Astral Codex Ten

ACX Survey

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ACX Survey

Article

ACX Survey is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 7 times across 7 issues between December 16, 2022 and January 06, 2025. The archive places it in contexts such as “I’d like to do an ACX Survey later this month”; “Don’t exhaust yourself so much that you refuse to take the ACX Survey in a few weeks”; “please take the ACX Survey, expected time 20 - 40 minutes”. It most often appears alongside Metaculus, Twitter, 2023 Prediction Benchmark Question Set.

Metadata

  • Category: Events
  • Mention count: 7
  • Issue count: 7
  • First seen: December 16, 2022
  • Last seen: January 06, 2025

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

2023 Prediction Contest
December 16, 2022 · Original source
This year I’m making it official, with a 50-question 2023 Prediction Benchmark Question Set. I hope that this can be used as a common standard to compare different forecasters and forecasting site (Manifold and Metaculus have already agreed to use it, and I’m hoping to get others). Also, I’d like to do an ACX Survey later this month, and this will let me try to correlate personality traits with forecasting accuracy.
Open Thread 255
December 19, 2022 · Original source
4: I may have somewhat fewer posts than usual over the next few weeks due to the holidays and some end-of-year business (hopefully including another ACX Survey), sorry.
Conventional wisdom is that intelligence-related studies replicate better than other fields, and Clearer Thinking is testing that now by trying to replicate 40 intelligence-related claims. They’re looking for experimental subjects to take their online tests; click here if you want to help. They promise you a breakdown of your cognitive strengths and weaknesses at the end, but be aware they won’t tell you your IQ and will only tell you percentile values relative to the other (highly selected) people who took their tests. Also, the Science Comprehension test is much more intense than the previous few; be prepared to put in a lot of thought if you don’t skip that one. Don’t exhaust yourself so much that you refuse to take the ACX Survey in a few weeks!
Inline links: click here
Open Thread 258
January 08, 2023 · Original source
1: In case you missed it the past few times: please take the ACX Survey, expected time 20 - 40 minutes, results will be used to satisfy my curiosity and test weird hypotheses.
Inline links: please take the ACX Survey
How Are The Gay Younger Brothers Doing?
October 04, 2023 · Original source
What about the ACX survey? I’m used to having larger sample sizes than the studies I try to replicate, but here that’s not true; Vilsmeier et al (discussed below) have 30,000 gays, whereas we only have about 1% of that number. Still here are the results: among people with zero older siblings, 4.5% were gay; for one sibling, 5.0%; two siblings, 5.3%; three siblings, 5.6%; four siblings, 9.0%. A t-test comparing gays and straights for number of siblings was marginally significant, p = 0.064. I know that’s higher than it’s supposed to be but this still increases my confidence in the hypothesis. Note that this is including both sexes of subject (ie male gays and female lesbians) and both sexes of sibling (ie older brothers and older sisters). For why I chose to analyze that way, see the rest of the post!
Can H-Y antigens explain the other birth order effects found on the ACX survey (and general firstborn advantage in math, physics, etc)? It’s a tempting hypothesis, since math, physics, and the ACX readership are all disproportionately male, and any process which gave people less-male-typical brains would drive people away from these things. But I found that the ACX birth order effect was social and not biological, and a Norwegian team found the same on their own data. Meanwhile, Bogaert’s study found the homosexuality effect was biological and not social. I don’t entirely trust either set of conclusions, but as long as they both stand, they weakly suggest these are different effects.
Inline links: the other birth order effects found on the ACX survey, math, physics, I found that the ACX birth order effect was social and not biological, a Norwegian team found the same on their own data
Open Thread 324
April 08, 2024 · Original source
1: This is your last chance to take the 2024 ACX Survey. I will close submissions Wednesday.
Inline links: the 2024 ACX Survey
Survey Results: PMS Symptoms
April 26, 2024 · Original source
I tried to replicate this on this year’s ACX survey, using these questions:
Inline links: this year’s ACX survey
As always, you can try to replicate my work using the publicly available ACX Survey Results. If you get slightly different answers than I did, it’s because I’m using the full dataset which includes a few people who didn’t want their answers publicly released. If you get very different answers than I did, it’s because I made a mistake, and you should tell me.
Inline links: ACX Survey Results
Open Thread 363
January 06, 2025 · Original source
1: This is your last chance to take this year’s ACX Survey. I will close responses on Tuesday.
Inline links: to take this year’s ACX Survey