Events: N

Named parties, readings, programs, and event series. This section collects the N slice of the category index.

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Use the title to open the reference entry. Use the caret to expand a compact inline dossier with source context, issue trail, related pages, and outbound links.

New Years2 mentions across 2 issues

New Years is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between July 07, 2021 and December 07, 2022. The archive places it in contexts such as "Until about New Years’, Sweden’s lockdown was less strict than average for Europe"; "10 AM to 3:30 PM on Christmas, Thanksgiving, and New Years". It most often appears alongside ABBA, Arkansas, Australia.

Article page: New Years
Mention count: 2
Issue count: 2
First seen: July 07, 2021
Last seen: December 07, 2022

Outbound links

Issue trail

Lockdown Effectiveness: Much More Than You Wanted To Know July 07, 2021
What Your Doctor Spends 80% Of Their Time Doing December 07, 2022

ABBA 1 shared issues
Arkansas 1 shared issues
Australia 1 shared issues
Belgium 1 shared issues
Blavatnik School of Government 1 shared issues

Source context

Lockdown Effectiveness: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

July 07, 2021 · Original source

What about in later phases of the pandemic? Here it gets complicated. Until about New Years’, Sweden’s lockdown was less strict than average for Europe, but stricter than for the rest of Scandinavia - presumably the rest of Scandinavia did so well that they relaxed a lot, even more than Sweden did. In the winter, when the second wave started, Sweden tightened some of its restrictions, until the stringency index says they matched the European average (though Europeans I’ve talked to disagree and say Sweden still felt much less strict than elsewhere). Then it had a pretty average-sized second wave (as did Denmark). But unlike other Scandinavian countries (though like France and Germany), Sweden had a severe third wave. Can we attribute this to a looser lockdown? I am nervous about doing this, since the stringency index says its lockdown strictness was average during this period, which is why I’m going to mostly be relying on the first-wave data.

What Your Doctor Spends 80% Of Their Time Doing

December 07, 2022 · Original source

"Hello! This is SmartSave pharmacy, home of compassionate savings on drugs, vitamins, and more. Our hours are from 9 AM to 5 PM Mondays through Fridays, 10 AM to 4 PM Saturdays, 10 AM to 3 PM Sundays, 10 AM to 3:30 PM on Christmas, Christmas Eve, Thanksgiving, and New Years, and 9:30 AM to 4:30 PM on Easter, Memorial Day, and Tu B'Shevat. We now have the COVID booster at SmartSave pharmacy! Did you know that COVID boosters can protect against all variants of COVID? Schedule your COVID booster now! We also have the SmartSave card, a great source for all prescription drug savings. ¡Hola! Esta es la farmacia SmartSave, hogar de ahorros compasivos en medicamentos, vitaminas y más. Nuestro horario es de 9 a. m. a 5 p. m. de lunes a viernes, de 10 a. m. a 4 p. m. los sábados, de 10 a. m. a 3 p. m. los domingos, de 10 a. :30 p. m. en Semana Santa, Día de los Caídos y Tu B'Shevat. ¡Ya tenemos el refuerzo COVID en farmacia SmartSave! ¿Sabía que los refuerzos de COVID pueden proteger contra todas las variantes de COVID? ¡Programe su refuerzo COVID ahora! Tambien tenemos la tarjeta SmartSave, una gran fuente para todos los ahorros en medicamentos recetados. If you would like to hear this introductory message again, press 1. Otherwise, stay on the line."

"Hello! This is SmartSave pharmacy, home of compassionate savings on drugs, vitamins, and more. Our hours are from 9 AM to 5 PM Mondays through Fridays, 10 AM to 4 PM Saturdays, 10 AM to 3 PM Sundays, 10 AM to 3:30 PM on Christmas, Thanksgiving, and New Years, and 9:30 AM to 4:30 PM on Easter, Memorial Day, and Tu B'Shevat. We now have the COVID booster at SmartSave pharmacy! Did you know that COVID boosters can protect against all variants of COVID? Schedule your COVID booster now! We now have the SmartSave card, a great source for all prescription drug savings. ¡Hola! Esta es la farmacia SmartSave, hogar de ahorros compasivos en medicamentos, vitaminas y más. Nuestro horario es de 9 a. m. a 5 p. m. de lunes a viernes, de 10 a. m. a 4 p. m. los sábados, de 10 a. m. a 3 p. m. los domingos, de 10 a. :30 p. m. en Semana Santa, Día de los Caídos y Tu B'Shevat. ¡Ya tenemos el refuerzo COVID en farmacia SmartSave! ¿Sabía que los refuerzos de COVID pueden proteger contra todas las variantes de COVID? ¡Programe su refuerzo COVID ahora! Ahora tenemos la tarjeta SmartSave, una gran fuente para todos los ahorros en medicamentos recetados. If you would like to hear this introductory message again, press 1. Otherwise, stay on the line."

Non-Book Review Contest2 mentions across 2 issues

Non-Book Review Contest is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between June 03, 2025 and March 11, 2026. The archive places it in contexts such as "It's time to narrow the 141 entries in the Non-Book Review Contest to about a dozen finalists"; "last year’s Non-Book Review contest". It most often appears alongside ACX Commentariat, Arnold Schoenberg, Atlantic.

Article page: Non-Book Review Contest
Mention count: 2
Issue count: 2
First seen: June 03, 2025
Last seen: March 11, 2026

Outbound links

Issue trail

Choose Nonbook Review Finalists 2025 June 03, 2025
Last Rights March 11, 2026

ACX Commentariat 1 shared issues
Arnold Schoenberg 1 shared issues
Atlantic 1 shared issues
Baldur's Gate 3 1 shared issues
Banerjee 1 shared issues

Source context

Choose Nonbook Review Finalists 2025

June 03, 2025 · Original source

It's time to narrow the 141 entries in the Non-Book Review Contest to about a dozen finalists. I can't read 141 reviews alone, so I need your help. Please pick as many as you have time for, read them, and rate them using this form.

Inline links: Non-Book Review Contest, using this form

Last Rights

March 11, 2026 · Original source

[This is a guest post, written by David Speiser, author of the Ollantay review in last year’s Non-Book Review contest. David provided the concept and original draft; Scott edited the final version. Remaining mistakes are likely mine (Scott’s)]

Inline links: Ollantay

Nanocar Race1 mentions across 1 issues

Nanocar Race is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between July 01, 2022 and July 01, 2022. The archive places it in contexts such as "The world’s smallest motorsport, the Nanocar Race, takes place on a 100 nm track". It most often appears alongside @a_centrism, @amplituhedron, AISafetySupport.com.

Reference entry: Nanocar Race
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: July 01, 2022
Last seen: July 01, 2022

Outbound links

Issue trail

Links For June July 01, 2022

@a_centrism 1 shared issues
@amplituhedron 1 shared issues
AISafetySupport.com 1 shared issues
BBC 1 shared issues
BBC Africa 1 shared issues

Source context

Links For June

July 01, 2022 · Original source

44: The world’s smallest motorsport, the Nanocar Race, takes place on a 100 nm track. The first competition ended when:

Inline links: Nanocar Race

Natal Con1 mentions across 1 issues

Natal Con is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between April 22, 2025 and April 22, 2025. The archive places it in contexts such as "Bryan Caplan on Natal Con, the pronatalist conference in Austin". It most often appears alongside 80,000 Hours, @msamalam, A Ketamine Addict’s Perspective On Musk.

Reference entry: Natal Con
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: April 22, 2025
Last seen: April 22, 2025

Outbound links

Issue trail

Links For April 2025 April 22, 2025

80,000 Hours 1 shared issues
@msamalam 1 shared issues
A Ketamine Addict’s Perspective On Musk 1 shared issues
Agent Village 1 shared issues
AGI Fridays 1 shared issues

Source context

Links For April 2025

April 22, 2025 · Original source

The article doesn’t explain why the board did such a poor job communicating their grievances, maybe it’s in the full book. It does sound like part of board’s problem was that they were leaning heavily on Mira Murati but she was playing both sides off against each other. 23: And the Forethought Institute has been putting out some great analysis lately, including Will AI R&D Automation Cause An Intelligence Explosion?, by Daniel Eth and Tom Davidson, and AI Enabled Coups: How A Small Group Could Use AI To Seize Power, by Tom Davidson, Lukas Finnveden, and Rose Hadshar. And here’s Davidson defending the coups paper on the 80,000 Hours podcast. 24: Agent Village is a sort of "reality show” where a group of AI agents has to work together to complete some easy-for-human tasks (currently: pick a charity and raise money for it) and you get to watch. 25: University of Austin promises approximately-automatic admission to anyone with a 1460+ on their SATs (or similar scores on other standardized tests). 26: Cremieux on birth order effects (X). His conclusion: “The birth order effect is social. It is driven by parental interactions and investments, and sibling interactions that are dynamic with respect to age.” 27: Claim from new paper, via Alex Tabarrok: “Prohibiting the FDA from regulating e-cigarettes reduced smoking attributable mortality by nearly 10% on average each year from 2011-2019 for a total savings of some 677,000 life-years, or approximately 1/3 the estimated benefit of early HIV/AIDS drugs through year 2000”. Related: FDA will not regulate lab-developed tests for the near future. 28: Bryan Caplan on Natal Con, the pronatalist conference in Austin. My strongest opinion on this is that they should either change the name or hold the next one in Natal, Brazil. 29: Am I living in a conservative filter bubble? I keep hearing how we need a “reckoning” over the government’s disastrous anti-COVID policies, but the latest YouGov polling suggests that large majorities of Americans continue to support those policies: 30: A California legislator proposed a bill that would ban OpenAI’s nonprofit → forprofit conversion, backed by a suspiciously specific interest group, the Coalition For AI Nonprofit Integrity. I assume this is either Elon Musk or our conspiracy; not sure which. But their plan was stymied when the legislature “amended” the bill to remove its entire text and replace it with unrelated text about airplane loans. The legislator apparently got cold feet after being warned it might inflict collateral damage on other companies, and because of the way the California legislature works it’s sometimes more efficient to turn doomed bills into other bills than to simply withdraw them. 31: EthnoGuessr is a GeoGuessr variant: it shows you pictures of an ethnic group, you click on the map where you think they’re from. Warning that if you play this too much you might get into race science. Their source, humanphenotypes.net, divides humanity into a hundred or so ethnic groups. Although they cite sources, I don’t understand the philosophical basis of the classification. Also, 100 images is so few that you start memorizing them after a while. I hope they move on to real pictures of real people in naturalistic situations. Remember, asking where someone is from ‘originally’ is a microaggression, but inferring it yourself based on their “mildly platyrrhine, high-rooted nose” is A-OK! 32: Farmkind has a new version of their calculator to determine meat offsets, eg how much do you have to donate to animal welfare charities to compensate for the animals you harm by eating meat. Does the average person really eat chicken 9x a week? 33: Not going to waste your time listing every bad thing Trump has done this month, but among the worst is sending innocent people to horrible Salvadorean prisons (including one person picked up because he had an autism awareness tattoo in honor of his brother, which they mistook for a gang tattoo), then refusing to bring them back. I have seen a couple of people defend denying immigrants due process; I assume they will not be moved by humanitarian arguments, but I think there are some more practical considerations: Zaid Jilani points out that if immigrants don’t get a right to due process, citizens also don’t get a right to due process, because the government can kidnap citizens, claim they’re immigrants, and the citizens can’t prove otherwise since they don’t get due process.

Inline links: https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WFgK!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6448a778-3290-4c85-9480-d4f78f9be960_916x255.png, Will AI R&D Automation Cause An Intelligence Explosion?, AI Enabled Coups: How A Small Group Could Use AI To Seize Power, here’s, Agent Village, promises approximately-automatic admission, Cremieux on birth order effects (X), new paper, Alex Tabarrok, FDA will not regulate lab-developed tests for the near future, Bryan Caplan on Natal Con, Natal, Brazil, the latest YouGov polling, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HGBp!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd049433b-1cf5-442a-9d17-4be3a7846d61_760x370.png, Coalition For AI Nonprofit Integrity, “amended”, the way the California legislature works, EthnoGuessr, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Y3AO!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbde5185a-2b93-4c07-904b-66d2c2311a53_1140x1033.png, humanphenotypes.net, a new version of their calculator, including, Zaid Jilani

National Defense Authorization Act1 mentions across 1 issues

National Defense Authorization Act is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between December 10, 2025 and December 10, 2025. The archive places it in contexts such as "tried to slip a hardline preemption deal ... into the National Defense Authorization Act". It most often appears alongside 100 Above The Park, 2024 Post-Mortem Of Neoreaction, 23andme.

Reference entry: National Defense Authorization Act
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: December 10, 2025
Last seen: December 10, 2025

Outbound links

Issue trail

Links For December 2025 December 10, 2025

100 Above The Park 1 shared issues
2024 Post-Mortem Of Neoreaction 1 shared issues
23andme 1 shared issues
@StatisticUrban 1 shared issues
A16Z 1 shared issues

