Astral Codex Ten

Michigan

39 min read

Michigan

Article

Michigan is a recurring place in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 21 times across 21 issues between May 21, 2021 and April 01, 2026. The archive places it in contexts such as “Michigan cars”; “Michigan governor kidnapping plot”; “as an assessor in Southfield in Michigan”. It most often appears alongside Australia, France, San Francisco.

Metadata

  • Category: Places
  • Mention count: 21
  • Issue count: 21
  • First seen: May 21, 2021
  • Last seen: April 01, 2026

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

Your Book Review: The Accidental Superpower
May 21, 2021 · Original source
We didn’t just get tremendous economic growth though – we got “magical” results, but they were based on a one-time confluence of factors that “overwhelmed the normal rule that lots of twenty-and thirty-somethings make for an expensive-capital environment.” What were these one-time accelerants? He identifies the peace dividend – cuts in military spending that allowed capital to be put to more productive uses – as one such change, along with the emergent dominance of the US dollar, particularly boosted by Russian demand thanks to the collapse of their currency, and a later boost in demand thanks to the East Asian financial crisis. With the Europeans’ decision to eliminate national currencies (agreed upon in a 1992 treaty, with the Euro to be introduced in 1999), they became relatively unattractive, and the Euro itself (an “unprecedented experiment in pan-government planning”) was too risky. Many holders of European currencies switched to the US dollar, such that between 1994 and 2002 (“when the euro finally got some traction and the surge dialed back”) there was a $2 trillion increase in the money supply. Zeihan also points to a collapse in commodities prices influenced by the elimination of Russian demand, but continued Russian production of oil and other commodities, followed by a collapse in demand thanks to the East Asian financial crisis. This story of capital coming to the West (“allowing consumption-driven growth not simply to soar, but to explode”) is one of chance world events. However, the story of capital coming from the Boomer cohort is one of demographics. By the 2000s, they’re the mature workers of Zeihan’s four stages described above – and as the bulge in the demographic pyramid, they started flooding the world with capital. Accordingly, “The cost of credit plummeted to levels never before experienced.” Zeihan suggests that developed-world demographics are the cause of booms in places that haven’t been well-developed, from Southern Europe to Brazil, Russia, and India. But he says it’s quickly coming to an end; Boomer savings into stocks and bonds will be moving to low-risk instruments and then turning into withdrawals rather than savings, and the cohort behind them is too small to replace all of that capital. And it’s a worldwide phenomenon: In every single developed country there is currently an American-style population inversion between the about-to-retire and the about-to-be-mature-workers age groups. Japan’s Boomers bulge is a decade older than the American equivalent, while Spain’s is roughly fifteen years younger. Everyone else falls somewhere in between. It dictates a period of chronically low growth and high credit costs, just not on precisely the same time frame. The undeveloped world is that way because it can’t self-fund, so without foreign capital, their growth will come to an end. In sum, the 1990-2005 period of high growth and easy capital was a historical anomaly; “the post-Cold War financial flight was a once-in-a-generation event” and the demographic bulge that coincided with it won’t come around again for decades, if ever. 4 2: America’s incredible advantages As noted above, Zeihan really likes America’s position in the world. He likes its demographics (relative to other developed countries) and loves its geography. Taking the population question first, in America, “the demographic inversion is only a temporary development.” America is younger than the rest of the developed world, as it urbanized later and its enormous size made having kids easier despite that urbanization (i.e., the suburbs exist). This makes the demographic crunch a single-generation issue, as the Millennials are a huge cohort. And even if they weren’t, America assimilates immigrants more easily than other places – Zeihan attributes this to it being a “settler society” – which can help with demographic problems. The rest of the developed world doesn’t have similar cohorts following their massive Boomer and Gen-X analogues. Accordingly: While the American financial world will be past its period of maximum stress by 2030, for the rest of the world 2030 will simply be another year of an ever-deepening imbalance between retirees and taxpayers, with smaller and smaller generations coming up the ranks generating less and less growth. For the developed world beyond the United States—and even large portions of the developing world—chronic capital poverty and permanent recession will be the new normal from which there is no return. Together with America’s Millennial-led growth and abundant energy (there’s a chapter explaining how shale is a done deal that, as of the mid-2014 writing, already made America the world’s largest energy producer 5), by 2030 Zeihan sees it as practically the only country with an economy worth noting. Anyone who is familiar with American geography should see the