Astral Codex Ten

Heuristics That Almost Always Work

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Heuristics That Almost Always Work

Article

Heuristics That Almost Always Work is a recurring publication in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between February 09, 2022 and March 01, 2022. The archive places it in contexts such as “See my post from yesterday, Heuristics That Almost Always Work”; “see my post from yesterday, Heuristics That Almost Always Work”; “the relevant ACX post is Heuristics That Almost Always Work”. It most often appears alongside Tyler Cowen, ACX, ACX Grants.

Metadata

  • Category: Publications
  • Mention count: 2
  • Issue count: 2
  • First seen: February 09, 2022
  • Last seen: March 01, 2022

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

So You Want To Run A Microgrants Program
February 09, 2022 · Original source
See my post from yesterday, Heuristics That Almost Always Work.
Inline links: Heuristics That Almost Always Work
This is a dangerous game - most of the time you try to beat Heuristics That Almost Always Work, you fail. Still, part of what you’re doing in setting yourself up as a grants evaluator is claiming to be able to do this (unless you have another story in mind, like that you’re good at soliciting proposals or leveraging your personal brand to get funding). The overall grantmaking ecosystem needs some people to take the obvious high-value opportunities, and other people to seek out the opportunities whose value isn’t obvious. If you want to be the latter, good luck.
Ukraine Warcasting
March 01, 2022 · Original source
A bunch of leftists - Michael Tracey, Matt Taibbi, Glenn Greenwald - failed because they couldn’t believe that warmongering intelligence officials trying to scare everyone about Russia had a point. They admittedly had great heuristics: there are lots of warmongers, our intelligence community has been really wrong lots of times before, and the past few years have seen a lot of really embarrassing Russia-related paranoia. Unfortunately, the relevant Less Wrong post here is Reversed Stupidity Is Not Intelligence, and the relevant ACX post is Heuristics That Almost Always Work, so they failed.
Inline links: Reversed Stupidity Is Not Intelligence, Heuristics That Almost Always Work