Source context

Links For December 2025

December 10, 2025 · Original source

…and raised $1.2 million on his first day, breaking fundraising records (I was told this was because of pro-AI-safety EAs, but others credit AIPAC and the Israel lobby). And most recently, Jami Floyd, one of Bores’ opponents and a possible beneficiary of anti-Bores spending, has condemned it (X) and demanded that the AI industry stop trying to help her. Impressive work from everybody. Related: New $50 million pro-AI-regulation SuperPAC, I assume EA-linked but have no special knowledge. 22: Related: Pre-emption is when Congress blocks states from making legislation on a topic, saying it will decide all the laws itself. The states have signaled willingness to regulate AI pretty hard, so Big Tech has been pushing for AI pre-emption to (in their opinion) prevent an overly complicated patchwork of regulations, or (in their opponents’ opinion) shift everything to a Republican Congress that will drop the ball on regulation entirely. After their first attempt in June was defeated by a coalition of anti-tech liberals and anti-tech conservatives, we discussed (1, 2) the effort by moderates on both sides to create a compromise proposal which pre-empted state laws but guaranteed good federal regulation on important topics. The most recent news is that extremists sidelined the moderates and tried to slip a hardline preemption deal with no compromises into the National Defense Authorization Act, a defense budget bill which is notoriously secretive and hard for the public to learn about. This didn’t work; some of the same coalition, plus a group of Republican state legislators including Ron DeSantis, pressured the GOP to drop it. The next battleground is a potential Trump executive order; although Trump cannot constitutionally ban states from regulating AI, he will threaten them with various consequences like lawsuits or withdrawal of federal funding. The buzz in the policy circles I’m in is that this might backfire; blue state politicians love starting fights with Trump in order to look tough to their blue state electorates. No, no, please don’t give me headlines like “TRUMP CONDEMNS GAVIN NEWSOM FOR TRYING TO PROTECT CALIFORNIA’S CHILDREN FROM AI SLOP”! Anything but that! 23: Related: Trump has decided to sell some of America’s best AI chips to China, supercharging their AI development and crippling ours. The most charitable read is that his administration doesn’t really believe AI matters so they think it’s fine to forfeit it for short-term gain; the least charitable that it’s downstream of the companies involved paying Trump enormous bribes in hopes of exactly this outcome . We’re headed for the dumbest possible world, where we sacrifice our chance to thoughtfully address AI’s social impacts because “tHaT wOuLd mAkE uS lOsE tHe rAcE wItH ChInA”, then throw away the race with China in one fell swoop by handing them our technology for no reason. Shame on everyone involved, especially the people who shout over any discussion of safety with “bUt ChInA” yet have stayed totally silent about this. Our best hope now is that China refuses the chips, either because they want to privilege their own tech companies, or because they think we can’t possibly be this stupid and it must be some kind of spy plot. 24: Related: how the American public’s opinions on AI are changing (from David Shor, h/t Daniel Eth on X): If this is to be taken seriously, AI is already a bigger political issue than abortion, climate change, or the environment. I fail my 2023 prediction that there was only a 20% chance this would happen by 2028. 25: Related: Bernie Sanders in The Guardian: “There is a very real fear that, in the not-so-distant future, a super-intelligent AI could replace humans in controlling the planet.” The Left has a complicated relationship with existential risk from AI: they really hate AI, which in theory should push them towards yet another reason to be against it. But they hate AI so much that they need to believe every negative thing about it at the same time, and one of those negative things is that it’s just a scam and will never work, and this naturally pushes against being concerned about x-risk. But as AI improves, will the “just a scam” position become less tenable, shunting the associated psychic energy into other reasons to hate AI (including x-risk concerns)? 26: Qualia Research Institute has released a video describing some of the work they’ve been doing the past year - The Oscilleditor: An Algorithmic Breakthrough for Psychedelic Visual Replication (1080p•⚠️SEIZURE): 27: Jesse Arm (X): “A majority of American rabbinical students are now women. Most are also LGBTQ. That includes Modern Orthodoxy. Remove Modern Orthodoxy and the numbers climb even higher.” Clergy have always served as spiritual counselors; as religions liberalize and other roles become less important, the therapist role starts to predominate. But 75% of therapists in the US are female; at the limit of liberalization where clergyman = therapist, we should expect the same gender ratio. 28: The latest news on the COVID origins debate: scientists find a naturally-occuring bat coronavirus with a COVID-like furin cleavage site. This is a point in favor of the natural origins hypothesis, since the second-best argument for lab leak was that COVID’s furin cleavage site was too strange to evolve naturally. But I think arguments that lab leak has “fallen apart” are premature: the best argument (COVID emerged only a few miles from the biggest coronavirus gain-of-function lab in the Eastern Hemisphere) remains strong. I update from something like 95% chance it’s natural to something like 96%, but not 99.99% or anything. And here’s a lab leaker arguing that COVID’s furin cleavage site is out-of-frame and so still more unnatural-looking than the one on the recently-discovered bat virus. 29: Nicholas Decker (econ blogger, famous for his controversial autistic takes and Secret Service visit) has a dating doc. Most interesting section is the one about children: he wants to have them, but doesn’t think they should be genetically related to him. From here: If this appeals to you, you can find his contact info on the document. Related: Governor Jared Polis of Colorado is a fan of Nicholas Decker and Richard Hanania. 30: Matt Yglesias comes out as aphantasic (unable to see images in his “mind’s eye”). He says that contra the usual perspective that frames this as a deficit, he finds it helpful. For example, once he got assaulted, and he remembers on an intellectual level that it happened, but since “I wasn’t taking pictures of myself getting kicked in the head so, as far as I’m concerned, it’s like it happened to someone else” (Matt usually has good instincts, so I’m surprised he uses an example which will be such catnip to his conservative critics). He thinks it makes him a better reasoner / statistics blogger / effective altruist to be able to “get a statistically valid view of the situation, not overindex on the happenstance of your life.” For what it’s worth, I’ll give my contrary data point - I think of myself as a reasoner / statistics blogger / effective altruist in a pretty similar vein as Matt, but AFAICT my visual imagination is totally normal; if other people are having their emotions yanked around by vivid images, that’s a skill issue. 31: Lakshya Jain in The Argument: The COVID political backlash [to the Democratic Party] has disappeared. Despite the narrative, polls show that voters don’t favor or disfavor either party over COVID, mostly still think school closures were necessary, and are about evenly split on vaccine mandates. I guess I can’t disagree with this poll - it seems well-done - but I still wonder whether something is being missed. Maybe it didn’t make the ~50% of voters who are naturally liberal desert the cause, but it energized conservatives in a way that might otherwise not have happened? Related, from Rob Wiblin on X, on balance Britons think the government response to COVID was not strict enough. 32: Related: Back when neoreaction was a big deal, I occasionally discussed posts by neoreactionary blogger Spandrell of Bloody Shovel. If you’re wondering what happened to him, you can read his 2024 Post-Mortem Of Neoreaction here, where he discusses how he fell out of love with the movement (warning: he has not fallen out of love with racial slurs). As a former fascist sympathizer, I can see why [fascism is on the downswing]. The allure of fascism in 2024 is much, much diminished. For a few reasons. A big one was COVID. See, the point of fascism is that Collective Action is necessary to have nice things. We need a strong government committed to the good of the people. Yarvin showed his preference early when he started his new Substack by quoting Cicero’s phrase “Salus populi suprema lex”. The health of the people is the most important law. Cicero wasn’t a fascist of course, nor is Yarvin really; a big point of fascism is to narrowly define the populus as an ethnic group with demonstrable ties to blood. That makes the government’s ties to the people stronger, increasing their commitment to do Good Collective Action. Which is important. Very important. A lot of good things can come of intelligently done Collective Action. Fascist Italy made the trains run on time. Nazi Germany fixed the terrible Weimar economy. East Asian countries are all effectively fascist states, if with less ideological baggage (yellows just aren’t like that), and they are all nice, clean, safe places with healthy economies. Fascism is not a panacea but it works, when you let it. Strong government can be pretty neat. So why is strong government less appealing these days? Well, COVID happened. And our governments were pretty damn strong in dealing with it. They made strong laws and enforced them. And what did they do with their power? Absolutely retarded shit. They destroyed the world economy and made 95% of people completely miserable for 18 months. Up to 3 long years in some places. Again, as an Orient enjoyer I was very sympathetic of strong effective government. My life has been pretty cozy thanks to it for the past decades. But after seeing boomers, hypochondriacs, and menopausal women take the reins and use it against healthy people, I’m fucking done with strong effective government. Fuck that shit, I’m out. I don’t want to see strong effective government ever again. I was very lucky that I was out of China in November 2019. It was a fluke really. I moved to the Golden Triangle after that and the law of the jungle was much, much nicer during the Doctors Plague of 2020-2022. But I spent a few months in Europe during the time and man, that was brutal. Not just seeing how retarded governments were; the level of compliance by the people was so disheartening. Imagine being a sincere fascist and seeing your people behave like that. These are my people? My Volk? Am I supposed to sacrifice life and limb for the salus of this populus? Fuck that. Let them cook, they deserve everything that’s coming to them [...] Is there a way to make the body healthy again? I do think so. I think there’s still place for a successor right wing ideology which is neither Christian fundamentalism or robot worship. And it will happen; but it won’t happen on Twitter. Maybe it can happen on Urbit, or right here in this site. I have some ideas myself, and I invite you to join me and build this together. It would be funny if the solution to the paradox Jain highlights was that for every time a COVID lockdown turned a liberal into a conservative, it turned one fascist into a moderate, for a net rightward shift of zero. 33: Also from an Argument poll: In a hypothetical Presidential matchup, Gavin Newsom beats JD Vance 54-46. I’m split between the usual heuristic of ignoring any polling more than a year before an election, and the fact that this is a remarkably big lead for polarized 21st century America. 34: Jerl wades into the David Hume on miracles debate. 35: AI Teddy Bears: A Brief Investigation. The good news is that your child’s AI teddy bear is hard to jailbreak and probably will not tell them where to find guns: The other good news is that somehow they don’t charge a subscription, which makes them a way to get usually-subscription-only AI models for free. How is this possible? “[The most likely hypothesis is that] Witpaw is an adorable piece of spyware and he’s selling my data to the CCP”. 36: This month’s anti-people-named-Sacks content: NYT on Trump AI czar David Sacks’ conflicts of interest; New Yorker on whether neurologist Oliver Sacks used his case studies to work through his own issues rather than presenting them accurately. [EDITED TO ADD: I originally framed it this way as a joke, but on further research I think David and Oliver are related. Wikipedia says that Oliver was first cousins with Israel statesman Abba Eban, and that Abba Eban was born to Lithuanian Jewish parents in Cape Town. David Sacks’ bio says he was born to Jewish parents in Cape Town, and this article specifies that they were Lithuanian. I doubt there were too many Lithuanian Jewish families named Sacks in mid-1900s Cape Town, so sure, related!) 37: Orca Sciences: There Has To Be A Better Way To Make Titanium. Titanium is a great metal - strong, light, and tough. If we had cheap titanium, it could revolutionize manufacturing the way cheap steel and aluminum did in previous eras. So why don’t we? Not because titanium is rare: it’s “the 9th most common element in the earth’s crust”. Rather, it’s very complicated and expensive to extract from its ore. Some kind of breakthrough in titanium extraction processes always seems tantalizingly close, but has never quite materialized. Is there any hope? 38: If Asians Are Lactose Intolerant, Why All The Milk Tea? Lactose intolerance has confused me for a long time - 23andMe tells me that I’m lactose intolerant, but I drink milk regularly without problems, so what’s up? This post’s answer: lactose-intolerant people who don’t usually drink milk will get sick if they start suddenly. Lactose-intolerant people who drink milk regularly since childhood develop gut microbiota that can digest milk, but which demand an expensive “tax” in calories. Lactose-tolerant people will always be able to digest milk and absorb all the calories themselves. 39: How do different majors change college students’ political beliefs? No surprise that the humanities and social sciences shift people left; no surprise that business and economics shift them right. I was a little surprised that engineering shifts people right a little, and that Education of all things shifts people right (albeit only slightly). How is that even possible? Are these people coming in as Mao Zedong and leaving as “only” Leon Trotsky? Also, Political Science is exactly neutral, lol. [EDIT: I misunderstood, they’re using natural sciences as a zero point, this is a reasonable choice but slightly changes the interpretation] 40: Kindkristin: Language models improved my mental health. 41: More floor employment, from the WSJ (h/t @LaocoonofTroy): Big Paychecks Can’t Woo Enough Sailors For America’s Commercial Fleet: “Straight out of college, graduates from the country’s maritime academies can earn more than $200,000 as a commercial sailor, with free food and private accommodations... Despite the pay and perks, maritime jobs go begging, and it is raising national-security concerns.” Other selling points include “six months vacation, live wherever you want, and you’re serving the nation” and onboard “gyms, connectivity, and cuisine”. The catch is that you have to be at sea for months at a time. 42: Study (h/t @KierkegaardEmil): there was minimal “learning loss” from COVID school closures, best estimate is “0.02 standard deviations per 100 days of school closure”. I correctly predicted this back in 2021, but I also wrote in March of this year about how there’s been a general decline in NAEP scores since then. It seems like maybe a student having their specific school closed for longer than other schools didn’t hurt them, but some sort of general cultural change, maybe related to COVID, did hurt. 43: Sam Bankman-Fried’s mother on why she thinks his trial was unfair. SBF is appealing his conviction and will probably be making some of these same points in court. Can’t find a prediction market directly on the appeal, but this one says only 15% chance he serves under 10 years, this one says 15% chance of a Trump pardon, so it doesn’t seem like there’s much room for him to be freed (or get a significantly shorter sentence) on appeal. And Wired says that only 5-10% of appeals like these succeed. 44: Related: Trump pardons Juan Orlando Hernandez, former Honduran president extradited to the US for narco-corruption. Some sources are trying to find a Prospera angle - Prospera and other ZEDEs were approved under JOH’s administration, and the Prosperans seem to have good MAGAworld connections - but I don’t think this is their top priority, and I don’t know if it requires much explanation for Trump to be pro-right-wing Latin American politicians convicted by the Biden administration. More interesting is that apparently JOH and SBF were cellmates (X), “SBF spent extensive time helping JOH with trial prep” and SBF told an interviewer that “Juan Orlando is the most innocent prisoner I’ve met, myself included.” ChatGPT is not impressed with the Trump/SBF case for JOH’s innocence. Related: JOH’s conservative party on track to win this month’s extremely-close Honduran elections, great news for Prospera if it happens. 45: The “100 Above The Park” building in St Louis (h/t Bobby Fijan on X): 46: The death toll of the ongoing Sudan genocide has risen to about 150,000. Nicholas Kristof writes that the world has once again failed to prevent atrocities, and argues that the most important point of leverage is pressure on the United Arab Emirates, which is arming the genociders. Sam Kriss also writes about the situation in The World’s First Matcha Labubu Genocide, but is unimpressed with Kristof’s take: Sudan is passed over in a deeply uncomfortable silence. The absolute most you can do is blame the Emiratis. From what I’ve seen, more people seem to be appalled at the UAE for its frankly marginal role in arming the RSF than at the RSF itself. This is the approved way of understanding any inscrutably indigenous foreign conflict: you just worm out any third-party involvement and then act like you’ve solved the whole thing. I side with Kristof here, for reasons that Sam himself touches on later in his piece, in a section comparing Darfur with Gaza. It would be very easy to make people care about Darfur again. All it would take is a loud, vocal contingent of RSF apologists in the Western media. I agree, but would frame it less cynically: the reason Westerners pay attention to Gaza is that there’s a lever to push: not only does America support Israel, but many of their friends support Israel, so they can imagine convincing America or at least their friends to stop, and at least feel like there is some remote chance of making a small difference (and in fact, Trump getting mad at Israel and deciding to pressure them was decisive in effecting the cease-fire). On the other hand, we don’t have many levers to affect ethnic Baggara in the Rapid Support Forces of Sudan, so it doesn’t really feel useful to write blog posts arguing that they should stop; obviously they should stop, nobody disagrees with this, and it goes without saying - so nobody says it. But the US does support the UAE, and many of our friends like the UAE or at least go there on vacation, so maybe it’s possible to have make some small difference by embarrassing them. 4D chess take is that Sam Kriss agrees with all of this, but “loudly” and “vocally” argued against it to give people like me a hook to write about this genocide with, in which case I thank him for his sacrifice. It would also be nice to be able to donate, but I don’t know who to trust in the region - other than Doctors Without Borders, who are usually pretty good. 47: The AI Futures Project (group of AI-will-be-fast intellectuals) and the AI As A Normal Technology team (group of AI-will-be-slow intellectuals) wrote an adversarial collaboration in Asterisk explaining what they agree on, for example: That there’s an important distinction between existing AI and “strong AGI”

