Astral Codex Ten

AI Futures Project

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AI Futures Project

Article

AI Futures Project is a recurring organization in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 6 times across 6 issues between April 03, 2025 and February 05, 2026. The archive places it in contexts such as “He founded the AI Futures Project to produce the promised sequel”; “AI Futures Project is the group behind AI 2027”; “The AI Futures Project team will be answering your questions”. It most often appears alongside OpenAI, Anthropic, ChatGPT.

Metadata

  • Category: Organizations
  • Mention count: 6
  • Issue count: 6
  • First seen: April 03, 2025
  • Last seen: February 05, 2026

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

Introducing AI 2027
April 03, 2025 · Original source
Unluckily for Sam Altman but luckily for the rest of us, Daniel broke with OpenAI mid-2024 in a dramatic split covered by the New York Times and others. He founded the AI Futures Project to produce the promised sequel, including:
Inline links: the New York Times
AI Futures: Blogging And AMA
April 24, 2025 · Original source
AI Futures Project is the group behind AI 2027. I’ve been helping them with their blog. Posts written or co-written by me include:
Inline links: AI 2027, their blog
AI 2027: Media, Reactions, Criticism - a look at some of the response to AI 2027, with links to some of the best objections and the team’s responses.
Inline links: AI 2027: Media, Reactions, Criticism
Curvy green dotted line is AI 2027's prediction; straight black dotted line is METR's measured seven month doubling time. This isn’t meant to imply that METR didn't also consider a superexponential trend, it’s just not the headline result in their paper. And speaking of expertise, the AIFP team have kindly volunteered to do an AMA (“ask me anything”, Q&A) here on ACX, this Friday, 3:30 - 6:00 PM California time. If you have any questions on the scenario, AI forecasting, or AI safety more generally, they can give you high-quality answers. I’ll make a separate post at the appointed time.
AMA With AI Futures Project Team
April 25, 2025 · Original source
The AI Futures Project team will be answering your questions about AI, forecasting, and alignment here from 3:30 - 6 Pacific.
Inline links: AI Futures Project team
AI 2027 scenario
Inline links: AI 2027 scenario
AIFP blog
Inline links: AIFP blog
ACX Grants Results 2025
October 13, 2025 · Original source
Aaron Silverbook, $5K, for approximately five thousand novels about AI going well. This one requires some background: critics claim that since AI absorbs text as training data and then predicts its completion, talking about dangerous AI too much might “hyperstition” it into existence. Along with the rest of the AI Futures Project, I wrote a skeptical blog post, which ended by asking - if this were true, it would be great, right? You could just write a few thousand books about AI behaving well, and alignment would be solved! At the time, I thought I was joking. Enter Aaron, who you may remember from his previous adventures in mad dental science. He and a cofounder have been working on an “AI fiction publishing house” that considers itself state-of-the-art in producing slightly-less-sloplike AI slop than usual. They offered to literally produce several thousand book-length stories about AI behaving well and ushering in utopia, on the off chance that this helps. Our grant will pay for compute. We’re still working on how to get this included in training corpuses. He would appreciate any plot ideas you could give him to use as prompts.
Inline links: a skeptical blog post, mad dental science, would appreciate
Bengusu Ozcan, $30K, to raise awareness on AGI among EU policymakers. We were encouraged by the reception of the AI 2027 scenario in the United States. Bengusu’s team at the Center for Future Generations works on producing similar scenarios in Europe and explaining them to EU policy-makers. Our grant helps pay for their facilities, administrative overhead, and a quantitative dashboard add-on to the scenario presentations.
Open Thread 412
December 15, 2025 · Original source
2: I want to re-emphasize that I’m not employed by the AI Futures Project (the AI 2027 people) and don’t represent their organization. I just rewrite some of their drafts. I went on Dwarkesh with them because I wanted to promote their work, but in retrospect this probably made me seem like a more central part of their effort than I was or am. To make this clearer, I’ll also step back from writing for their blog.
Inline links: AI 2027
Links For February 2026
February 05, 2026 · Original source
37: AI Futures Project (the AI 2027 people) have published their updated timelines and takeoff model. Hard to summarize because they have a complex probability distribution and different team members think different things. For example:
Inline links: AI 2027, updated timelines and takeoff model
I don’t think this is quite right - I think they’re actually following their math and so when they redid the math and got different results they said so - but I agree it’s ironic that when everyone else had long timelines, AIFP went short, and now that everyone else is starting to come around, AIFP’s going longer again. AIFP has also responded to titotal’s critique of their timeline model here.
Inline links: responded to titotal’s critique of their timeline model here