ACX Prediction Contest
Article
ACX Prediction Contest is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 3 times across 3 issues between January 24, 2023 and July 08, 2025. The archive places it in contexts such as “why I did well in the ACX Prediction Contest”; “Nathaniel Hendrix uses the ACX prediction contest data to test some theories”; “One of the questions on the 2023 - 2024 ACX prediction contest”. It most often appears alongside Less Wrong, Twitter, 4o.
Metadata
- Category: Events
- Mention count: 3
- Issue count: 3
- First seen: January 24, 2023
- Last seen: July 08, 2025
Appears In
Related Pages
-
- Less Wrong (2 shared issues)
-
- Twitter (2 shared issues)
-
- 4o (1 shared issues)
-
- @moritheil (1 shared issues)
-
- ACX (1 shared issues)
-
- Adam Tooze (1 shared issues)
-
- Africa (1 shared issues)
-
- AI (1 shared issues)
-
- AI Impacts (1 shared issues)
-
- AI X-Risk Research Podcast (1 shared issues)
-
- AISafety.training (1 shared issues)
-
- Al-Mada’in (1 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
I think that any interesting forecasting requires a holistic/systemic understanding of the thing being forecast, and I have a soft spot for the System Dynamics methodology as taught at MIT Sloan. Best guess as to why I did well in the ACX Prediction Contest is the above plus subscribing to one liberal and one conservative news outlet and reading both regularly. And luck.
48: Nathaniel Hendrix uses the ACX prediction contest data to test some theories about whether superforecasters are just using cheap tricks. His conclusion is more nuanced but I would summarize it as: no, they are not just using cheap tricks.
One of the questions on the 2023 - 2024 ACX prediction contest was whether any AI would win the bet by the end of 2023. In order to resolve the question, Edwin and his Surge team returned to the image mines in January 2024. They checked DALL-E3 and Midjourney; I’m including only the pictures from DALL-E3, which did better. Here they are:
Inline links: Here they are
Backlinks
- AI X-Risk Research Podcast
- Alex Berenson
- American Psychiatric Association
- Brands
- Buzzfeed
- ChatGPT
- Cochrane
- Concepts: A
- Concepts: B
- Concepts: C
- Concepts: D
- Concepts: E
- Concepts: H
- Concepts: I
- Concepts: L
- Concepts: P
- Concepts: S
- Concepts: T
- Concepts: V
- Concepts: Z
- Edwin Chen
- Eric Lander
- Events: A
- Events: J
- Events: K
- Films
- Google Imagen
- GPT-2
- Instagram Accounts
- Keynesian beauty contest
- Links For February 2023
- Mahayana
- MSNBC
- Natalia
- Now I Really Won That AI Bet
- Organizations: 0-9
- Organizations: A
- Organizations: B
- Organizations: C
- Organizations: D
- Organizations: G
- Organizations: H
- Organizations: M
- Organizations: N
- Organizations: S
- Organizations: U
- People: A
- People: C
- People: D
- People: E
- People: H
- People: J
- People: L
- People: M
- People: N
- People: P
- People: R
- People: S
- People: T
- People: V
- People: W
- Places: A
- Places: R
- Places: S
- Publications: D
- Publications: I
- Publications: P
- Publications: S
- Publications: T
- Publications: U
- Russia Today
- Ryan Kupyn
- The Office
- US Senate
- Vikings
- Vosmyorka
- Who Predicted 2022?
- Zelenskyy