Inline links: breaking fundraising records, has condemned it (X), New $50 million pro-AI-regulation SuperPAC, 1, 2, tried to slip a hardline preemption deal with no compromises into the National Defense Authorization Act, pressured the GOP to drop it, a potential Trump executive order, Trump has decided to sell some of America’s best AI chips to China, paying Trump enormous bribes in hopes of exactly this outcome, especially the people who shout over any discussion of safety with “bUt ChInA”, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mg6X!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6bbc756d-32ce-41d1-9652-59fb3444765d_1024x1024.png, Daniel Eth on X, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kpou!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ada4ca1-d833-4fd1-b85a-5982191ce455_679x305.jpeg, my 2023 prediction, Bernie Sanders in, The Oscilleditor: An Algorithmic Breakthrough for Psychedelic Visual Replication (1080p•⚠️SEIZURE), Jesse Arm (X), scientists find a naturally-occuring bat coronavirus with a COVID-like furin cleavage site, has “fallen apart”, 95% chance, here’s a lab leaker arguing that, has a dating doc, From here, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ByQP!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F90d5dfc6-106a-4afa-9250-371a21c77576_743x133.png, is a fan of, Matt Yglesias comes out as aphantasic, The COVID political backlash [to the Democratic Party] has disappeared., from Rob Wiblin on X, Post-Mortem Of Neoreaction, wades into the David Hume on miracles debate., AI Teddy Bears: A Brief Investigation, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cOGB!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F20a7acea-b463-485c-8295-f0a5768381d9_416x709.png, Trump AI czar David Sacks’, neurologist Oliver Sacks, says, Abba Eban was, bio, this article, There Has To Be A Better Way To Make Titanium, If Asians Are Lactose Intolerant, Why All The Milk Tea?, How do different majors change college students’ political beliefs?, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xR53!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa36d404d-9574-4e25-93bb-7ef4d2ca9f9a_940x606.jpeg, as a zero point, Language models improved my mental health, floor employment, @LaocoonofTroy, Big Paychecks Can’t Woo Enough Sailors For America’s Commercial Fleet, Study, @KierkegaardEmil, correctly predicted this, wrote in March of this year, Sam Bankman-Fried’s mother on why she thinks his trial was unfair, appealing his conviction, this one, this one, Trump pardons Juan Orlando Hernandez, Some sources, JOH and SBF were cellmates (X), is not impressed, on track to win, Bobby Fijan on X, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Gj0x!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd354a169-6127-4815-85b5-940414c632eb_603x900.jpeg, Nicholas Kristof writes, The World’s First Matcha Labubu Genocide, and in fact, Trump getting mad at Israel and deciding to pressure them was decisive in effecting the cease-fire, Doctors Without Borders, an adversarial collaboration in Asterisk explaining what they agree on

National Defense Education Act1 mentions across 1 issues

National Defense Education Act is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between December 09, 2022 and December 09, 2022. The archive places it in contexts such as "For example: National Defense Education Act. It's no coincidence this was signed the year after Sputnik". It most often appears alongside 417th Marquess of Cornwallshireshire, ACX, ACX.

Reference entry: National Defense Education Act
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: December 09, 2022
Last seen: December 09, 2022

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Highlights From The Comments On Bobos In Paradise December 09, 2022

417th Marquess of Cornwallshireshire 1 shared issues
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Highlights From The Comments On Bobos In Paradise

December 09, 2022 · Original source

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National Marian Congress1 mentions across 1 issues

National Marian Congress is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between October 01, 2025 and October 01, 2025. The archive places it in contexts such as "where 30,000 people attended the National Marian Congress". It most often appears alongside 1910s Portugal, 1999 British eclipse, 2017 US eclipse.

Reference entry: National Marian Congress
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: October 01, 2025
Last seen: October 01, 2025

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The Fatima Sun Miracle: Much More Than You Wanted To Know October 01, 2025

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The Fatima Sun Miracle: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

October 01, 2025 · Original source

…unfortunately a 25 mile circle centered on Merate includes the city of Milan, population 1.1 million, which produced no reports of unusual solar activity. And Milan had clear line-of-sight to Ghiaie and Merate, and so probably better viewing conditions than Tavernola, which (you can see from the map above) has some intervening hills. Might the miraculous light source have been like a spotlight, aimed in only one direction - that is, east to Ghiaie and Tavernola, but not southwest to Milan? This would contradict Dalleur’s Fatima analysis, since one of the most dramatic testimonies comes from the city of Minde, which is on the opposite side of the presumed light source from Fatima. I don’t really think it’s possible to maintain a theory where this phenomenon gets transmitted through normal geography. 3.2: Mary Such Cases At this point, the reader will get the general idea, and we can start moving faster, as there is a large amount of ground to cover. Heroldsbach, Germany, 1949: The Virgin appeared to four young girls. Rumors spread, crowds gathered, and on December 8th, 10,000 people saw another sun miracle. Here are about a hundred testimonies, gathered with typical German thoroughness. An expert meteorologist brought in to investigate summarized them as follows: If one now considers the testimony in detail, one encounters a surprisingly small agreement of the observations made. One witness has seen a red sun, the other a yellow, an orange or pink with blue and green, or a whitish sun. A silver one was also observed or all the colors mentioned in colorful change. One wants to have observed an oversized, the other a first small or normal, but then rapidly enlarging and rushing towards the viewer in a frightening way. Most of the witnesses noticed that the solar disk rotated very quickly in two or three phases of rotation for about a quarter of an hour. The Catholic Church condemned the apparition and miracle as fake, even going so far as to excommunicate the child-seers. Later they relented slightly and un-excommunicated them, but their official position is still that nothing supernatural happened - this sun miracle was merely an overly enthusiastic hallucination! Necedah, Wisconsin, USA, 1949: A housewife named Mary Ann Van Hoof claimed to have seen the Virgin Mary. This is among the less plausible visitations: Van Hoof, who was raised Spiritualist, also claimed to have seen Joan of Arc, George Washington, and Abraham Lincoln. The messages she channeled seemed less like tidings of peace and love than like a particularly unhinged Truth Social post, and included warnings about the Rothschilds. Still, rumors spread, crowds gathered, and on August 15 1950, 50,000 - 100,000 people showed up hoping for a miracle. As for what happened next, Wikipedia says that “witness accounts vary significantly”. WaPo says that “observers saw nothing unusual” and LIFE mentions nothing out of the ordinary. But other sources report sun miracles, and I was eventually able to track down three testimonials in a summary of articles from a local newspaper, which states that “after a rainy morning…”: It was about noon when Van Hoof came out of the house and a woman screamed, “By God, it’s really true,” and fell to her knees. Then it happened that the Rapids woman and so many in the crowd saw the sun, covered with a dark, greenish gray disk, spinning down toward the earth. And she testified, “I thought the end of the earth was coming and fell to my knees.” A Pittsville woman also described the sun spinning closer to the earth. “I and many other people, fell to our knees in awe.” The Daily Tribune visited the Oct. 7, 1950, event — a 25-minute “last” message from the Mediatrix to the “throng” of 50,000. Responding to this seventh vision, gasps were heard from women who again saw the sun behaving oddly. A Catholic priest told reporters he saw the sun whirl clockwise and jump. The Catholic Church condemned the apparition as fake, and declared van Hoof’s followers “a cult”. Lubbock, Texas, USA, 1988. Really? Really? Nothing could be more natural than for the Queen of Heaven to appear to kind-hearted shepherd children in Portugal. Even an appearance in war-torn West Germany makes a certain amount of sense. But Lubbock, Texas? I suppose this must have been how the cool Sanhedrin members felt when they learned the Christ hailed from Nazareth. But that doesn’t make it any better. Anyway, rumors spread, crowds gathered, and on August 15, 1988, about 10,000 people witnessed the Miracle of the Sun. Here is an indirect testimonial, a man describing his wife’s experience: A large crowd had gathered outside Saint John Neumann Church on that very hot August afternoon on the Feast of the Assumption. Mass was being said in the afternoon, and around the time of the Consecration, suddenly her cousin’s wife (a convert, if you remember) said “look at the sun”. When she did, the sun was pulsating, it would look like it was coming down to earth and then go back again, it spun around in circles, much the same as what took place in Fatima in 1917...and changed colors. She looked at it directly for 15 minutes or so without any damage to her eyes. As my wife looked around, the people in the crowd seemed to be bathed in various colors. During all this my wife even saw The Blessed Mother. The Blessed Mother was extending her arms in what appeared to be a welcoming gesture. But not everyone had the same experience that day: her cousin’s wife and our son saw and believed instantly, but her cousin and brother saw nothing at all. Why did some see these events and others did not? We don’t know...not enough faith? Or perhaps they had enough faith, and they didn’t need a sign! Here we have something special: according to the Los Angeles Times, one pilgrim took a poll about who saw what: A push was on to assemble evidence for the commission in a lawyerly way. Testimonies from 247 people present at the feast had been recorded. The statements were transcribed by volunteers and stored in a computer. Joe James himself indexed the information: 186 had witnessed the spinning of the sun; 75 had seen the Virgin; 64 Jesus; 18 an angel. How could anyone ignore the bulk of such documentation? We don’t know how the 247 people were selected, but very naively it seems like 2/3 of those present saw the sun spinning. This also matches the first person listing 2/4 family members. (the Catholic Church withheld judgment, refusing to either endorse or condemn the visions) Benin City, Nigeria, 2017. On October 13 2017, crowds gathered around the world to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the Fatima miracle. One such commemoration happened in Benin City, Nigeria, where 30,000 people attended the National Marian Congress and witnessed the re-dedication of Nigeria to Mary’s Sacred Heart. As the speakers commemorated the Fatima event . . . . . . someone pointed to the sky and shouted “It’s happening again!”. It was, indeed, happening again. You can read about ten testimonies here. I’ll quote just one, from Brother Joseph Obiemeka Azih: Immediately after the 3:00 p.m. Divine Mercy prayers, there were brief showers of rain. Then came sudden brightness of the sun, which was hitherto hidden behind layers of dark cloud. We also observed rather surprisingly the mysterious shooting of the sun forward and backward. Intermittently emitting of powerful bluish and golden colors of light from “Our Lady clothed with the Sun.” The sight was indescribably beautiful. We were busy staring at the bright sun steadily for more than twenty minutes without blinking an eye even for a second! People around us were dazzling and reflecting these bluish and golden colors on their dresses and faces. What a mystery! More than 30,000 people inside the arena were seen peering at “the dancing of the sun” bewildered. The miracle lasted for more than 45 minutes after which there was [a] heavy downpour which the Bishops present said [were] “showers of blessing.” I was able to confirm that some of the people whose testimonies were listed on the site are real Nigerian Catholics whose existence is attested in other sources. Two weeks later, there was another Nigerian commemoration of the Fatima anniversary, in Lagos, and a sun miracle happened at that one too. 3.3: Made You Gaze At Medjugorje Medjugorje (Bosnia, 1981) is in many ways a typical Marian apparition site, much like the ones on the list above. Child-seers, warnings to repent, sun miracles, you know the story by now. But in Medjugorje, the miracles keep happening. Pilgrims - or, more cynically, tourists - go there just to see the sun miracles, and many come back satisfied. You can find blogs by people who went to Medjugorje hoping to see a sun miracle, and on their first or fifth or eighth or whatever day, there’s a crowd of people, yelling and pointing at the sun, and they look up and see it too. Here’s an account from Catholic blogger Father Dwight Longernecker: I was an Anglican priest living in England, in 1985 when I was invited by a group of Anglicans and Catholics to visit Medjugorje. I didn’t want to go. Being a former Evangelical-fundamentalist I wasn’t too keen on apparitions of the Blessed Virgin. I opted out. They insisted. I dug in my heels. They said someone else would pay for it. I didn’t want to go. They cajoled and twisted my arm until I said ‘yes’ [...] On our second day there I sat on the balcony of our guesthouse with a large woman named Eleanor. As we began the rosary I looked up and the sun was a blaze of light in the sky. I looked down to the car parked below and the sun was reflected in the hood of the car as a blaze of light. Eleanor and I prayed the rosary together. I had my eyes closed. At 6:20 Eleanor gave me an elbow in the ribs and pointed. The sun was now a disc of white light in the sky like a Eucharistic host. Then as I watched it began to spin, first clockwise then anti clockwise. Sparks spit out from the rim of the sun like a firework. I looked down and the sun was a white spinning disc on the hood of the car. I don’t think this would have happened if it was just my eyes playing tricks on me. Plus, Eleanor saw it too. That’s why she gave me an elbow in the ribs. I am not sure how long this lasted, but when we spoke about it to our fellow pilgrims they said many people in the town square had reported the same phenomenon. Some of these tourists capture the phenomenon on video. Unfortunately, the videos are of three types: Videos of a bunch of people pointing at the sun, and shouting the word “Miracle!” in various languages, and obviously looking extremely excited, but the sun itself looks totally normal, and the person taking the video apologizes and says that their camera isn’t good enough to capture it.

Inline links: Here, Wikipedia says, WaPo, LIFE, a summary of articles from a local newspaper, is an indirect testimonial, Los Angeles Times, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7J80!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F643b310a-4f76-4de9-8434-c8449f29f686_581x226.png, here, a sun miracle happened at that one too, an account

National Retail Survey1 mentions across 1 issues

National Retail Survey is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between February 19, 2026 and February 19, 2026. The archive places it in contexts such as "Our best bet is the National Retail Survey, from a retail organization which asks stores what percent of their inventory th". It most often appears alongside Belfry Butcher, Black Lives Matter, Britain.

Reference entry: National Retail Survey
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: February 19, 2026
Last seen: February 19, 2026

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Crime As Proxy For Disorder February 19, 2026

Belfry Butcher 1 shared issues
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Britain 1 shared issues
COVID 1 shared issues
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Crime As Proxy For Disorder

February 19, 2026 · Original source

At least in these data, it’s - if anything - less. Okay, so could stores be failing to report to police? Some stores say they’re doing this, and there was an embarrassing incident - it might be the 2021 spike on the graph above - where two stores briefly changed their reporting policy and nearly doubled the total report number. We need an equivalent of the NCVS - reports coming from the victims themselves. Our best bet is the National Retail Survey, from a retail organization which asks stores what percent of their inventory they believe they lose to various causes, including shoplifting. Only about a 20% increase during the 2004 - 2022 period. The NRS is sponsored by a retail trade industry group which really wants to find shoplifting so they can lobby for better anti-shoplifting measures. In 2024 they were so embarrassed by their failure to do so that they stopped the survey entirely and sold the survey brand to an anti-shoplifting security tech company (no bias there!). The company replaced it with a survey of vibes among store owners, and dutifully reported that the vibes about shoplifting had never been worse and you needed to buy their product right away. Now what? The survey doesn’t disaggregate by city, so maybe national shoplifting is stable, but San Francisco really is worse, and just isn’t reporting it to the police? Might this be because there are fewer stores (everyone is buying through Amazon) and therefore even if all existing stores are crammed with shoplifters all the time, it shows up as less shoplifting? This isn’t trivially true - the number of stores has declined less than I would expect, maybe not at all - but there’s been a shift in types of stores (from big box to local). If these types have different shoplifting or reporting patterns, that might matter. Otherwise, we’re in the awkward position where everyone (including stores) reports higher shoplifting numbers, but two datasets both disagree. Homelessness and Tent Encampments: Here’s a graph of homelessness, courtesy of Claude: I’ve confirmed the post 2009 trend; I haven’t fully double-checked the others but they match my impressions. This looks like a similar pattern to crime, although here the likely explanation for the COVID bump is the pandemic-associated rise in house prices. Good measures of tent encampments over long periods are hard to find. San Francisco has this one: …but it starts in 2019, peaks during the pandemic, and then declines. This can’t really show whether 2019 was already higher than some previous year. Here is an interesting graph of Seattle homeless sweeps, ie number of times the police acted against encampments: …but it doesn’t tell us whether encampments are increasing, or the police are taking them more seriously. It does rule out a story where encampments are increasing because the police are no longer taking action - aside from the pandemic, police are taking more action than ever, at least as measured here. People With Loud Boom Boxes In Public Places: All I have to say about this one is that it’s terrible and I hate it. Overall, it’s surprisingly hard to find data confirming that disorder has increased: Littering seems to be down

Inline links: https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TR_v!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F873506d8-b99a-43fa-845b-ab02527c7ece_818x444.png, stopped the survey entirely and sold the survey brand to an anti-shoplifting security tech company, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t2K8!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F05ae2100-6afc-44b2-b334-15132ac3cb29_906x887.png, the pandemic-associated rise in house prices, has, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IP1D!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3dcf3fdb-3af0-4c26-b2c9-0525d4ab4800_807x615.png, Here, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tv-7!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3458f2f2-becc-4a5b-bb89-3644d599d9d2_960x540.png

National Road1 mentions across 1 issues

National Road is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between May 21, 2021 and May 21, 2021. The archive places it in contexts such as "America’s first National Road, 130 miles of buried logs that linked two rivers". It most often appears alongside 1992 treaty, ACX, Africa.