argument that’s coming about that aspect of Zeihan’s model. Isn’t the Mississippi River a pretty big deal? And those oceans on the east and west coasts seem like nice borders. Indeed, while he gives us many reasons why there was always going to be an American superpower, geography is central to his story. He has lots to say about America’s internal river systems, farmland, and other geographic features. What mountain barriers exist are apparently better than in other countries in terms of allowing internal transport; the Rockies have major passes, several of which have large cities within them, and the easiest pass in the Appalachians featured America’s first National Road, 130 miles of buried logs that linked two rivers, and thus the east coast with the best farmland in the world. As we saw with his exposition on the Nile, Zeihan puts a lot of emphasis on the value of river systems. He argues that America’s waterway network alone should be sufficient for “global dominance.” The numbers he provides in support of this point are impressive. For example, “the Mississippi is only one of twelve major navigable American rivers. Collectively, all of America’s temperate-zone rivers are 14,650 miles long. China and Germany each have about 2,000 miles, France about 1,000. The entirety of the Arab world has but 120.” He praises US barrier islands that mitigate oceanic destruction and effectively create another river system, as well as the fact that the river system is an actual network. All of this gives America more internal waterways than the rest of the world combined. Thus, we get cheap transportation for “Nebraska corn or Tennessee whiskey or Texas oil or New Jersey steel or Georgia peaches or Michigan cars,” enabling savings that “can be used for whatever Americans (or their government) want, from iPhones to aircraft carrier battle groups.” America doesn’t have to spend on artificial infrastructure, like German roads and rails, but when it does, the competition from the rivers keeps transport costs low. Cheap internal transportation has other benefits. “It’s a recipe for small government and high levels of entrepreneurship,” as small government keeps taxes low, leaving people with plenty of capital. Some people may think of the American consumer with disdain, but it isn’t a new phenomenon. Zeihan points out that America has been the world’s largest consumer market “since shortly after the Civil War.” His observation about a robust food supply forming the base of any civilization bodes well for America, which apparently has the largest connected stretch of quality farmland in the world (the Midwest), the value of which is exponentially increased by the fact that it overlaps with so many of these amazing river systems. It isn’t just the Midwest that he gushes over. California’s Central Valley and the Sacramento River, and Washington and Oregon’s farmland with the Columbia and Snake Rivers get praise. The only major farmland more than 150 miles from a navigable waterway is some of the Great Plains near the Rockies. ***** Zeihan provides a reminder that national security is actually a thing, and that at its most basic level, it’s about protection against invasions. It was something of a shock reading about America’s land borders in that context. “As Santa Anna discovered during the Texas Independence War, there is no good staging location in (contemporary) Mexican territory that could strike at American lands.” And, “Canada’s border with the United States is much longer, more varied, and even more successful at keeping the two countries separated,” thanks to mountains and thick forests over much of it. The mid-continent lands are much more connected, but Zeihan frames these Canadian areas as basically American; they’re physically separated from Canada’s core eastern provinces, so trade with them is weaker than with the closer American states. Then there are the oceans. As much as Zeihan loves deserts for protection, he loves oceans more (particularly in a post-World War II world; more on that below). We get a story about the War of 1812 nearly splitting America into three when the British attacked Baltimore. America learned about “strategic vulnerability and sea approaches,” as the attack “on Baltimore—indeed, the entire war effort—would have been impossible without launching grounds in Canada and the Caribbean.” American foreign policy since then can be understood with respect to this lesson. Zeihan cites it as inspiration for America’s steps to make its ocean borders truly impenetrable, such as working to sever Canada from Britain, and the imperial-era acquisitions of Alaska, Hawaii, Midway, Puerto Rico, and de facto control of Cuba (preventing enemies from cutting off Mississippi River-based trade from the rest of the world). There’s more to Zeihan’s being awestruck by America than his analysis of its balance of transport advantages. He argues that America has been the world leader for agriculture, technology, finance, and industry since the Civil War, and runs through a litany of reasons for its preeminence: America is like a continent-sized island (because of its effective land borders), which is always going to be a more natural naval power than a more landlocked country.
Inline links: 4, 5
Links For July
July 23, 2021 · Original source
