Zelenskyy
Article
Zelenskyy is a recurring person in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between March 01, 2022 and January 24, 2023. The archive places it in contexts such as “Zelenskyy was saying everything would be okay”; “most accurate source of forecasts on a Ukraine cease-fire - that would be… Zelenskyy”. It most often appears alongside ACX, Less Wrong, Manifold.
Metadata
- Category: People
- Mention count: 2
- Issue count: 2
- First seen: March 01, 2022
- Last seen: January 24, 2023
Appears In
Related Pages
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- ACX (2 shared issues)
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- Less Wrong (2 shared issues)
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- Manifold (2 shared issues)
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- Matt Yglesias (2 shared issues)
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- Metaculus (2 shared issues)
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- Philip Tetlock (2 shared issues)
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- Putin (2 shared issues)
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- Russia (2 shared issues)
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- Ukraine (2 shared issues)
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- ACX Prediction Contest (1 shared issues)
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- Afghan government (1 shared issues)
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- AI Impacts (1 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
Current conventional wisdom is that the invasion was a miscalculation on Putin’s part, after he surrounded himself with so many yes-men that he lost touch with reality. But Ukraine miscalculated too; until almost the day of the invasion, Zelenskyy was saying everything would be okay. And if there’s a nuclear exchange, it will be because of miscalculation - I don’t know what the miscalculation will be, just that nobody goes into a nuclear exhange because they want to. Preserving people’s access to reality and helping them avoid miscalculations are peacekeeping measures, sometimes very important ones.
Inline links: are
This is the most-predicted relevant question on Metaculus right now. The first day of the war, the market predicted as high as 90%; as people realized the strength of Ukrainian resistance, it fell to 80. Mid-Saturday there was a sudden drop from 78% to 72%, after some combination of a defiant Zelenskyy speech and a report that Russian paratroopers had been repelled. Since then it’s barely budged.
— Will Zelensky still be President of Ukraine on 4/22/22? 42% chance Polymarket seems hesitant to go into actual war predictions, but this market at least acts as a proxy for whether there will be a Ukraine on 4/22/22 - though with a side of “will Zelensky be killed or captured?”. “Yes” dropped as low as 12% during the early parts of the invasion, but is doing a little better now.
None of these aggregation methods are the most accurate source of forecasts on a Ukraine cease-fire - that would be Putin and Zelenskyy, who could have secret plans they haven’t announced. These methods might not even be the most accurate public source - maybe that’s someone with an International Relations PhD who’s studied the region their whole life.