Reference entry: National Road
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: May 21, 2021
Last seen: May 21, 2021

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Your Book Review: The Accidental Superpower May 21, 2021

1992 treaty 1 shared issues
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Your Book Review: The Accidental Superpower

May 21, 2021 · Original source

We didn’t just get tremendous economic growth though – we got “magical” results, but they were based on a one-time confluence of factors that “overwhelmed the normal rule that lots of twenty-and thirty-somethings make for an expensive-capital environment.” What were these one-time accelerants? He identifies the peace dividend – cuts in military spending that allowed capital to be put to more productive uses – as one such change, along with the emergent dominance of the US dollar, particularly boosted by Russian demand thanks to the collapse of their currency, and a later boost in demand thanks to the East Asian financial crisis. With the Europeans’ decision to eliminate national currencies (agreed upon in a 1992 treaty, with the Euro to be introduced in 1999), they became relatively unattractive, and the Euro itself (an “unprecedented experiment in pan-government planning”) was too risky. Many holders of European currencies switched to the US dollar, such that between 1994 and 2002 (“when the euro finally got some traction and the surge dialed back”) there was a $2 trillion increase in the money supply. Zeihan also points to a collapse in commodities prices influenced by the elimination of Russian demand, but continued Russian production of oil and other commodities, followed by a collapse in demand thanks to the East Asian financial crisis. This story of capital coming to the West (“allowing consumption-driven growth not simply to soar, but to explode”) is one of chance world events. However, the story of capital coming from the Boomer cohort is one of demographics. By the 2000s, they’re the mature workers of Zeihan’s four stages described above – and as the bulge in the demographic pyramid, they started flooding the world with capital. Accordingly, “The cost of credit plummeted to levels never before experienced.” Zeihan suggests that developed-world demographics are the cause of booms in places that haven’t been well-developed, from Southern Europe to Brazil, Russia, and India. But he says it’s quickly coming to an end; Boomer savings into stocks and bonds will be moving to low-risk instruments and then turning into withdrawals rather than savings, and the cohort behind them is too small to replace all of that capital. And it’s a worldwide phenomenon: In every single developed country there is currently an American-style population inversion between the about-to-retire and the about-to-be-mature-workers age groups. Japan’s Boomers bulge is a decade older than the American equivalent, while Spain’s is roughly fifteen years younger. Everyone else falls somewhere in between. It dictates a period of chronically low growth and high credit costs, just not on precisely the same time frame. The undeveloped world is that way because it can’t self-fund, so without foreign capital, their growth will come to an end. In sum, the 1990-2005 period of high growth and easy capital was a historical anomaly; “the post-Cold War financial flight was a once-in-a-generation event” and the demographic bulge that coincided with it won’t come around again for decades, if ever. 4 2: America’s incredible advantages As noted above, Zeihan really likes America’s position in the world. He likes its demographics (relative to other developed countries) and loves its geography. Taking the population question first, in America, “the demographic inversion is only a temporary development.” America is younger than the rest of the developed world, as it urbanized later and its enormous size made having kids easier despite that urbanization (i.e., the suburbs exist). This makes the demographic crunch a single-generation issue, as the Millennials are a huge cohort. And even if they weren’t, America assimilates immigrants more easily than other places – Zeihan attributes this to it being a “settler society” – which can help with demographic problems. The rest of the developed world doesn’t have similar cohorts following their massive Boomer and Gen-X analogues. Accordingly: While the American financial world will be past its period of maximum stress by 2030, for the rest of the world 2030 will simply be another year of an ever-deepening imbalance between retirees and taxpayers, with smaller and smaller generations coming up the ranks generating less and less growth. For the developed world beyond the United States—and even large portions of the developing world—chronic capital poverty and permanent recession will be the new normal from which there is no return. Together with America’s Millennial-led growth and abundant energy (there’s a chapter explaining how shale is a done deal that, as of the mid-2014 writing, already made America the world’s largest energy producer 5), by 2030 Zeihan sees it as practically the only country with an economy worth noting. Anyone who is familiar with American geography should see the argument that’s coming about that aspect of Zeihan’s model. Isn’t the Mississippi River a pretty big deal? And those oceans on the east and west coasts seem like nice borders. Indeed, while he gives us many reasons why there was always going to be an American superpower, geography is central to his story. He has lots to say about America’s internal river systems, farmland, and other geographic features. What mountain barriers exist are apparently better than in other countries in terms of allowing internal transport; the Rockies have major passes, several of which have large cities within them, and the easiest pass in the Appalachians featured America’s first National Road, 130 miles of buried logs that linked two rivers, and thus the east coast with the best farmland in the world. As we saw with his exposition on the Nile, Zeihan puts a lot of emphasis on the value of river systems. He argues that America’s waterway network alone should be sufficient for “global dominance.” The numbers he provides in support of this point are impressive. For example, “the Mississippi is only one of twelve major navigable American rivers. Collectively, all of America’s temperate-zone rivers are 14,650 miles long. China and Germany each have about 2,000 miles, France about 1,000. The entirety of the Arab world has but 120.” He praises US barrier islands that mitigate oceanic destruction and effectively create another river system, as well as the fact that the river system is an actual network. All of this gives America more internal waterways than the rest of the world combined. Thus, we get cheap transportation for “Nebraska corn or Tennessee whiskey or Texas oil or New Jersey steel or Georgia peaches or Michigan cars,” enabling savings that “can be used for whatever Americans (or their government) want, from iPhones to aircraft carrier battle groups.” America doesn’t have to spend on artificial infrastructure, like German roads and rails, but when it does, the competition from the rivers keeps transport costs low. Cheap internal transportation has other benefits. “It’s a recipe for small government and high levels of entrepreneurship,” as small government keeps taxes low, leaving people with plenty of capital. Some people may think of the American consumer with disdain, but it isn’t a new phenomenon. Zeihan points out that America has been the world’s largest consumer market “since shortly after the Civil War.” His observation about a robust food supply forming the base of any civilization bodes well for America, which apparently has the largest connected stretch of quality farmland in the world (the Midwest), the value of which is exponentially increased by the fact that it overlaps with so many of these amazing river systems. It isn’t just the Midwest that he gushes over. California’s Central Valley and the Sacramento River, and Washington and Oregon’s farmland with the Columbia and Snake Rivers get praise. The only major farmland more than 150 miles from a navigable waterway is some of the Great Plains near the Rockies. ***** Zeihan provides a reminder that national security is actually a thing, and that at its most basic level, it’s about protection against invasions. It was something of a shock reading about America’s land borders in that context. “As Santa Anna discovered during the Texas Independence War, there is no good staging location in (contemporary) Mexican territory that could strike at American lands.” And, “Canada’s border with the United States is much longer, more varied, and even more successful at keeping the two countries separated,” thanks to mountains and thick forests over much of it. The mid-continent lands are much more connected, but Zeihan frames these Canadian areas as basically American; they’re physically separated from Canada’s core eastern provinces, so trade with them is weaker than with the closer American states. Then there are the oceans. As much as Zeihan loves deserts for protection, he loves oceans more (particularly in a post-World War II world; more on that below). We get a story about the War of 1812 nearly splitting America into three when the British attacked Baltimore. America learned about “strategic vulnerability and sea approaches,” as the attack “on Baltimore—indeed, the entire war effort—would have been impossible without launching grounds in Canada and the Caribbean.” American foreign policy since then can be understood with respect to this lesson. Zeihan cites it as inspiration for America’s steps to make its ocean borders truly impenetrable, such as working to sever Canada from Britain, and the imperial-era acquisitions of Alaska, Hawaii, Midway, Puerto Rico, and de facto control of Cuba (preventing enemies from cutting off Mississippi River-based trade from the rest of the world). There’s more to Zeihan’s being awestruck by America than his analysis of its balance of transport advantages. He argues that America has been the world leader for agriculture, technology, finance, and industry since the Civil War, and runs through a litany of reasons for its preeminence: America is like a continent-sized island (because of its effective land borders), which is always going to be a more natural naval power than a more landlocked country.

Inline links: 4, 5

National Sorry Day1 mentions across 1 issues

National Sorry Day is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between June 01, 2023 and June 01, 2023. The archive places it in contexts such as "Australia has a National Sorry Day where they focus on various atrocities". It most often appears alongside 2006 IAU vote, 9/11, Abacha.

Reference entry: National Sorry Day
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: June 01, 2023
Last seen: June 01, 2023

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Issue trail

Links For May 2023 June 01, 2023

2006 IAU vote 1 shared issues
11 1 shared issues
Abacha 1 shared issues
Africa 1 shared issues
AISafetyMemes 1 shared issues

Source context

Links For May 2023

June 01, 2023 · Original source

25: Australia has a National Sorry Day where they focus on various atrocities perpetrated against the indigenous population. I think this makes more sense than the American solution of having it be a mildly awkward undercurrent across all the other more celebratory holidays (eg July 4, Thanksgiving, Columbus Day).

Inline links: National Sorry Day, Columbus Day

Navigating Racism: Addressing The Pervasive Role Of Racial Bias In Mental Health1 mentions across 1 issues

Navigating Racism: Addressing The Pervasive Role Of Racial Bias In Mental Health is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between July 20, 2022 and July 20, 2022. The archive places it in contexts such as "Navigating Racism: Addressing The Pervasive Role Of Racial Bias In Mental Health". It most often appears alongside #MeToo Movement, American Psychiatric Association, Anand Giridharadas.

Reference entry: Navigating Racism: Addressing The Pervasive Role Of Racial Bias In Mental Health
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: July 20, 2022
Last seen: July 20, 2022

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Issue trail

Criticism Of Criticism Of Criticism July 20, 2022

#MeToo Movement 1 shared issues
American Psychiatric Association 1 shared issues
Anand Giridharadas 1 shared issues
Anti-Politics Machine 1 shared issues
But I'm Not Racist: Racism, Implicit Bias, And The Practice Of Psychiatry 1 shared issues

Source context

Criticism Of Criticism Of Criticism

July 20, 2022 · Original source

Navigating Racism: Addressing The Pervasive Role Of Racial Bias In Mental Health

NBA championship1 mentions across 1 issues

NBA championship is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between March 15, 2021 and March 15, 2021. The archive places it in contexts such as "Lakers win the NBA championship". It most often appears alongside Apple, Apple silicon, Biden.

Reference entry: NBA championship
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: March 15, 2021
Last seen: March 15, 2021

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Mantic Monday: Mantic Matt Y March 15, 2021

Apple 1 shared issues
Apple silicon 1 shared issues
Biden 1 shared issues
Biden administration 1 shared issues
Byrne Hobart 1 shared issues

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Mantic Monday: Mantic Matt Y

March 15, 2021 · Original source

1. Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock win the Georgia Senate races 2. The same party wins both Senate races in Georgia 3. Joe Biden ends the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating 4. Joe Biden ends the year with his approval rating above 50% 5. US GDP growth in 2021 is the fastest of any year of the 21st century 6. The year-end unemployment rate is below 5 percent 7. The year-end unemployment rate is above 4 percent 8. Lakers win the NBA championship 9. Joe Biden ends the year as president 10. Nancy Pelosi sets a definitive retirement schedule 11. A vacancy arises on the Supreme Court 12. The EU ends the year with more confirmed Covid-19 deaths than the US 13. Substack will still be around 14. People will still be writing takes asking if Substack is really sustainable 15. Apple releases new iMacs powered by Apple silicon 16. Apple does not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon 17. Monthly year-on-year core CPI growth does not go above 2 percent 18. Monthly year-on-year core CPI growth does not go above 3 percent 19. Lloyd Austin not confirmed as Defense Secretary 20. No federal tax increases are enacted 21. Biden administration unilaterally relieves some but not all student debt 22. United States rejoins JCPOA and Iran resumes compliance 23. Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations 24. US and China reach agreement to lift Trump-era tariffs 25. Slow Boring will exceed 10,000 paid members

1. Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock win the Georgia Senate races (60%) 2. The same party wins both Senate races in Georgia (95%) 3. Joe Biden ends the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating (70%) [83%] 4. Joe Biden ends the year with his approval rating above 50% (60%) [60%] 5. US GDP growth in 2021 is the fastest of any year of the 21st century (80%) [84%] 6. The year-end unemployment rate is below 5 percent (80%) 7. The year-end unemployment rate is above 4 percent (80%) 8. Lakers win the NBA championship (25%) [25%] 9. Joe Biden ends the year as president (95%) [96%] 10. Nancy Pelosi sets a definitive retirement schedule (60%) 11. A vacancy arises on the Supreme Court (70%) [50%] 12. The EU ends the year with more confirmed Covid-19 deaths than the US (60%) [80%] 13. Substack will still be around (95%) 14. People will still be writing takes asking if Substack is really sustainable (80%) 15. Apple releases new iMacs powered by Apple silicon (90%) [84%] 16. Apple does not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon (70%) [53%] 17. Monthly year-on-year core CPI growth does not go above 2 percent (70%) 18. Monthly year-on-year core CPI growth does not go above 3 percent (90%) 19. Lloyd Austin not confirmed as Defense Secretary (60%) 20. No federal tax increases are enacted (95%) 21. Biden administration unilaterally relieves some but not all student debt (80%) 22. United States rejoins JCPOA and Iran resumes compliance (80%) 23. Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations (70%) [38%] 24. US and China reach agreement to lift Trump-era tariffs (70%) 25. Slow Boring will exceed 10,000 paid members (70%) [75%]

NCT001745251 mentions across 1 issues

NCT00174525 is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between August 14, 2025 and August 14, 2025. The archive places it in contexts such as "[128] 'ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00174525, Safety Study of Passive Immunization for Patients With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer’s Disease.'". It most often appears alongside A. Bejanin, A. de Calignon, A. Elobeid.

