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AI Futures: Blogging And AMA

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AI Futures: Blogging And AMA

AI Futures Project is the group behind AI 2027 . I’ve been helping them with their blog . Posts written or co-written by me include: - Beyond The Last Horizon - what’s behind that METR result showing that AI time horizons double every seven months?

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AI Futures Project is the group behind AI 2027 . I’ve been helping them with their blog . Posts written or co-written by me include: - Beyond The Last Horizon - what’s behind that METR result showing that AI time horizons double every seven months? And is it really every seven months? Might it be faster? - AI 2027: Media, Reactions, Criticism - a look at some of the response to AI 2027, with links to some of the best objections and the team’s responses. - Why America Wins - why we predict that America will stay ahead of China on AI in the near future, and what could change this. I will probably be shifting most of my AI blogging there for a while to take advantage of access to the team’s expertise. There’s also a post on transparency by Daniel Kokotajlo , and we hope to eventually host writing by other team members as well. I’m especially happy with the horizons post , because we got it out just a few days before a new result that seems to support one of our predictions: OpenAI’s newest models’ time horizons land on the faster curve we predicted, rather than the slower seven-month doubling time highlighted in the METR report: Curvy green dotted line is AI 2027’s prediction; straight black dotted line is METR’s measured seven month doubling time. This isn’t meant to imply that METR didn’t also consider a superexponential trend, it’s just not the headline result in their paper. And speaking of expertise, the AIFP team have kindly volunteered to do an AMA (“ask me anything”, Q&A) here on ACX, this Friday, 3:30 - 6:00 PM California time. If you have any questions on the scenario, AI forecasting, or AI safety more generally, they can give you high-quality answers. I’ll make a separate post at the appointed time.