23: Like everyone else, I read the Buzzfeed piece claiming that the Michigan governor kidnapping plot was, let’s say, “helped along” by the FBI an inappropriate amount. I came out of it thinking that these were some pretty scary dudes who were the type of people who might kidnap governors, but that it seemed possible they would never have gotten around to starting any particular governor-kidnapping operation if not for FBI entrapment. I’m not sure what to think about that - as a liberal, I want to protect the norm of not punishing people for crimes unless they definitely actually came up with the plan to commit them themselves. But I have trouble feeling as outraged as I’d like to about a plan to get potential-governor-kidnappers off the streets faster by convincing them to commit to an actual governor-kidnapping on some specific date that the FBI can arrest them for. And I think about things like how many people get their bikes stolen in the Bay Area, and how police never do anything about it, and how one of the proposals is to plant honeypot bikes in easily-watchable areas and arrest the people who steal them until maybe eventually San Franciscans get the message that bike-stealing can have negative consequences - and this has a lot to recommend it over just letting bikes get stolen (or governors get kidnapped) every so often. Anyway, my favorite part of the article was reading about how much all the governor-kidnapper militia people cared about making sure nobody thought they were racist, even while they were plotting domestic terrorism. This definitely feels like a metaphor for life.
Inline links: the Buzzfeed piece claiming
Does Georgism Work, Part 3: Can Unimproved Land Value be Accurately Assessed Separately From Buildings?
December 11, 2021 · Original source
Some friends suggested I get in touch with Ted Gwartney, former professor of Real Estate Appraisal at Baruch College, New York. He has an MAI in Land & Commercial Appraisal from the Appraisal Institute and is former president of the Council of Georgist Organizations. He has a lot of professional experience as an assessor in British Columbia, Southfield in Michigan, and Hartford, Bridgeport, and Greenwich in Connecticut.
Inline links: MAI, Appraisal Institute, Council of Georgist Organizations
ACX Grants Results
December 28, 2021 · Original source
Yoram Bauman, $50,000, to help fund his campaign for economically literate climate change solutions. Bauman was the sponsor of the 2016 Washington carbon tax ballot initiative, which failed by a small margin. Now he's built up a coalition of economists, environmentalists, and friendly politicians to try to get climate measures passed or on the ballot in seven states by 2024. Bauman is the world's only “stand-up economist”, and also on track to be the world's only person to win a bet with Bryan Caplan. You can follow or donate to the effort he’s part of in Utah at CleanTheDarnAir.org, connect via email or twitter to chat about Nebraska, South Dakota, Arizona, Michigan, or your favorite state (yoram@standupeconomist.com, @standupecon), or sign up for overall updates and see comedy videos at https://standupeconomist.com/videos/.
Inline links: Yoram Bauman, on track, Bryan Caplan, CleanTheDarnAir.org, yoram@standupeconomist.com, @standupecon, https://standupeconomist.com/videos/
Open Thread 210
February 07, 2022 · Original source
One paragraph summary of Jan 2022 progress on #climate24x7 (advancing smart climate efforts in the legislature and/or via 2024 ballot measures in at least 7 states): In Nebraska, climate-concerned R state senator John McCollister introduced LB944, a short 3-page bill that cuts the regressive 5.5% state sales tax rate on electricity once electric utilities hit certain carbon intensity targets; see these one-pagers. We have a page of potential improvements based feedback from utility folks and others and are anticipating a public hearing in late February or early March. A similar idea is making progress in South Dakota, where a D legislator has expressed interest in similar legislation, and in Arizona, where I’ve hired Autumn Johnson of Tierra Strategy to pursue this; we’ve written one-pagers and draft legislation, she’s gotten fairly positive feedback from utilities, enviros, and legislative staff, and we’re doing our best to find a House member to introduce legislation before the cut-off of Friday Feb 4. In Utah we continue to work on the signature-gathering plan for the Clean The Darn Air 2024 ballot measure effort; we also anticipate the introduction of a similar bill in this year’s legislative session. Also trying to push forward with ideas or exploratory conversations in Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, and Michigan. Additional funding would help extend Autumn’s contract and help push forward faster in Nebraska, South Dakota, and elsewhere! From Yoram Bauman (yoram@standupeconomist.com, @standupecon)
Inline links: John McCollister, LB944, one-pagers, Tierra Strategy, one-pagers, draft legislation, plan, Clean The Darn Air, yoram@standupeconomist.com
Contra Hoel On Aristocratic Tutoring
March 22, 2022 · Original source
