILAND (RSVP) Contact: Robert Hoglund, robert[dot]d[dot]hoglund[at]gmail[dot]com Time: 4:00 PM, Saturday, October 2 Location: Benjasiri Park, Phrom Phong. By the skatepark. I will be wearing a blue shirt and carrying a sign. Coordinates: https://w3w.co/oavsett.havsstrand.magiker Notes: Since this is being added very late, I would strongly recommend RSVPing so I know if anyone plans to show up.
Inline links: RSVP, https://w3w.co/oavsett.havsstrand.magiker
JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA (RSVP) Contact: DS, 87robertjames[at]gmail[dot]com Time: 3:00 PM, Sunday, September 5 Location: Delta Park, within 100m of the parking area on the west. I will be wearing a red shirt or jacket, carrying a sign that says ACX MEETUP. Coordinates: https://w3w.co/holiday.crashing.custom
Inline links: RSVP, https://w3w.co/holiday.crashing.custom
WEST LOS ANGELES, CA (RSVP) Contact: Robert, bobert[dot]mushky[at]gmail[dot]com, Google group, LessWrong group, Discord server Time: 7:00 PM, Wednesday, October 6 Location: 3266 Inglewood Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90066 Coordinates: https://w3w.co/labs.motion.cherry Notes: Location is subject to change; join the Google Group for updates. Meetups are every Wednesday at 7 pm.
Inline links: RSVP, Google group, LessWrong group, Discord server, https://w3w.co/labs.motion.cherry
Spring Meetups In Seventy Cities
April 10, 2022 · Original source
BANGKOK, THAILAND Contact: Robert Hoglund (robert.d.hoglund@gmail.com) Date: April 30 Time: 1:00 PM Coordinates: https://plus.codes/7P52PGVW+HQ Location: Open House at Central Embassy. Located at the top floor of the mall. Notes: Please RSVP so I know if there is interest.
Inline links: https://plus.codes/7P52PGVW+HQ, Open House at Central Embassy, Located
LOS ANGELES, CA Contact: Robert (bobert.mushky@gmail.com) Date: April 20 Time: 6:30 PM Coordinates: https://plus.codes/85632H87+P5 Location: 3266 Inglewood Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90066 Group info: Los Angeles Rationality meets every Wednesday
Inline links: https://plus.codes/85632H87+P5, Los Angeles Rationality
23: Room Temperature Superforecaster
August 01, 2023 · Original source
Jacob Cohen describes himself as the president of his school’s forecasting club. I think we’re going to be all right. Manifest 2023 Manifold Markets is sponsoring Manifest, an “inaugural forecasting & prediction market conference”, to be held at the Rose Garden Inn, Berkeley, California the weekend of September 22. Their website is short on details, but listed speakers and guests of honor are: …now that I think about it I do remember vaguely agreeing to something like this, though I’m not currently planning to give any particular speeches. But Aella and Robert are great - and although I’ve never met the third guy, it seems appropriate for a conference called Manifest to feature someone named Destiny. Manifold tends to do things on impulse and fill in the details later, so the schedule looks sparse. But usually the things they throw together last-minute end up being pretty good, so I’m looking forward to this. Tickets cost $220, but can also be purchased with mana (Manifold Markets’ play money), at least until the CFTC notices. It looks like there’s an arbitrage you can use to get the tickets at a 10% discount - I think this is less likely to be a mistake than a preference to have people who can spot arbitrages 10% over-represented at the conference compared to everyone else. Room Temperature Superforecaster Maybe the long-awaited killer app for prediction markets is . . . debating superconductors? First, the markets: I’m heartened to see these two very big markets ($200,000+ volume, 2,000+ traders) within 1% of each other (as of time of writing). This is a really difficult question without an obvious prior, so the level of convergence suggests the markets really are doing their job… …but Metaculus is much lower, probably because the other two are asking if any replication will be positive, and Metaculus is asking if the first replication attempt will be. It’s bad news that these numbers are so different, and suggests a high chance that this stays confusing and comes down to finicky resolution criteria. Still, this has gotten lots of people checking the prediction markets, including Paul Graham: …and around 500 others, according to the Manifold Active Users graph (source): Aside from headline numbers, I’ve also appreciated prediction market comment sections as a good place to stay up to date on the latest developments (including a link to this thread) Elsewhere In Forecasting NYPost: Blind Mystic Baba Vanga Makes Terrifying Nuclear Disaster Prediction For 2023: A blind mystic who allegedly predicted 9/11 is said to have foreseen a nuclear disaster that will ravage Earth before the end of 2023. Baba Vanga, a blind Bulgarian woman, is rumored