Avraham Eisenberg
Article
Avraham Eisenberg is a recurring person in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between November 01, 2021 and October 18, 2022. The archive places it in contexts such as “High-level player Avraham Eisenberg gives some of his Tales From Prediction Markets”; “prediction market player Avraham Eisenberg”; “Avraham Eisenberg is a frequent prediction market player”. It most often appears alongside 538, Bloomberg, Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Metadata
- Category: People
- Mention count: 2
- Issue count: 2
- First seen: November 01, 2021
- Last seen: October 18, 2022
Appears In
Related Pages
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- 538 (2 shared issues)
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- Bloomberg (2 shared issues)
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- Commodity Futures Trading Commission (2 shared issues)
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- Metaculus (2 shared issues)
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- OpenAI (2 shared issues)
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- Polymarket (2 shared issues)
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- Robin Hanson (2 shared issues)
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- 2024 elections (1 shared issues)
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- 5 U.S.C. §§ 558, 706 (1 shared issues)
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- Administrative Procedure Act (1 shared issues)
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- Alex Tabarrok (1 shared issues)
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- Andrew Critch (1 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
— High-level player Avraham Eisenberg gives some of his Tales From Prediction Markets. EG:
Inline links: Tales From Prediction Markets
I couldn’t find too many comments in opposition, but one came from a group called Better Markets, which wrote a very long argument saying this was too close to gambling and was a further step towards “the deeply troubling trend toward the ’gamification’ and ‘retailization’ of finance.” Also, frequent prediction market player Avraham Eisenberg wrote a not very serious comment which may have been motivated by spite toward Kalshi, or him just not being a very serious person.
Inline links: Better Markets, a not very serious comment
3: Avraham Eisenberg is a frequent prediction market player whose insights and stories been featured here several times. He recently achieved every trader’s dream - perpetrating a financial scheme convoluted enough to make it into Matt Levine’s newsletter (he also made $114 million). Unclear at this point whether it was a crime, Karlstack gives more details, including some detective work connecting it to Eisenberg, here’s Eisenberg’s own statement where he says he’ll return some of the money. I’m mentioning this because I’ve talked about using prediction-market-winning as a proxy for other kinds of skill and intelligence, and I guess executing a $114 million crypto heist is a kind of skill/intelligence.