Reference entry: NCT00174525
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: August 14, 2025
Last seen: August 14, 2025

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In Defense Of The Amyloid Hypothesis August 14, 2025

A. Bejanin 1 shared issues
A. de Calignon 1 shared issues
A. Elobeid 1 shared issues
A. J. Aschenbrenner 1 shared issues
A. L. Woerman 1 shared issues

Source context

In Defense Of The Amyloid Hypothesis

August 14, 2025 · Original source

[128] ClinicalTrials.gov, “Safety Study of Passive Immunization for Patients With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer’s Disease.” ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00174525, May 09, 2012. Accessed: Jul. 23, 2025. [Online]. Available: https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT00174525

Inline links: https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT00174525

Netflix Prize1 mentions across 1 issues

Netflix Prize is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between February 23, 2022 and February 23, 2022. The archive places it in contexts such as "the sorts of Big Data methods that won the Netflix Prize". It most often appears alongside AGI, AI Impacts, AIXI.

Reference entry: Netflix Prize
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: February 23, 2022
Last seen: February 23, 2022

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Biological Anchors: A Trick That Might Or Might Not Work February 23, 2022

AGI 1 shared issues
AI Impacts 1 shared issues
AIXI 1 shared issues
Ajeya 1 shared issues
Ajeya Cotra 1 shared issues

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Biological Anchors: A Trick That Might Or Might Not Work

February 23, 2022 · Original source

Play pro-level Go using 8-16 times as much computing power as AlphaGo, but only 2006 levels of technology. For reference, recall that in 2006, Hinton and Salakhutdinov were just starting to publish that, by training multiple layers of Restricted Boltzmann machines and then unrolling them into a "deep" neural network, you could get an initialization for the network weights that would avoid the problem of vanishing and exploding gradients and activations. At least so long as you didn't try to stack too many layers, like a dozen layers or something ridiculous like that. This being the point that kicked off the entire deep-learning revolution. Your model apparently suggests that we have gotten around 50 times more efficient at turning computation into intelligence since that time; so, we should be able to replicate any modern feat of deep learning performed in 2021, using techniques from before deep learning and around fifty times as much computing power. OpenPhil: No, that's totally not what our viewpoint says when you backfit it to past reality. Our model does a great job of retrodicting past reality. Eliezer: How so? OpenPhil: <Eliezer cannot predict what they will say here.> I think the argument here is that OpenPhil is accounting for normal scientific progress in algorithms, but not for paradigm shifts. Directional Error These are the two arguments Eliezer makes against OpenPhil that I find most persuasive. First, that you shouldn’t be using biological anchors at all. Second, that unpredictable paradigm shifts are more realistic than gradual algorithmic progress. These mostly add uncertainty to OpenPhil’s model, but Eliezer ends his essay making a stronger argument: he thinks OpenPhil is directionally wrong, and AI will come earlier than they think. Mostly this is the paradigm argument again. Five years from now, there could be a paradigm shift that makes AI much easier to build. It’s happened before; from GOFAI’s pre-programmed logical rules to Deep Blue’s tree searches to the sorts of Big Data methods that won the Netflix Prize to modern deep learning. Instead of just extrapolating deep learning scaling thirty years out, OpenPhil should be worried about the next big idea. Hypothetical OpenPhil retorts that this is a double-edged sword. Maybe the deep learning paradigm can’t produce AGI, and we’ll have to wait decades or centuries for someone to have the right insight. Or maybe the new paradigm you need for AGI will take more compute than deep learning, in the same way deep learning takes more compute than whatever Moravec was imagining. This is a pretty strong response, since it would have been true for every previous forecaster: remember, Moravec erred in thinking AI would come too soon, not too late. So although Eliezer is taking the cheap shot of saying OpenPhil’s estimate will be wrong just as everyone else’s was wrong before, he’s also giving himself the much harder case of arguing it might be wrong in the opposite direction as all its predecessors. Eliezer takes this objection seriously, but feels like on balance probably new paradigms will speed up AI rather than slow it down. Here he grudgingly and with suitable embarrassment does try to make an object-level semi-biological-anchors-related argument: Moravec was wrong because he ignored the training phase. And the proper anchor for the training phase is somewhere between evolution and a human childhood, where evolution represents “blind chance eventually finding good things” and human childhood represents “an intelligent cognitive engine trying to squeeze as much data out of experience as possible”. And part of what he expects paradigm shifts to do is to move from more evolutionary processes to more childhood-like processes, and that’s a net gain in efficiency. So he still thinks OpenPhil’s methods are more likely to overestimate the amount of time until AGI rather than underestimate it. What Moore’s Law Giveth, Platt’s Law Taketh Away Eliezer’s other argument is kind of a low blow: he refers to Platt’s Law Of AI Forecasting: “any AI forecast will put strong AI thirty years out from when the forecast is made.” This isn’t exact. Hans Moravec, writing in 1988, said 2010 - so 22 years. Ray Kurzweil, writing in 2001, said 2023 - another 22 years. Vernor Vinge, in a 1993 speech, said 2023, and that was exactly 30 years, but Vinge knew about Platt’s Law and might have been joking. The point is: OpenPhil wrote a report in 2020 that predicted strong AI in 2052, isn’t that kind of suspicious? I’d previously mentioned it as a plus that Ajeya got around the same year everyone else got. The forecasters on Metaculus. The experts surveyed in Grace et al. Lots of other smart experts with clever models. But what if all of these experts and models and analyses are just fudging the numbers for the same Platt’s-Law-related reasons? Hypothetical OpenPhil is BTFO: OpenPhil: That part about Charles Platt's generalization is interesting, but just because we unwittingly chose literally exactly the median that Platt predicted people would always choose in consistent error, that doesn't justify dismissing our work, right? We could have used a completely valid method of estimation which would have pointed to 2050 no matter which year it was tried in, and, by sheer coincidence, have first written that up in 2020. In fact, we try to show in the report that the same methodology, evaluated in earlier years, would also have pointed to around 2050 - Eliezer: Look, people keep trying this. It's never worked. It's never going to work. 2 years before the end of the world, there'll be another published biologically inspired estimate showing that AGI is 30 years away and it will be exactly as informative then as it is now. I'd love to know the timelines too, but you're not going to get the answer you want until right before the end of the world, and maybe not even then unless you're paying very close attention. Timing this stuff is just plain hard. Part III: Responses And Commentary Response 1: Less Wrong Comments Less Wrong is a site founded by Eliezer Yudkowsky for Eliezer Yudkowsky fans who wanted to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky’s ideas. So, for whatever it’s worth - the comments on his essay were pretty negative. Carl Shulman, an independent researcher with links to both OpenPhil and MIRI (Eliezer’s org), writes the top-voted comment. He works from a model where there is hardware progress, software progress downstream of hardware progress, and independent (ie unrelated to algorithms) software progress, and where the first two make up most progress on the margin. Researchers generally develop new paradigms once they have enough compute available to tinker with them. Progress in AI has largely been a function of increasing compute, human software research efforts, and serial time/steps. Throwing more compute at researchers has improved performance both directly and indirectly (e.g. by enabling more experiments, refining evaluation functions in chess, training neural networks, or making algorithms that work best with large compute more attractive). Historically compute has grown by many orders of magnitude, while human labor applied to AI and supporting software by only a few. And on plausible decompositions of progress (allowing for adjustment of software to current hardware and vice versa), hardware growth accounts for more of the progress over time than human labor input growth. So if you're going to use an AI production function for tech forecasting based on inputs (which do relatively OK by the standards tech forecasting), it's best to use all of compute, labor, and time, but it makes sense for compute to have pride of place and take in more modeling effort and attention, since it's the biggest source of change (particularly when including software gains downstream of hardware technology and expenditures). […] A perfectly correlated time series of compute and labor would not let us say which had the larger marginal contribution, but we have resources to get at that, which I was referring to with 'plausible decompositions.' This includes experiments with old and new software and hardware, like the chess ones Paul recently commissioned, and studies by AI Impacts, OpenAI, and Neil Thompson. There are AI scaling experiments, and observations of the results of shocks like the end of Dennard scaling, the availability of GPGPU computing, and Besiroglu's data on the relative predictive power of computer and labor in individual papers and subfields. In different ways those tend to put hardware as driving more log improvement than software (with both contributing), particularly if we consider software innovations downstream of hardware changes. Vanessa Kosoy makes the obvious objection, which echoes a comment of Eliezer’s in the dialogue above: I'm confused how can this pass some obvious tests. For example, do you claim that alpha-beta pruning can match AlphaGo given some not-crazy advantage in compute? Do you claim that SVMs can do SOTA image classification with not-crazy advantage in compute (or with any amount of compute with the same training data)? Can Eliza-style chatbots compete with GPT3 however we scale them up? Mark Xu answers: My model is something like: For any given algorithm, e.g. SVMs, AlphaGo, alpha-beta pruning, convnets, etc., there is an "effective compute regime" where dumping more compute makes them better. If you go above this regime, you get steep diminishing marginal returns.

Inline links: normal scientific progress in algorithms, but not for paradigm shifts, Platt’s Law Of AI Forecasting, the comments, Paul recently commissioned, AI Impacts, OpenAI, Neil Thompson, Besiroglu's, Vanessa Kosoy, Mark Xu

Netherlands 'Best Employer'1 mentions across 1 issues

Netherlands 'Best Employer' is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between May 28, 2021 and May 28, 2021. The archive places it in contexts such as "they've won the Netherlands 'Best Employer' 5 times". It most often appears alongside A Game of Thrones, Africa, African Americans.

Reference entry: Netherlands 'Best Employer'
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: May 28, 2021
Last seen: May 28, 2021

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Your Book Review: Humankind May 28, 2021

A Game of Thrones 1 shared issues
Africa 1 shared issues
African Americans 1 shared issues
Against Empathy 1 shared issues
American 1 shared issues

Source context

Your Book Review: Humankind

May 28, 2021 · Original source

Jos de Blok is an iconoclast. He's a nurse who set up a Dutch nursing company which now employs 10,000 nurses. It has no targets, no bonuses, no call centres, no managers. Instead the nurses are organised into teams of 12 which are given maximum autonomy. With this formula they've won the Netherlands 'Best Employer' 5 times despite having no HR team, and won an award for 'Best Marketing in the Care Sector' despite having no marketing department. Their care is slightly cheaper than average, and drastically better. We should be aware that the reason Jos de Blok can slice literally all the middle management out of his nursing company and end up only slightly cheaper is that he pays his nurses a lot more. So maybe don't give up on pay as a lever entirely.

NeurIPS1 mentions across 1 issues

NeurIPS is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between September 18, 2024 and September 18, 2024. The archive places it in contexts such as "NeurIPS computer science conference". It most often appears alongside AIDER, Ajeya Cotra, Alan Turing.

Reference entry: NeurIPS
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: September 18, 2024
Last seen: September 18, 2024

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Sakana, Strawberry, and Scary AI September 18, 2024

AIDER 1 shared issues
Ajeya Cotra 1 shared issues
Alan Turing 1 shared issues
AlphaFold 1 shared issues
AlphaGeometry 1 shared issues

Source context

Sakana, Strawberry, and Scary AI

September 18, 2024 · Original source

The creators - a Japanese startup with academic collaborators - try to defend their singing dog. They say its AI papers meet the bar to get accepted at the highly-regarded NeurIPS computer science conference. But in fact, the only judge was another AI, supposedly trained to review papers. The AI reviewer did do a surprisingly good job matching human reviewers’ judgments - but the creators admit that the human reviewers’ judgments might have been in the training data. In any case, if I’m understanding right, the AI reviewer only accepted one out of eighty papers by the AI scientist (and it’s not any of the ~dozen they’ve released publicly, which is suspicious).

New Deal1 mentions across 1 issues

New Deal is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between August 12, 2025 and August 12, 2025. The archive places it in contexts such as "strong trend through the Great Depression, the New Deal, and the Postwar years". It most often appears alongside All Who Go Not Return, Amica Terra, Amish.

Reference entry: New Deal
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: August 12, 2025
Last seen: August 12, 2025

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Highlights From The Comments On Liberalism And Communities August 12, 2025

All Who Go Not Return 1 shared issues
Amica Terra 1 shared issues
Amish 1 shared issues
Amish 1 shared issues
Ariel 1 shared issues

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Highlights From The Comments On Liberalism And Communities

August 12, 2025 · Original source

We ended the Gilded Age fractured and alone, and built up civic associational life, communitarian ideals, etc. from around 1900 to around 1960, after which all those indicators start plunging in all the charts you see everywhere today. But because we have been so focused on the last 60-odd years of data, we have missed the incredibly important context of the (titular) upswing that occurred in the first half of the 20th century in America and didn't require populism (in fact, the Populist movement in America was strongest right BEFORE the upswing began, ~1870-1900), and it was the Progressives that kicked off associational, communitarian ideals. This increase in community and togetherness was a strong trend through the Great Depression, the New Deal, and the Postwar years. It wasn't costless! There were reasons people rebelled against the reigning order in the 1960s and 1970s. But every solution creates its own problems, and I think making this about Modernity and not about the last 65 years of culture obscures the contours of the issue.

New Hampshire primary1 mentions across 1 issues

New Hampshire primary is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between July 08, 2022 and July 08, 2022. The archive places it in contexts such as "winning the ... New Hampshire primary". It most often appears alongside 1968 convention, 1976 Democratic, 1976 Democratic primary.

Reference entry: New Hampshire primary
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: July 08, 2022
Last seen: July 08, 2022

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Your Book Review: The Outlier July 08, 2022

1968 convention 1 shared issues
1976 Democratic 1 shared issues
1976 Democratic primary 1 shared issues
1976 primary 1 shared issues
1979 oil crisis 1 shared issues

Source context

Your Book Review: The Outlier

July 08, 2022 · Original source

When he first enters the 1976 Democratic primary, Carter is a complete unknown, and the general consensus is that he’s the longest of long shots. (“Jimmy who?” one opponent asks.) But two things go very, very right for him. First, he’s one of the few people who fully understands the changes to the Democratic primary process that were implemented after the chaos of the 1968 convention [1]. He stakes his campaign on the now-familiar strategy of winning the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, which is groundbreaking at the time. More importantly, the fact that no one has ever heard of him turns out to be a huge advantage in the wake of Watergate, when voters are hungry for an outsider.

New Innovator Award1 mentions across 1 issues

New Innovator Award is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between February 07, 2025 and February 07, 2025. The archive places it in contexts such as "including the New Innovator Award". It most often appears alongside 1DaySooner, ACX, Alex Tabarrok.

Reference entry: New Innovator Award
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: February 07, 2025
Last seen: February 07, 2025

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1DaySooner's Trump II Health Policy Proposals February 07, 2025

1DaySooner 1 shared issues
ACX 1 shared issues
Alex Tabarrok 1 shared issues
Anthony Fauci 1 shared issues
ARPA-H 1 shared issues

Source context

1DaySooner's Trump II Health Policy Proposals

February 07, 2025 · Original source

Increase funding for novel research: Bhattacharya co-authored a paper finding that projects which explore new ideas get less government funding than those confirming existing paradigms. The NIH has already been trying to change this with their High-Risk, High-Reward Research program, including the Transformative Research Award, Pioneer Award, New Innovator Award, and Early Independence Award. These remove many of the barriers to typical R01 grant review – preliminary data, budget approvals, and demonstrations of feasibility – and should be expanded.