to have predicted some of the biggest events in world history. She died more than a quarter of a century ago, but many of her predictions are said to have come true long after her death. Now, her followers claim that Baba Vanga foresaw a devastating nuclear disaster that will unfold this year. Big if true. In what sense did she predict 9/11? Another article gives the exact text of the 1989 prediction: “Horror, horror! The American brethren will fall after being attacked by the steel birds. The wolves will be howling in a bush, and innocent blood will be gushing.” This is a 1989 prediction! If you’re calling airplanes “steel birds” in 1989, you’re just hoping that people forget you lived when airplanes already existed and then get impressed with you for predicting them. Come on! (you could argue that the second half is about Assistant Secretary of State John Wolf and Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz howling for war with Iraq from within the Bush administration, but Ass. Sec Wolf played a minimal role in the war buildup so I think if you are being very strict in your interpretation there was really only one wolf involved.) Anyway, Vanga’s other predictions for 2023 include: Earth’s orbit will change
Inline links: Jacob Cohen, Manifest, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!owXd!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F11594b53-e8df-4064-aacf-af4890ac0fe6_1503x615.png, https://polymarket.com/event/is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real, https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-superconductor-pre-print-replicated/, Paul Graham, source, this thread, Blind Mystic Baba Vanga Makes Terrifying Nuclear Disaster Prediction For 2023, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yIPJ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc81ce0d2-e9c7-41b9-be38-0182d21f0381_1024x682.jpeg, the exact text of the 1989 prediction
…now that I think about it I do remember vaguely agreeing to something like this, though I’m not currently planning to give any particular speeches. But Aella and Robert are great - and although I’ve never met the third guy, it seems appropriate for a conference called Manifest to feature someone named Destiny. Manifold tends to do things on impulse and fill in the details later, so the schedule looks sparse. But usually the things they throw together last-minute end up being pretty good, so I’m looking forward to this. Tickets cost $220, but can also be purchased with mana (Manifold Markets’ play money), at least until the CFTC notices. It looks like there’s an arbitrage you can use to get the tickets at a 10% discount - I think this is less likely to be a mistake than a preference to have people who can spot arbitrages 10% over-represented at the conference compared to everyone else. Room Temperature Superforecaster Maybe the long-awaited killer app for prediction markets is . . . debating superconductors? First, the markets: I’m heartened to see these two very big markets ($200,000+ volume, 2,000+ traders) within 1% of each other (as of time of writing). This is a really difficult question without an obvious prior, so the level of convergence suggests the markets really are doing their job… …but Metaculus is much lower, probably because the other two are asking if any replication will be positive, and Metaculus is asking if the first replication attempt will be. It’s bad news that these numbers are so different, and suggests a high chance that this stays confusing and comes down to finicky resolution criteria. Still, this has gotten lots of people checking the prediction markets, including Paul Graham: …and around 500 others, according to the Manifold Active Users graph (source): Aside from headline numbers, I’ve also appreciated prediction market comment sections as a good place to stay up to date on the latest developments (including a link to this thread) Elsewhere In Forecasting NYPost: Blind Mystic Baba Vanga Makes Terrifying Nuclear Disaster Prediction For 2023: A blind mystic who allegedly predicted 9/11 is said to have foreseen a nuclear disaster that will ravage Earth before the end of 2023. Baba Vanga, a blind Bulgarian woman, is rumored to have predicted some of the biggest events in world history. She died more than a quarter of a century ago, but many of her predictions are said to have come true long after her death. Now, her followers claim that Baba Vanga foresaw a devastating nuclear disaster that will unfold this year. Big if true. In what sense did she predict 9/11? Another article gives the exact text of the 1989 prediction: “Horror, horror! The American brethren will fall after being attacked by the steel birds. The wolves will be howling in a bush, and innocent blood will be gushing.” This is a 1989 prediction! If you’re calling airplanes “steel birds” in 1989, you’re just hoping that people forget you lived when airplanes already existed and then get impressed with you for predicting them. Come on! (you could argue that the second half is about Assistant Secretary of State John Wolf and Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz howling for war with Iraq from within the Bush administration, but Ass. Sec Wolf played a minimal role in the war buildup so I think if you are being very strict in your interpretation there was really only one wolf involved.) Anyway, Vanga’s other predictions for 2023 include: Earth’s orbit will change
