Samo Burja
Article
Samo Burja is a recurring person in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 5 times across 5 issues between March 01, 2022 and April 25, 2023. The archive places it in contexts such as “Samo Burja: C; Samo is a rationalist success story and a smart guy”; “More people make Ukraine predictions: Samo Burja (again)”; “see also … Samo Burja”. It most often appears alongside Kalshi, Metaculus, Polymarket.
Metadata
- Category: People
- Mention count: 5
- Issue count: 5
- First seen: March 01, 2022
- Last seen: April 25, 2023
Appears In
Related Pages
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- Kalshi (3 shared issues)
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- Metaculus (3 shared issues)
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- Polymarket (3 shared issues)
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- China (2 shared issues)
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- Gobekli Tepe (2 shared issues)
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- Good Judgment Project (2 shared issues)
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- Iraq (2 shared issues)
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- Manifold (2 shared issues)
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- Manifold Markets (2 shared issues)
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- Nikos Bosse (2 shared issues)
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- Putin (2 shared issues)
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- Richard Hanania (2 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
(if it doesn’t, he can just say it was because the current Russian operations in Ukraine went sufficiently poorly. Have I mentioned being mildly annoyed?) Samo Burja: C Samo is a rationalist success story and a smart guy, and I appreciate most of his takes. And he’s been careful not to say anything specific that might later get proven false.
Still, I think his biggest position going into this war was “Russia Strong”: brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/modern-russi… \n\n1/n ","username":"SamoBurja","name":"Samo Burja","profile_image_url":"","date":"Wed Feb 23 17:46:35 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FMTI_5bUUAQy9NC.jpg","link_url":"https://t.co/JkBGINP7bI","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":306,"like_count":1049,"impression_count":0,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}" data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM"> brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/russias-rapi…\n\n1/n","username":"SamoBurja","name":"Samo Burja","profile_image_url":"","date":"Wed Feb 16 17:53:07 +0000 2022","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":57,"like_count":230,"impression_count":0,"expanded_url":{"url":"https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/russias-rapid-reforms-bring-military","image":"https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1200,h_600,c_limit,f_jpg,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc3fd02b8-0be6-4654-a329-87662e4684ab_1280x790.jpeg","title":"Russia’s Rapid Reforms Bring Military Theory Into Practice","description":"Putin’s reformist defense ministers have used Marshal Ogarkov’s theories to build a more agile military able to counter NATO air supremacy, showing that Russia is capable of pivots in grand strategy.","domain":"brief.bismarckanalysis.com"},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}" data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM"> Events seem to be tending in the “Russia Not Strong” direction compared to where they were a week or two ago. Even if Russia wins - which they still might do! - and even if Anatoly is right that Western propaganda has us underestimating Russian military successes, I think perceptions of the competence of their army, their ability to match NATO, and their geopolitical acumen have taken a hit.
2: More people make Ukraine predictions: Maxim Lott, Richard Hanania (again), Samo Burja (again), EHarding (possibly trolling?), Robin Hanson (sort of)
There’s a good debate about this on the subreddit; see also Robin Hanson and Samo Burja.
3: Last month I wrote Against Ice Age Civilizations, arguing that civilization probably isn’t more than 12,000 years old. Samo Burja thinks it is and arranged a Long Bet on longbets.org. If archaeologists discover something at least as impressive as Gobekli Tepe from 11,000 BC or earlier before 2043, he wins $200; otherwise I do.
Inline links: Against Ice Age Civilizations, arranged a Long Bet on longbets.org
This is my Long Bet with Samo Burja - the resolution criteria are slightly different, but close enough to make me feel a little more confident I’m on the right side.
Inline links: Long Bet with Samo Burja