Inline links: co-authored a paper, High-Risk, High-Reward Research

New Metaculus tournaments1 mentions across 1 issues

New Metaculus tournaments is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between December 05, 2023 and December 05, 2023. The archive places it in contexts such as "New Metaculus tournaments opening, including respiratory illnesses and the Global Pulse Tournament". It most often appears alongside @AISafetyMemes, @betafuzz, Adam D’Angelo.

Reference entry: New Metaculus tournaments
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: December 05, 2023
Last seen: December 05, 2023

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Issue trail

23 December 05, 2023

@AISafetyMemes 1 shared issues
@betafuzz 1 shared issues
Adam D’Angelo 1 shared issues
Aella 1 shared issues
AGI 1 shared issues

Source context

December 05, 2023 · Original source

3: New Metaculus tournaments opening, including respiratory illnesses and the Global Pulse Tournament (with $1500 in prizes).

Inline links: respiratory illnesses, Global Pulse Tournament

New Year1 mentions across 1 issues

New Year is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between October 10, 2022 and October 10, 2022. The archive places it in contexts such as "Christmas was banned as too religious, and replaced with New Year celebrations". It most often appears alongside 9-11, Adraste, America.

Reference entry: New Year
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: October 10, 2022
Last seen: October 10, 2022

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Highlights From The Comments On Columbus Day October 10, 2022

9-11 1 shared issues
Adraste 1 shared issues
America 1 shared issues
American Jews 1 shared issues
Angels 1 shared issues

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Highlights From The Comments On Columbus Day

October 10, 2022 · Original source

I have had weird feelings reading this. I am from Russia, and this precisely what has happened here (without focus groups though). In soviet era, Christmas was banned as too religious, and replaced with New Year celebrations (in the night from 31st of December to the 1st of January), which are as massive a holiday as Christmas is in the US. For New Year, families come together, decorate a spruce tree (which is called a New Year Tree rather than a Christmas Tree), and give each other presents which are supposedly distributed by Grandfather Frost, who is totally not Santa Claus despite being an old jolly bearded guy giving the presents. (He has evolved from the East Slavic mythology rather Cristianity, so while he was briefly banned, the soviet government was much less strict about that, as, in accordance with the post, they feared Pagan opposition much less than Christian opposition). And Christmas in Russia is mostly celebrated by people who are indeed religious.

And yes, in Russia we are kind of without tradition with regard to national holidays, because all the main ones are at most soviet-era old. The most popular are The New Year, The International Women's Day and the Day of Protectors of the Fatherland (Progressives in Russia have been to change the nature of both of them for years: to make the Women's Day more about feminism and awareness of Women's rights, rather than flowers, beauty and "We wish you to smile more and to be a decoration of your work team"; and to demilitarise the discourse around the Protector's day and just turn it into Man's Day, like it works in school, where girls give boys gifts for Protector's Day, and boys give girls gift for Women's Day), and the Labour Day and Victory Day (the has also been attempted to get demilitarised for years, to be turned from belligerent weapons demonstrations into a day of grief for those who have died in WWII, of whom there are a few in practically every Russian family history). So yeah, we live in a country with a short tradition of holidays, and there are lots of clashes around them.

Also, I have just read on Wikipedia that in Ukraine there is a movement to change the focus from New Year to Christmas again, because New Year is associated with the Soviet past. I don't have any personal evidence on whether this is true, however.

New York Times Co. v. United States1 mentions across 1 issues

New York Times Co. v. United States is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between June 24, 2022 and June 24, 2022. The archive places it in contexts such as "Supreme Court ruling in New York Times Co. v. United States". It most often appears alongside 501(c)(3), 80,000 Hours, 9/11.

Reference entry: New York Times Co. v. United States
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: June 24, 2022
Last seen: June 24, 2022

Outbound links

Issue trail

Your Book Review: Public Choice Theory And The Illusion Of Grand Strategy June 24, 2022

501(c)(3) 1 shared issues
80,000 Hours 1 shared issues
11 1 shared issues
Adam Tooze 1 shared issues
Afghan ambassador to Pakistan 1 shared issues

Source context

Your Book Review: Public Choice Theory And The Illusion Of Grand Strategy

June 24, 2022 · Original source

Reinforcing the Supreme Court ruling in New York Times Co. v. United States by prosecuting any individual who publicises classified material, including top military officials and journalists who routinely leak classified material but are never prosecuted (unlike whistleblowers like Edward Snowden)

New York’s RAISE Act1 mentions across 1 issues

New York’s RAISE Act is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between November 26, 2025 and November 26, 2025. The archive places it in contexts such as "The two most discussed AI safety bills of the past year - ... New York’s RAISE Act". It most often appears alongside 9/11, AI ethics, AI Safety.

Reference entry: New York’s RAISE Act
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: November 26, 2025
Last seen: November 26, 2025

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Issue trail

Why AI Safety Won't Make America Lose The Race With China November 26, 2025

11 1 shared issues
AI ethics 1 shared issues
AI Safety 1 shared issues
America 1 shared issues
American AI 1 shared issues

Source context

Why AI Safety Won't Make America Lose The Race With China

November 26, 2025 · Original source

...AI Safety Policy It’s worth being specific about what we mean by “AI safety regulation”. The two most discussed AI safety bills of the past year - California’s SB53 and New York’s RAISE Act - as well as Dean Ball’s proposed federal AI safety preemption bill - all focus on a few key topics: - The biggest companies (eg OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) must disclose...

Next Billion Fellowship1 mentions across 1 issues

Next Billion Fellowship is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between October 09, 2023 and October 09, 2023. The archive places it in contexts such as "He was selected as a “Next Billion Fellow” by the Ethereum Foundation". It most often appears alongside Academic Decathlon, ACX Grants, ACX/rat/EA community.

Reference entry: Next Billion Fellowship
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: October 09, 2023
Last seen: October 09, 2023

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Issue trail

Impact Market Mini-Grants Results October 09, 2023

Academic Decathlon 1 shared issues
ACX Grants 1 shared issues
EA community 1 shared issues
Astralcodexten 1 shared issues
Auroville 1 shared issues

Source context

Impact Market Mini-Grants Results

October 09, 2023 · Original source

Many people like Devansh’s idea. He was selected as a “Next Billion Fellow” by the Ethereum Foundation and has received previous grants from Gitcoin Grants and the Plurality Institute. He has clearly put a lot of work into this. He has some great videos and explainers talking about what he’s doing:

Next Generation Learning Challenges1 mentions across 1 issues

Next Generation Learning Challenges is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between July 04, 2025 and July 04, 2025. The archive places it in contexts such as "Gates Foundation’s 'Next Generation Learning Challenges,' promoting software-driven schools". It most often appears alongside Astralcodexten Com, B.F. Skinner, Bill Gates.

Reference entry: Next Generation Learning Challenges
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: July 04, 2025
Last seen: July 04, 2025

Outbound links

Issue trail

Your Review: School July 04, 2025

Astralcodexten Com 1 shared issues
B.F. Skinner 1 shared issues
Bill Gates 1 shared issues
David Labaree 1 shared issues
G.K. Chesterton 1 shared issues

Source context

Your Review: School

July 04, 2025 · Original source

Bill Gates has funded efforts like the Gates Foundation’s "Next Generation Learning Challenges," promoting software-driven schools where algorithms tailor lessons to each student. Mark Zuckerberg donated $100 million to Newark Public Schools in 2010, largely earmarked for "personalized learning" tech. Zuckerberg echoed a common critique of traditional education, saying that it’s absurd to teach all students "the same material at the same pace in the same way.” These arguments resonate with many parents and reformers. It seems obvious: if some children grasp fractions in a week while others need a month, why not let them move at their own pace?

Nigerian study1 mentions across 1 issues

Nigerian study is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between February 01, 2023 and February 01, 2023. The archive places it in contexts such as "OE Babalola did a Nigerian study which found that ivermectin decreased the amount of time it took before people tested negative for COVID". It most often appears alongside 2006 Ioannidis paper, ACTIV-6, Alexandros.

Reference entry: Nigerian study
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: February 01, 2023
Last seen: February 01, 2023

Outbound links

Issue trail

Response To Alexandros Contra Me On Ivermectin February 01, 2023

2006 Ioannidis paper 1 shared issues
ACTIV-6 1 shared issues
Alexandros 1 shared issues
Alexandros Marinos 1 shared issues
American 1 shared issues

Source context

Response To Alexandros Contra Me On Ivermectin

February 01, 2023 · Original source

Alexandros doesn’t dispute that one of Cadegiani’s trial had some impossible-seeming statistics, but says we shouldn’t jump to allegations of fraud, shouldn’t let this unduly influence our opinion of Cadegiani’s other trials, and also accuses Kyle Sheldrick, the person who discovered the discrepancy, of doing other bad things. My responses: Alexandros’ Point 1 is fair-ish. Since this person appears to be commiting pretty substantial fraud and doing some strange things, I thought it was useful to highlight the ways in which he is weird and suspicious, rather than the ways he is prestigious and impressive. But probably I went too far in this. His Point 2/3 is completely fair, and I’m sorry for getting this wrong. I may have unthinkingly copied it from forbetterscience.com, which made this mistake before me, or I might have just failed at reading comprehension on this translated Portugese-language article I linked. In either case, I apologize to Cadegiani. This is already on my Mistakes page as of June 2022 when Alexandros wrote his original article. His Point 4 is correct, although based on information that came out after I wrote my article. All that was available in English when I wrote was that the Brazilian government was considering accusing Cadegiani of crimes against humanity. I think I did an okay job noting that I was guessing at their reasoning (rather than reporting a known fact), and as written I did make clear that I thought he was innocent of the specific charge. Still, I appreciate the clarification. His Point 5 is - I do feel like Alexandros is having a sort of missing mood on the fact that one of Cadegiani’s big pro-ivermectin studies contains impossible data. While this is not proof of fraud or incompetence, it is some Bayesian evidence for both. And while fraud or incompetence in one of your studies supporting ivermectin is not proof that your other studies supporting ivermectin are also fraudulent/incompetent, it is, again, Bayesian evidence. Alexandros makes a big deal of there being four corrections in the BMJ article attacking Cadegiani, as if now the BMJ has admitted they were wrong all along, whereas these were mostly on unrelated details and the BMJ definitely did not correct the quotes about how his study was “an ethical cesspool of violations” or how “in the entire history of the National Health Council, there has never been such disrespect for ethical standards and research participants in the country”1. I feel like if his Science Olympiad medals are an important part of the story, these kinds of things are an important part too. Still, several of Alexandros’ points were entirely correct, and I appreciate the corrections. Babalola et al (still disagree with Alexandros) OE Babalola (I incorrectly wrote this name as “Babaloba” in the original) did a Nigerian study which found that ivermectin decreased the amount of time it took before people tested negative for COVID. I described this study as: This was a Nigerian RCT comparing 21 patients on low-dose ivermectin, 21 patients on high-dose ivermectin, and 20 patients on a combination of lopinavir and ritonavir, a combination antiviral which later studies found not to work for COVID and which might as well be considered a placebo. Primary outcome, as usual, was days until a negative PCR test. High dose ivermectin was 4.65 days, low dose was 6 days, control was 9.15, p = 0.035. Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz, part of the team that detects fraud in ivermectin papers, is not a fan of this one. He doesn’t say there what means, but elsewhere he tweets [this figure highlighting how the study has “Numerous impossible numbers”] I think his point is that if you have 21 people, it’s impossible to have 50% of them have headache, because that would be 10.5. If 10 people have a headache, it would be 47.6%; if 11, 52%. So something is clearly wrong here. Seems like a relatively minor mistake, and Meyerowitz-Katz stops short of calling fraud, but it’s not a good look. I’m going to be slightly uncomfortable with this study without rejecting it entirely, and move on. Alexandros calls this The Sullying Of Babalola Et Al, and says I “followed Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz off a cliff” by unfairly “lambasting” the innocent Babalola. I “[made] a mountain out of a molehill”. Alexandros quotes a commenter who found that the most likely explanation for the “impossible numbers” in Babaloba was missing data, and notes that usually-anti-ivermectin researcher Kyle Sheldrick had evaluated the raw data and found no fraud. Alexandros concludes: As far as I can tell, Scott discarded a good study here, and besmirched the reputation of the researchers by amplifying flimsy allegations that were known to be off-base at the time that the article was written. I don’t think I did anything especially wrong here. There was a chart that didn’t make sense. It turned out not to make sense because some data was missing. I said “[this] seems like a relatively minor mistake, and Meyerowitz-Katz stops short of calling fraud, but it’s not a good look. I’m going to be slightly uncomfortable with this study without rejecting it entirely, and move on.” I was right that it was a minor mistake, I was right that it wasn’t fraud, and I was right not to reject the study. I didn’t have the exact explanation (missing data), so I did not mention it, but I think I made the correct guess about the sort of explanation it was. I don’t understand why Alexandros acts like I said the study wasn’t worth keeping, or that there was no innocent explanation, or that I was accusing the researchers of fraud, when in fact I said the opposite of all those things, pretty explicitly.2 Carvallo et al (Alexandros 25% right) This was an Argentine study. I described it as: This one has all the disadvantages of Espitia-Hernandez, plus it’s completely unreadable. It’s hard to figure out how many patients there were, whether it was an RCT or not, etc. It looks like maybe there were 42 experimentals and 14 controls, and the controls were about 10x more likely to die than the experimentals. Seems pretty bad. On the other hand, another Carvallo paper was retracted because of fraud: apparently the hospital where the study supposedly took place said it never happened there. I can’t tell if this is a different version of that study, a pilot study for that study, or a different study by the same guy. Anyway, it’s too confusing to interpret, shows implausible results, and is by a known fraudster, so I feel okay about ignoring this one. Alexandros responds here. Attempting to summarize his points: He agrees this study is extremely confusing.

Inline links: forbetterscience.com, this translated Portugese-language article, 1, not a fan of this one, this figure, The Sullying Of Babalola Et Al, 2, another Carvallo paper was retracted, here

No On 29: Stop Yet Another Dangerous Dialysis Proposition1 mentions across 1 issues

No On 29: Stop Yet Another Dangerous Dialysis Proposition is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between November 04, 2022 and November 04, 2022. The archive places it in contexts such as "alliance of free races is called No On 29: Stop Yet Another Dangerous Dialysis Proposition". It most often appears alongside ABSTAIN, Alex Padilla, American Nurses Association.

Reference entry: No On 29: Stop Yet Another Dangerous Dialysis Proposition
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: November 04, 2022
Last seen: November 04, 2022

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Issue trail

My California Ballot 2022 November 04, 2022

ABSTAIN 1 shared issues
Alex Padilla 1 shared issues
American Nurses Association 1 shared issues
Angela Jacobs 1 shared issues
Black Chamber of Commerce 1 shared issues

Source context

My California Ballot 2022

November 04, 2022 · Original source

And yet the argument against is that we must never surrender to The Kidney One. As many times as it rises up to menace the Californian people, so many times shall we rally the defenders. This time the alliance of free races is called No On 29: Stop Yet Another Dangerous Dialysis Proposition, and includes the California Medical Association, Renal Physicians Association, American Nurses Association, California Chamber of Commerce, California Taxpayer Protection Committee, the NAACP, and every other group in California, even (really!) the Scottish-American Military Society.

