Astral Codex Ten

Susan

3 min read

Susan

Article

Susan is a recurring person in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 3 times across 3 issues between February 21, 2022 and June 23, 2022. The archive places it in contexts such as “Suppose Susan is a brilliant superforecaster”; “In a positive-sum system, in the hour it takes Susan to produce one brilliant forecast”; “Contact: Susan (susanstrum@protonmail.com)“. It most often appears alongside Atlanta, Bay Area, Houston.

Metadata

  • Category: People
  • Mention count: 3
  • Issue count: 3
  • First seen: February 21, 2022
  • Last seen: June 23, 2022

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

Play Money And Reputation Systems
February 21, 2022 · Original source
Suppose Susan is a brilliant superforecaster. She spends an hour researching every question in depth, at the end of which she is always right.
In a zero-sum system, Susans (almost) always beats Randys. Susans end up with lots of points, Randys end up with few or negative points, the system works.
In a positive-sum system, in the hour it takes Susan to produce one brilliant forecast, Randy has clicked on 360 different questions. Who ends up with more points? It depends on whether your system rewards a brilliant answer 360x more than the baseline it rewards any answer at all. The above Ukraine question on Metaculus rewards a maximally correct answer 4x more than a lazy answer intended to most efficiently reap the free points - ~50 vs. ~200. So assuming an unlimited number of questions and both people investing the same amount of time, Randy would end up with about a 90x higher reputation than Susan.
Spring Meetups In Seventy Cities
April 10, 2022 · Original source
MOBILE, AL Contact: Susan (susanstrum@protonmail.com) Date: April 11 Time: 6:00 PM Coordinates: https://plus.codes/862HMXV3+FM Location: Greer's St. Louis Market - rooftop deck
Inline links: https://plus.codes/862HMXV3+FM
Book Review: San Fransicko
June 23, 2022 · Original source
Susan agrees. “California is really one of the worst states when it comes to taking care of seriously mentally ill,” she said. “I think a lot has to do with civil liberties. It’s really ingrained in the culture.”