Inline links: https://polymarket.com/event/is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real, https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-superconductor-pre-print-replicated/, Paul Graham, source, this thread, Blind Mystic Baba Vanga Makes Terrifying Nuclear Disaster Prediction For 2023, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yIPJ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc81ce0d2-e9c7-41b9-be38-0182d21f0381_1024x682.jpeg, the exact text of the 1989 prediction
23
August 28, 2023 · Original source
Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/supercon/roomtemp-superconductor-reported Both reached the 40s to 50s! I think there just wasn’t enough smart money to drown out the people who wanted to bet on an exciting thing being true, or who were unduly influenced by a social media environment optimized to keep their attention by convincing them that an exciting thing was true. I have never claimed prediction markets are always good. All I wrote in the Prediction Market FAQ was that either a prediction market will be good, or you could make lots of free money. In this case, it was the second one. I regret I only made $30. I do hope this situation will improve over time, as over-eager forecasters get burned and dollars flow from dumb money to smarter. [EDIT: I should have included something about Metaculus here, but it’s confusing. I think the most popular Metaculus market was lower because it had stricter resolution criteria (the first replication had to be positive, instead of any replication) but that otherwise Metaculus raw probabilities mirrored everyone else’s. We don’t know how their algorithmically processed probabilities did yet and I’ll report on that information when I get it.] Salem/CSPI Tournament Winners The Salem Center and the Center For The Study Of Partisanship And Ideology, two think tanks associated with right-wing intellectual Richard Hanania, sponsored a prediction market tournament last year. Participants got $1000 in play money to bet on selected markets about current events; winners would be interviewed for a well-paying academic sinecure at one of the think tanks. Now the tournament is over. Winners have yet to be announced, but unofficially, everyone knows who they are: First place out of 999 participants is zubbybadger. Zubby is a prediction market veteran who was featured in a Washington Monthly article last year for his great track record in political betting (he’s made > $150,000 on PredictIt). Now he works as a “community manager” for Kalshi (I don’t know what this entails). Second place was Robert from Considerations On Codecrafting. He’s written a detailed reflection on his experience (part one, part two) which is my main source for this section and highly recommended. He describes himself as “having absolutely no experience with prediction markets”. Third place was Johnny Ten-Numbers, about whom I can find no further information. You can see the rest of the top 20 at the very bottom of this post. Reading Robert’s story of his experience, I’m struck by how little of the competition at the top was about predictive accuracy. Everyone in the top 20 was a very accurate predictor (Exactly equally accurate? Hard to tell.) What separated 1st place from 20th, aside from luck, was things like: Ability to move fast - both in responding to news, and in taking the other side of bad bets. Several top performers programmed bots to give them an edge here.
Inline links: Prediction Market FAQ, selected markets about current events, zubbybadger, featured in a Washington Monthly article last year, Robert, part one, part two, Johnny Ten-Numbers
Reading Robert’s logs made me more convinced than ever that the winners are probably brilliant people who deservedly won this 5-dimensional chess game. But only some of their brilliance is concentrated in prediction per se. Seems bad, and makes me think traditional forecasting tournaments beat Salem-style prediction market tournaments at identifying superforecasters.
Congratulations to all winners and participants. Salem still has to decide who gets the research fellowship (I think Robert can win over Richard Hanania by bonding over their shared hobby of writing extremely long things); I’ll report on that when it happens.