Inline links: No On 29: Stop Yet Another Dangerous Dialysis Proposition, includes

Noah’s Flood1 mentions across 1 issues

Noah’s Flood is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between November 17, 2023 and November 17, 2023. The archive places it in contexts such as "Noah’s Flood". It most often appears alongside Abel, Adam and Eve, America.

Reference entry: Noah’s Flood
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: November 17, 2023
Last seen: November 17, 2023

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Book Review: I See Satan Fall Like Lightning November 17, 2023

Abel 1 shared issues
Adam and Eve 1 shared issues
America 1 shared issues
Apollonius of Tyana 1 shared issues
Arab 1 shared issues

Source context

Book Review: I See Satan Fall Like Lightning

November 17, 2023 · Original source

But Girard lost me with the part about the myths. Most pagan myths have nothing to do with the single-victim process (eg labors of Hercules, Jason and the Golden Fleece, rape of Persephone, the Iliad, the Trojan Horse, the Odyssey, etc, etc, etc). The same with most Bible stories (Adam and Eve, Noah’s Flood, the Tower of Babel, the Ten Plagues, the Ten Commandments, etc). It kind of seems like the sort of thing where Freud can claim all myths are about castration. There are lots of myths, and they’re about lots of things. “Person does bad thing, the gods collectively punish humanity, then once we get rid of him the collective punishment stops” is certainly one trope. But it’s not hard to fathom why a primitive community stricken by a plague might think God was punishing them for some iniquity. And if I haven’t committed iniquity lately, and you haven’t committed iniquity lately, it must be some particular bad guy who needs to be stopped.

NOAI1 mentions across 1 issues

NOAI is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between October 21, 2024 and October 21, 2024. The archive places it in contexts such as "I am also being asked to advertise NOAI , a conference in New Orleans". It most often appears alongside ACX, ACX Meetup, Berkeley.

Reference entry: NOAI
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: October 21, 2024
Last seen: October 21, 2024

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Open Thread 352 October 21, 2024

ACX 1 shared issues
ACX Meetup 1 shared issues
Berkeley 1 shared issues
Book Review Contest 1 shared issues
Brooke 1 shared issues

Source context

Open Thread 352

October 21, 2024 · Original source

5: I am also being asked to advertise NOAI, a conference in New Orleans. It seems to be a joint project of many local philosophical and cultural groups, including the local ACX meetup. There will be AI content, chess boxing, a charitable donation game, and an afterparty at Francis Ford Coppola’s house (I will be disappointed if it’s not made of Megalon). Astral Codex Ten is listed as a sponsor, but I want to clarify that this is the local meetup group only and that I know nothing about it besides what’s listed here. That having been said, I am prepared to endorse it for a sufficient payment in Megalon.

Inline links: NOAI

NOAI 20241 mentions across 1 issues

NOAI 2024 is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between August 29, 2024 and August 29, 2024. The archive places it in contexts such as "ACX Lunch and Learn part of NOAI 2024". It most often appears alongside 10 N Park Pl, 12th Ave South, 1525 Bank St.

Reference entry: NOAI 2024
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: August 29, 2024
Last seen: August 29, 2024

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Issue trail

Meetups Everywhere 2024: Times & Places August 29, 2024

10 N Park Pl 1 shared issues
12th Ave South 1 shared issues
1525 Bank St 1 shared issues
200 Degrees 1 shared issues
3806 Williams Rd, San Jose, CA 95117 1 shared issues

Source context

Meetups Everywhere 2024: Times & Places

August 29, 2024 · Original source

Contact: Blake Bertuccelli-Booth Contact Info: 1111[at]philosophers[dot]group Time: Monday, October 14th, 11:11 AM Location: Petite Clouet Cafe Coordinates: https://plus.codes/76XFXX73+8R Group Link: http://philosophers.group Notes: We're hosting an ACX Lunch and Learn part of NOAI 2024, https://noai.philosophers.group.

Inline links: https://plus.codes/76XFXX73+8R

Nobel Memorial prizes in Economics1 mentions across 1 issues

Nobel Memorial prizes in Economics is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between November 18, 2021 and November 18, 2021. The archive places it in contexts such as "Paul Samuelson who both won Nobel Memorial prizes in Economics". It most often appears alongside 23andme, AB, Abraham Mendelssohn.

Reference entry: Nobel Memorial prizes in Economics
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: November 18, 2021
Last seen: November 18, 2021

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Issue trail

Highlights From The Comments On Great Families November 18, 2021

23andme 1 shared issues
AB 1 shared issues
Abraham Mendelssohn 1 shared issues
Albert Baez 1 shared issues
Aldous Huxley 1 shared issues

Source context

Highlights From The Comments On Great Families

November 18, 2021 · Original source

A good recent example is Larry Summers who is nephew to Kenneth Arrow and Paul Samuelson who both won Nobel Memorial prizes in Economics. Also Janet Yellen's husband just so happens to have one a Nobel Memorial prize in Economics as well.

Nobels in the Street1 mentions across 1 issues

Nobels in the Street is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between October 11, 2024 and October 11, 2024. The archive places it in contexts such as "invites you to join him at Nobels in the Street". It most often appears alongside AmandaFromBethlehem, Amedeo Rothson, analogfutures.substack.com.

Reference entry: Nobels in the Street
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: October 11, 2024
Last seen: October 11, 2024

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Issue trail

Book Review Contest 2024 Winners October 11, 2024

AmandaFromBethlehem 1 shared issues
Amedeo Rothson 1 shared issues
analogfutures.substack.com 1 shared issues
Arielle Friedman 1 shared issues
Arvid Häggqvist 1 shared issues

Source context

Book Review Contest 2024 Winners

October 11, 2024 · Original source

Determined, reviewed by Slippin Fall, who invites you to join him at Nobels in the Street where he will try to win himself, using zero math, a Nobel Prize every Monday for the next six Mondays. First up, on 10/14, the Nobel Prize in Physics. He sh*ts you not, and hopes to see you there.

Inline links: Determined, Nobels in the Street

Nonbook Review Contest1 mentions across 1 issues

Nonbook Review Contest is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between June 23, 2025 and June 23, 2025. The archive places it in contexts such as "Thank you to everyone who voted for finalists in this year’s Nonbook Review Contest". It most often appears alongside ACX Grants, Alpha School, Astralcodexten.

Reference entry: Nonbook Review Contest
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: June 23, 2025
Last seen: June 23, 2025

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Issue trail

Open Thread 387 June 23, 2025

ACX Grants 1 shared issues
Alpha School 1 shared issues
Astralcodexten 1 shared issues
Bishop's Castle 1 shared issues
Bukele 1 shared issues

Source context

Open Thread 387

June 23, 2025 · Original source

3: Thank you to everyone who voted for finalists in this year’s Nonbook Review Contest. All entries among the top ten best-ranked reviews became automatic finalists, and I also added two more from the 10-25 tier that voters or I especially liked. Honorable mentions were others from the 10-25 tier that I liked a lot. Finalists are Alpha School, Dementia, Islamic Geometric Patterns, Joan of Arc, Mashed Potatoes, Men, Ollantay, Phase I Research, Synaptic Plasticity, The ACX Commentariat, The Internet That Might Have Been, and The Russo-Ukrainian War. Honorable Mentions are at least Bishop's Castle, Bukele, Elon Musk's Algorithm, JFK Conspiracies, Martial Arts, Miniatur Wunderland, School (Review 1 by DK), and Watergate. I may promote some honorables to finalists depending on reader tolerance or unexpected opportunities. I will give you finer-grained score information after the contest ends. First finalist post is planned for this Friday.

Nootropics Survey1 mentions across 1 issues

Nootropics Survey is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between April 05, 2021 and April 05, 2021. The archive places it in contexts such as "I do another Nootropics Survey this year". It most often appears alongside 2020 presidential election, Adversarial Collaboration Contest, Alaska.

Reference entry: Nootropics Survey
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: April 05, 2021
Last seen: April 05, 2021

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Issue trail

2020 Predictions: Calibration Results April 05, 2021

2020 presidential election 1 shared issues
Adversarial Collaboration Contest 1 shared issues
Alaska 1 shared issues
Bay Area 1 shared issues
Biden 1 shared issues

Source context

2020 Predictions: Calibration Results

April 05, 2021 · Original source

SSC, ETC: 44. I do another Nootropics Survey this year: 70% 45. I do another SSC Survey this year: 90% 46. I start a Reader SSC Survey this year: 60% 47. I start a SSC Book Review Contest this year: 70% 48. I run another Adversarial Collaboration Contest this year: 10% 49. I publish [redacted]: 20% 50. I publish [redacted]: 50% 51. I publish [redacted]: 60% 52. I publish Studies On Slack: 80% 53. …conditional on being published, it gets at least 40,000 pageviews: 10% 54. I publish [redacted]: 60% 55. …conditional on being published, it gets at least 40,000 pageviews: 50% 56. More hits this year than last: 70% 57. Most hits ever this year: 20% 58. I finish Unsong revision this year: 40% 59. New co-blogger with more than 3 posts: 10%

Inline links: 45. I do another SSC Survey this year: 90%, Studies On Slack, 56. More hits this year than last: 70%

Norwegian Housemaid Law of 19481 mentions across 1 issues

Norwegian Housemaid Law of 1948 is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between April 08, 2021 and April 08, 2021. The archive places it in contexts such as "The Norwegian Housemaid Law of 1948 imposed labor standards". It most often appears alongside ACX, amoral familialism, An Introduction to Law and Economics.

Reference entry: Norwegian Housemaid Law of 1948
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: April 08, 2021
Last seen: April 08, 2021

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Issue trail

Your Book Review: Order Without Law April 08, 2021

ACX 1 shared issues
amoral familialism 1 shared issues
An Introduction to Law and Economics 1 shared issues
anthropology 1 shared issues
Association of American Publishers 1 shared issues

Source context

Your Book Review: Order Without Law

April 08, 2021 · Original source

There’s plenty of evidence refuting the extreme version of this camp. We can see that social norms often override law in people’s actions. (The Norwegian Housemaid Law of 1948 imposed labor standards that were violated by the employers in almost 90% of households studied, but no lawsuits were brought under it for two years.) People often apply nonlegal sanctions, like gossip and violence. (“Donald Black, who has gathered cross-cultural evidence on violent self-help, has asserted that much of what is ordinarily classified as crime is in fact retaliatory action aimed at achieving social control.”) Even specialists often don’t know the law in detail as it applies to their speciality. (The “great majority” of California therapists thought the Tarasoff decision imposed stronger duties than it actually did.) And people just don’t hire attorneys very often. We saw examples of all of these in Shasta County as well; part one can be seen as a challenge to the law-and-economics camp.

Inline links: Tarasoff

November 18th 20221 mentions across 1 issues

November 18th 2022 is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between November 04, 2022 and November 04, 2022. The archive places it in contexts such as "first Working Group meeting to develop the formal standard will be on November 18th 2022". It most often appears alongside 1DaySooner, acanthamoeba keratitis, ACX.

Reference entry: November 18th 2022
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: November 04, 2022
Last seen: November 04, 2022

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Issue trail

ACX Grants: Project Updates November 04, 2022

1DaySooner 1 shared issues
acanthamoeba keratitis 1 shared issues
ACX 1 shared issues
ACX Grantees Discord 1 shared issues
ACX Grants 1 shared issues

Source context

ACX Grants: Project Updates

November 04, 2022 · Original source

10: Hazard Labeling For Endocrine Disruptors (8/10) Nell Watson reports that “we were able to charm the IEEE into hosting our standards development process, start to finish! The standard development project is now formally registered as IEEE 3173. Our first Working Group meeting to develop the formal standard will be on November 18th 2022 at 16:00 UK time.”

Inline links: IEEE 3173

November 31 mentions across 1 issues

November 3 is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between March 03, 2026 and March 03, 2026. The archive places it in contexts such as "America will hold midterm elections on November 3". It most often appears alongside 2024 US election, 2026 elections, Agent Economy Of The Future.

Reference entry: November 3
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: March 03, 2026
Last seen: March 03, 2026

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Issue trail

Mantic Monday: Groundhog Day March 03, 2026

2024 US election 1 shared issues
2026 elections 1 shared issues
Agent Economy Of The Future 1 shared issues
Alan Cole 1 shared issues
Alireza Arafi 1 shared issues

Source context

Mantic Monday: Groundhog Day

March 03, 2026 · Original source

America will hold midterm elections on November 3. Incumbents always have a hard time during midterms, and Trump’s approval rating is low, so it’s expected to be a good year for Democrats. Prediction markets expect them to win at least the House (80% chance) and maybe even the Senate (20 - 40% chance).

November 4th, 17801 mentions across 1 issues

November 4th, 1780 is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between August 22, 2025 and August 22, 2025. The archive places it in contexts such as "On November 4th, 1780, a parish priest held a feast at his house in honor of King Charles’s birthday". It most often appears alongside Andes, Anti, Anti-suyu.

Reference entry: November 4th, 1780
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: August 22, 2025
Last seen: August 22, 2025

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Issue trail

Your Review: Ollantay August 22, 2025

Andes 1 shared issues
Anti 1 shared issues
Anti-suyu 1 shared issues
Antonio Arriaga 1 shared issues
Antonio Valdez 1 shared issues

Source context

Your Review: Ollantay

August 22, 2025 · Original source

On November 4th, 1780, a parish priest held a feast at his house in honor of King Charles’s birthday. Túpac was present, along with Antonio Arriaga, the aforementioned corregidor. It is not said whether or not Don Antonio Valdez was at this dinner, when Túpac proclaimed that Arriaga was under arrest for abuse of power. Túpac let it be known that the king had agreed with him that the Quechua should no longer be taxed, but that Arriaga had refused to enact this royal order.7 The punishment for this insubordination was death. Then he set up a scaffold in the center of town, waited for a suitable crowd to arrive, and publicly executed Arriaga. Thus began the Rebellion of Túpac Amaru II.

Inline links: 7

November of 19321 mentions across 1 issues

November of 1932 is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between August 04, 2023 and August 04, 2023. The archive places it in contexts such as "new elections, this time scheduled for November of 1932". It most often appears alongside Academy’s School of Architecture, Adolf, Adolf Hitler.

Reference entry: November of 1932
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: August 04, 2023
Last seen: August 04, 2023

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Your Book Review: The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich August 04, 2023

Academy’s School of Architecture 1 shared issues
Adolf 1 shared issues
Adolf Hitler 1 shared issues
Allies 1 shared issues
Alois 1 shared issues

Source context

Your Book Review: The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich

August 04, 2023 · Original source

This left the Reichstag without a majority party or a coalition. Hindenburg did what anyone would have done: he dissolved the Reichstag and called for new elections, this time scheduled for November of 1932.

Novyi God1 mentions across 1 issues

Novyi God is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between October 10, 2022 and October 10, 2022. The archive places it in contexts such as "the Russian word for their amped-up New Year’s festival is “Novyi God”". It most often appears alongside 9-11, Adraste, America.

