Daniel Kahneman
Article
Daniel Kahneman is a recurring person in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 4 times across 4 issues between August 30, 2021 and April 20, 2023. The archive places it in contexts such as “Daniel Kahneman was a witch?”; “with guests including Daniel Kahneman”; “Daniel Kahneman has termed “adversarial collaboration.”“. It most often appears alongside COVID, Elon Musk, Metaculus.
Metadata
- Category: People
- Mention count: 4
- Issue count: 4
- First seen: August 30, 2021
- Last seen: April 20, 2023
Appears In
Related Pages
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- COVID (2 shared issues)
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- Elon Musk (2 shared issues)
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- Metaculus (2 shared issues)
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- MIRI (2 shared issues)
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- Nikos Bosse (2 shared issues)
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- Trevor Klee (2 shared issues)
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- 15 minute cities (1 shared issues)
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- 1DaySooner (1 shared issues)
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- 200 Concrete Problems In AI Interpretability (1 shared issues)
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- 2016 Washington carbon tax ballot initiative (1 shared issues)
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- 2022 ACX Forecasting contest (1 shared issues)
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- @GoodSciProject (1 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
I’m reminded of Gal and Rucker’s study on loss aversion. Hreha summed it up as “loss aversion doesn’t exist”, and I immediately jumped to “Oh, so it doesn’t replicate and the whole field is fraudulent and Daniel Kahneman was a witch?” But actually, this was the completely normal scientific process of noticing a phenomenon, doing some experiments to figure out what caused the phenomenon, and then arguing a bunch about how to interpret them, with new experiments being the tiebreaker. Again, loss aversion is real, but not fundamental, like centrifugal force in physics. The person who discovered centrifugal force wasn’t doing anything wrong, and it wouldn’t be fair to say that his experiments “failed to replicate”. Something we thought was an ontological primitive just turned out to be made of smaller parts, which is the story of science since Democritus.
Spencer Greenberg, $40,000, as seed money for his project to produce rapid replications of high-impact social science papers. Right now, when a new social science paper comes out, we often have to wait as long as several months to discover that it was false. Spencer and his team dream of a world where we can learn that almost immediately, soon enough that it's within the same news cycle and the journals involved feel kind of bad about it. This money will sponsor a pilot, after which he’ll be seeking additional funding - if you think you can help, you can reach him here. Spencer's been involved in rationality and EA about as long as either has existed, blogs at Optimize Everything, is the founder of ClearerThinking.org (which offers free digital tools related to rationality, decision-making and happiness) and runs the Clearer Thinking podcast, with guests including Daniel Kahneman, Tyler Cowen, and Sam Bankman-Fried.
I (Josh Rosenberg) am working with Phil Tetlock's research team on improving forecasting methods and practice, including through trying to facilitate increased dialogue between subject-matter experts and generalist forecasters. This post represents an example of what Daniel Kahneman has termed “adversarial collaboration.” So, despite some epistemic reluctance, Peter estimated the odds of nuclear war in an attempt to pinpoint areas of disagreement.
6: Really excellent adversarial collaboration between Daniel Kahneman and Matthew Killingsworth on the relationship between income and happiness. Kahneman previously found that more money didn’t make people happier past about $100K/year. Killingsworth previously found it did. They worked together and found that Kahneman was right for the least happy 20% of the population and Killingsworth was right for everyone else. This is a rare but welcome example of going from a failed replication to an actual understanding of what went wrong and what the truth is - well-written and highly-recommended.
Inline links: Really excellent adversarial collaboration