Astral Codex Ten

Byrne Hobart

4 min read

Byrne Hobart

Article

Byrne Hobart is a recurring person in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 5 times across 5 issues between March 15, 2021 and June 27, 2025. The archive places it in contexts such as “apparently Byrne Hobart would do very well in this system”; “Byrne Hobart had a similar (though less crazy) idea two years ago”; “Byrne Hobart discuss parenting and pronatalism”. It most often appears alongside Dylan Matthews, FDA, Trump.

Metadata

  • Category: People
  • Mention count: 5
  • Issue count: 5
  • First seen: March 15, 2021
  • Last seen: June 27, 2025

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

Mantic Monday: Mantic Matt Y
March 15, 2021 · Original source
I think this is the same as saying "this pundit could make money on the prediction markets", if we interpret the pundit's claim as being a bid. So one way of scoring pundits would be "how would an investment portfolio based on buying each claim made by this pundit do?" (apparently Byrne Hobart would do very well in this system)
Inline links: would do very well in this system
Open Thread 181
July 18, 2021 · Original source
2: Some good comments on the most recent prediction market post (also some less good ones - before you hit “post”, see if you’ve accidentally proven the stock market can’t exist). See eg Shaked running some of the numbers and finding it might work for a few very important people/issues, but maybe not for smaller things. Also, apparently Byrne Hobart had a similar (though less crazy) idea two years ago; I regret unintentionally copying him without credit. 3: “Comment” (or whatever) of the week is this post from the subreddit: I Believe We May Be At Another Point Like March 2020 With COVID. I haven’t looked into this as much as I want to, but the little I know about Delta is really concerning.
Inline links: running some of the numbers, two years ago, I Believe We May Be At Another Point Like March 2020 With COVID
23
October 31, 2023 · Original source
Local parents (including Malcolm and Simone Collins, Zvi Mowshowitz, and Byrne Hobart) discuss parenting and pronatalism (unless I missed it, there was no attempt to connect this to prediction markets, but it was a great talk)
Inline links: discuss parenting and pronatalism
Links For December 2024
December 17, 2024 · Original source
47: Byrne Hobart has a book out, Boom, arguing that economic bubbles are a productive force, then expanding that into a broader theory of history and stagnation. Review here, book available here.
Inline links: here, here
Your Review: Alpha School
June 27, 2025 · Original source
Alex Amplifier: The smallest segment. Austin is home to a small group of non-conformist “new media” personalities. I can name a dozen off the top of my head: Joe Rogan, Tim Ferriss, Lex Fridman, Andrew Huberman, Byrne Hobart, Razib Khan, Peter Attia, Matt Bateman, Chris Williamson, Ryan Holiday, David Parell, Rob Henderson and the Kill Tony guys. At least 3-4 from that list have kids in one of the Alpha schools.