Reference entry: Novyi God
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: October 10, 2022
Last seen: October 10, 2022

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Highlights From The Comments On Columbus Day October 10, 2022

9-11 1 shared issues
Adraste 1 shared issues
America 1 shared issues
American Jews 1 shared issues
Angels 1 shared issues

Source context

Highlights From The Comments On Columbus Day

October 10, 2022 · Original source

It seems that the Russian word for their amped-up New Year’s festival is “Novyi God”, which is an interesting kabbalistic correspondence. And Robert Jones writes:

Inline links: Robert Jones writes

Nuclear Warcasting, Part 21 mentions across 1 issues

Nuclear Warcasting, Part 2 is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between October 18, 2022 and October 18, 2022. The archive places it in contexts such as "Nuclear Warcasting, Part 2". It most often appears alongside 2024 elections, 5 U.S.C. §§ 558, 706, 538.

Reference entry: Nuclear Warcasting, Part 2
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: October 18, 2022
Last seen: October 18, 2022

Outbound links

Issue trail

22 October 18, 2022

2024 elections 1 shared issues
5 U.S.C. §§ 558, 706 1 shared issues
538 1 shared issues
Administrative Procedure Act 1 shared issues
Alex Tabarrok 1 shared issues

Source context

October 18, 2022 · Original source

Several additional plaintiffs I can’t find good information about You can find the complaint here. The plaintiffs write: The [CFTC’s action], without explanation or other indication of reasoned decisionmaking, without “written notice of the facts or conduct which may warrant” the Revocation, and without providing anyone “an opportunity to demonstrate or achieve compliance” with the terms of No-Action Relief or other requirements, violates the Administrative Procedure Act. 5 U.S.C. §§ 558, 706. Among other things, the Revocation is “arbitrary, capricious, an abuse of discretion, [and/or] otherwise not in accordance with law” and occurred “without observance of procedure required by law.” The Court should “hold unlawful and set aside” the Revocation, including its command that contracts that would otherwise turn on events occurring after February 2023 be prematurely liquidated. 5 U.S.C. § 706. The Court also should enter a preliminary and then permanent injunction against the prescriptions in the Revocation requiring the liquidation of contracts by February 2023, including contracts that concern the 2024 elections, well before they would ordinarily mature. I am not a lawyer, but it sounds kind of like they’re saying “the decision was bad, and the Administrative Procedure Act says regulators shouldn’t do bad things”. I am split between the part of me which hates government regulators doing bad things, and the part of me which feels like this is how you get a cover-your-ass-ocracy that never does anything at all without fifteen layers of paperwork and ten trillion dollars per action. Whatever. At least this time it’s in my favor. Of course there are prediction markets about it: Source: Insight Prediction Nuclear Warcasting, Part 2 Samotsvety Forecasting is a team made of top prediction market players and tournament winners, vaguely affiliated with effective altruism, who make predictions in the public interest. Earlier this year, they got attention for forecasting the risk of nuclear war - in particular, they said there was an a 0.01% per month chance of London getting nuked this spring. Since then, most of the fear has crystallized into a specific scenario. Suppose Russia is losing very badly in Ukraine. Putin, fearing a coup or revolution at home if he gives up, decides to use a tactical nuclear weapon, ie a “small” nuke more suited to winning battles than destroying cities. He nukes a Ukrainian battlefield position. The West is enraged at this violation of the nuclear taboo and feels like it needs to respond decisively - maybe by nuking something on Russia’s side, or through some other act of extreme escalation. Then Russia feels like they need to respond, and eventually it escalates to strikes on major cities and global nuclear war. There are reasons for doubt. Tactical nukes wouldn’t really be useful in Ukraine; the battle lines are too spread out and there’s no single place where a nuclear explosion could take out a substantial portion of Ukraine’s forces. In the past, nuclear powers have accepted lost wars gracefully rather than turning to nukes. And the Russians deny it, and saying this is all just Western propaganda intended to scare people. Amid this uncertainty, Samotsvety has published an update: now they are at 16% chance that “Russia uses any type of nuclear weapon in Ukraine in the next year”, and 0.02% per month of a strike on London. Although they didn’t mention it this time, they previously said the risk of a strike on San Francisco was a little over half that of London; I don’t know if that’s changed. See also Dan Keys’ comment here for some skepticism of Samotsvety’s process. Swift Centre is a lot like Samotsvety; they’re a collection of top forecasters brought together by EA to make important predictions. They also took a swing at the nuclear question, and said 9.1% chance of a hostile nuclear detonation in Europe in the next six months. They didn’t calculate the risk that this would spread to global war, but they did discuss how different scenarios would bring the risk up or down: One of my hopes for forecasting is that it eventually becomes so well-validated that decision-makers can take these kinds of considerations into account: “Should we sent ATACMS missiles to Ukraine? It would have such-and-such benefits, but also increase the risk of nuclear escalation by 3.6%, is it worth it?” We can’t directly compare Samotsvety and Swift because they’re predicting over different time periods. But assuming that there’s more risk in the next six months than in the six months after that, I think Samotsvety is a little higher but they’re not embarrassingly far off. Metaculus is a bit more optimistic than either, believing there’s only a 4% chance of detonation in Ukraine in 2023 and a 7% chance of any use in the next ~year. Max Tegmark is going much higher than anyone else and says 16% chance of global nuclear war. Kalshi Applies For Election Markets Kalshi is a regulated and fully-legal prediction market with good lobbyists and a compliance team. This means the CFTC probably won’t randomly shut them down one day. But it also means they can only create new markets with CFTC permission. In July, Kalshi asked the CFTC for permission to make midterm election prediction markets - specifically, which party will win control of the House and Senate. The CFTC has said they will make a decision by October 28 (which doesn’t leave much time for predicting to happen before the November 8 election, but I guess it sets a precedent). September was the Request For Comment period, when the CFTC solicited comments from stakeholders about what they should do. Kalshi tried really hard to get lots of people to send in positive assessments - I know this because of how many people asked me “why is the CEO of Kalshi emailing me about this thing?” Their strategy seems to have worked; among the people who wrote to the CFTC in support were: A managing director at JP Morgan

Inline links: additional plaintiffs, here, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LaYa!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0aaec309-35d6-430d-aeaa-b7cab022f4d6_548x215.png, Insight Prediction, Samotsvety Forecasting, Earlier this year, accepted lost wars gracefully, published an update, comment here, Swift Centre, They also took a swing at the nuclear question, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TczM!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F702c1236-47d9-4c60-9b99-ab9b2ca320e7_737x377.png, a 4% chance, a 7% chance, 16% chance, In July, they will make a decision by October 28, A managing director at JP Morgan

Nuremberg trials1 mentions across 1 issues

Nuremberg trials is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between July 01, 2022 and July 01, 2022. The archive places it in contexts such as "He is also credited as the author of the arguments that were used against the Nazis at the Nuremburg trials". It most often appears alongside 1793, 1821, 1847.

Reference entry: Nuremberg trials
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: July 01, 2022
Last seen: July 01, 2022

Outbound links

Issue trail

Your Book Review: The Internationalists July 01, 2022

1793 1 shared issues
1821 1 shared issues
1847 1 shared issues
1928 Kellogg-Briand Peace Pact 1 shared issues
500 million and not one more 1 shared issues

Source context

Your Book Review: The Internationalists

July 01, 2022 · Original source

Hersch Lauterpacht was a lawyer who worked on the intellectual implications that the Pact had on other behavior in international relations, including the changes to expectations of neutrality, the use of sanctions, and many other aspects. He is also credited as the author of the arguments that were used against the Nazis at the Nuremburg trials, though he himself did not attend, perhaps because he had lost nearly his entire family to the Holocaust.

Inline links: Hersch Lauterpacht

NY Tech Week1 mentions across 1 issues

NY Tech Week is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between May 26, 2025 and May 26, 2025. The archive places it in contexts such as "Spartacus will be at NY Tech Week again". It most often appears alongside ACX MEETUP, Aella, AI 2027 team.

Reference entry: NY Tech Week
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: May 26, 2025
Last seen: May 26, 2025

Outbound links

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/01/14/viktor-orbans-far-right-vision-for-europe

Issue trail

Open Thread 383 May 26, 2025

ACX MEETUP 1 shared issues
Aella 1 shared issues
AI 2027 team 1 shared issues
AI Safety, Ethics, and Society 1 shared issues
Arbor Summer Camp 1 shared issues

Source context

Open Thread 383

May 26, 2025 · Original source

5: ACX grantee Spartacus will be at NY Tech Week again, hosting an event on collective action for AI safety.

Inline links: an event on collective action for AI safety

NYC congestion pricing1 mentions across 1 issues

NYC congestion pricing is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between June 23, 2023 and June 23, 2023. The archive places it in contexts such as "NYC congestion pricing". It most often appears alongside 1965, 1968 Summer Olympics, 2000 election.

Reference entry: NYC congestion pricing
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: June 23, 2023
Last seen: June 23, 2023

Outbound links

Issue trail

Your Book Review: Public Citizens June 23, 2023

1965 1 shared issues
1968 Summer Olympics 1 shared issues
2000 election 1 shared issues
2023 book review contest 1 shared issues
American Capitalism 1 shared issues

Source context

Your Book Review: Public Citizens

June 23, 2023 · Original source

Today, business groups dominate agency notice and comment periods, submitting almost ten time as many comments as public interest groups or individual citizens13. Industry submits over 80% of all comments to the EPA. And the Freedom of Information Act—championed by Nader, and hailed as an unprecedented mechanism for government transparency when it was passed in 1966—is today mostly used by businesses for profit-making purposes14. Among the many projects blocked or delayed by lawsuit activism—or the excessive legal review designed to preempt it—are public transit in Hawaii, wind farms on Cape Cod and upstate New York, and NYC congestion pricing, not to mention the millions of new homes around the country we should be building but aren’t.

Inline links: submitting almost ten time as many comments, 13, over 80%, mostly used, 14, public transit in Hawaii, Cape Cod, upstate New York, NYC congestion pricing

NYC TechWeek1 mentions across 1 issues

NYC TechWeek is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between May 27, 2024 and May 27, 2024. The archive places it in contexts such as "The team wants to announce that they'll be unveiling their MVP during NYC TechWeek". It most often appears alongside Astralcodexten, DaystarEld, Jordan Braunstein.

Reference entry: NYC TechWeek
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: May 27, 2024
Last seen: May 27, 2024

Outbound links

Issue trail

Open Thread 331 May 27, 2024

Astralcodexten 1 shared issues
DaystarEld 1 shared issues
Jordan Braunstein 1 shared issues
Pope Alignment Research 1 shared issues
Short Women In AI Safety 1 shared issues

Source context

Open Thread 331

May 27, 2024 · Original source

1: ACX grantee Spartacus is an app for assurance contracts, ie solving collective action problems, ie Kickstarter for everything. If you would go to a protest march if and only if there are 10,000 other people there, you can mark your interest on the app and get notified if it reaches its goal. The team wants to announce that they'll be unveiling their MVP during NYC TechWeek at the event listed here; anyone in the area is welcome to attend. Project lead Jordan Braunstein will be in NYC from 5/29 to 6/15 and is interested in meeting anyone interested in "collaboration, partnerships, use cases, red teaming, and additional funding sources". Email him at jordan@spartacus.app.

Inline links: Spartacus, is, NYC TechWeek, here

NZ EA event (EA Summit)1 mentions across 1 issues

NZ EA event (EA Summit) is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between August 29, 2025 and August 29, 2025. The archive places it in contexts such as "we've got the biggest ever NZ EA event (EA Summit) happening the next day". It most often appears alongside "Beer Capital" pub, 100 Black Birch Trail, 11841 Wagner Street, Culver City.

Reference entry: NZ EA event (EA Summit)
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: August 29, 2025
Last seen: August 29, 2025

Outbound links

Issue trail

Meetups Everywhere 2025: Times and Places August 29, 2025

"Beer Capital" pub 1 shared issues
100 Black Birch Trail 1 shared issues
11841 Wagner Street, Culver City 1 shared issues
13 Mile road 1 shared issues
131 Colonie Center 1 shared issues

Source context

Meetups Everywhere 2025: Times and Places

August 29, 2025 · Original source

Contact: Gavin Contact Info: bisga673[a t]student[period]otago[period]ac[period]nz Time: Friday, September 26th, 5:30 PM Location: WEA Canterbury Workers' Educational Association - don't have details about the exact entrance right now but it will be obvious and if you are unsure, email me sometime beforehand Coordinates: https://plus.codes/4V8JFJCJ+5M Group Link: EA group link (same organiser): https://www.facebook.com/groups/EAChristchurch Notes: We'll have a pot luck, and later in the evening a Petrov Day celebration. I'm a big reader of ACX and would love to connect with similar people (and connect you with some Chch EA people if you're interested). Note we've got the biggest ever NZ EA event (EA Summit) happening the next day and you're welcome to come to that too! https://www.facebook.com/share/1Aw5PaF7ms/ More info at that link. Please RSVP on facebook if you can't bring food. (Please RSVP anyway but don't let it stop you from coming)

Inline links: https://plus.codes/4V8JFJCJ+5M, https://www.facebook.com/groups/EAChristchurch

NZ EA Summit1 mentions across 1 issues

NZ EA Summit is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 1 times across 1 issues between August 29, 2025 and August 29, 2025. The archive places it in contexts such as "biggest ever NZ EA event (EA Summit) happening the next day". It most often appears alongside "Beer Capital" pub, 100 Black Birch Trail, 11841 Wagner Street, Culver City.

Reference entry: NZ EA Summit
Mention count: 1
Issue count: 1
First seen: August 29, 2025
Last seen: August 29, 2025

Outbound links

Issue trail

Meetups Everywhere 2025: Times and Places August 29, 2025

"Beer Capital" pub 1 shared issues
100 Black Birch Trail 1 shared issues
11841 Wagner Street, Culver City 1 shared issues
13 Mile road 1 shared issues
131 Colonie Center 1 shared issues

Source context

Meetups Everywhere 2025: Times and Places

August 29, 2025 · Original source

Contact: Gavin Contact Info: bisga673[a t]student[period]otago[period]ac[period]nz Time: Friday, September 26th, 5:30 PM Location: WEA Canterbury Workers' Educational Association - don't have details about the exact entrance right now but it will be obvious and if you are unsure, email me sometime beforehand Coordinates: https://plus.codes/4V8JFJCJ+5M Group Link: EA group link (same organiser): https://www.facebook.com/groups/EAChristchurch Notes: We'll have a pot luck, and later in the evening a Petrov Day celebration. I'm a big reader of ACX and would love to connect with similar people (and connect you with some Chch EA people if you're interested). Note we've got the biggest ever NZ EA event (EA Summit) happening the next day and you're welcome to come to that too! https://www.facebook.com/share/1Aw5PaF7ms/ More info at that link. Please RSVP on facebook if you can't bring food. (Please RSVP anyway but don't let it stop you from coming)

Inline links: https://plus.codes/4V8JFJCJ+5M, https://www.facebook.com/groups/EAChristchurch

Astral Codex Ten

Table of Contents

Atlas

Events: N

Events: N

Reference Index

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