He argues the most likely cause is the decline of “aristocratic tutoring” - an educational method typical among the ultra-rich of the past - and its replacement with normal public (or private) schools. The answer must lie in education somewhere [...] paradoxically there exists an agreed-upon and specific answer to the single best way to educate children, a way that has clear, obvious, and strong effects. The problem is that this answer is unacceptable. The superior method of education is deeply unfair and privileges those at the very top of the socioeconomic ladder. It’s an answer that was well-known historically, and is also observed by education researchers today: tutoring. […] Let us call [the] past form aristocratic tutoring, to distinguish it from a tutor you meet in a coffeeshop to go over SAT math problems while the clock ticks down. It’s also different than “tiger parenting,” which is specifically focused around the resume padding that’s needed for kids to meet the impossible requirements for high-tier colleges. Aristocratic tutoring was not focused on measurables. Historically, it usually involved a paid adult tutor, who was an expert in the field, spending significant time with a young child or teenager, instructing them but also engaging them in discussions, often in a live-in capacity, fostering both knowledge but also engagement with intellectual subjects and fields. He amply proves that many of the great geniuses of the past, including Bertrand Russell, Albert Einstein, and John von Neumann received tutoring like this, and suggests that its absence (more because of strengthening democratic norms than because people don’t have the money) might be why we don’t see figures of their stature anymore. II. I agree that this kind of tutoring sounds great. I wouldn’t be surprised if it has a big effect size. But it’s not the reason we have fewer geniuses. Why not? Suppose that half of past geniuses were tutored this way, and half weren’t. Even if every single genius who was tutored owed his genius entirely to the tutoring, the tutoring could only explain half of geniuses. That means that after the tutoring stopped, we would expect half as many geniuses. But Hoel is making a stronger claim: that there are almost no geniuses today. For aristocratic tutoring to explain that, we would need for almost all past geniuses to be aristocratically tutored. But as far as I can tell, that isn’t true. Probably well below half of them were. Just to give some examples: Isaac Newton went to a local school at at 12, and to Cambridge at 17. The Wikipedia page on his early life doesn't mention "tutor", except in the context of a college teacher. His adopted father was a country parson, and his family wasn't rich enough to do aristocratic tutoring even if they'd wanted to. Articles on his early life stress his self-motivated nature: he was constantly building things and observing things on his own time. Wolfgang Mozart was tutored, but primarily by his father, himself an excellent violinist. According to his Wikipedia article, "In his early years, Wolfgang's father was his only teacher". Mozart was already an obvious child prodigy by 6 or 7, and wrote his first symphony at 8. I can't find any evidence that non-family members contributed to his education. This kind of tutoring is still common; my wife learned cello from her grandmother, a professional music tutor. Charles Darwin went to a local school at age 8, switched to a boarding school at 9, spent a summer at age 16 following his father (a doctor) around as he treated patients, then went to medical school. He switched to regular college at Cambridge at 19, where he seemed to have a pretty traditional education. Wikipedia has a long article on his education, which doesn't mention the word "tutor" until college age, when he "spent the autumn term at home studying Greek with a tutor". Later in college, he "joined other Cambridge friends on a three-month "reading party" at Barmouth on the coast of Wales to revise their studies with private tutors". I don't think he had a stronger relationship with being tutored himself, especially not in childhood. His summer following his father around learning medicine was probably good for him, but not outside the bounds of what still happens today (I followed my father around learning medicine). Louis Pasteur was born "to a Catholic family of a poor tanner". He went to primary school at 8 and college at 16. I can't find any evidence he was tutored. Charles Dickens barely seems to have been educated at all. His family was so poor that he spent some of his childhood working in a sweatshop. During other periods they did a little better and he went to small lower-to-middle-class private schools. Dickens seems to have gotten most of his education by reading novels on his own. Thomas Edison grew up poor in Michigan. Again according to Wikipedia, "Edison was taught reading, writing, and arithmetic by his mother, who used to be a school teacher. He attended school for only a few months. However, one biographer described him as a very curious child who learned most things by reading on his own. As a child, he became fascinated with technology and spent hours working on experiments at home." Hoel argues that the decline in aristocratic tutoring is “why we stopped making Einsteins”. But then why did we stop making Newtons, Mozarts, Darwins, Pasteurs, Dickenses, and Edisons? III. One other argument: Hoel cites Holden Karnofsky’s Where’s Today’s Beethoven?, which suggests that music is a typical case of the genius decline. But aristocratic tutoring in music is alive and well. When my brother was identified as a piano prodigy, my (well-off but not absurdly rich) parents hired jazz musician Linda Martinez to tutor him. I asked around and this is apparently pretty common in music. In fact, it seems common across a variety of fields, especially those that aren’t taught in school and where success doesn’t make you too rich to need tutoring money (a friend brings up chess as another example). If aristocratic tutoring were a significant factor behind declining genius, we would expect to see a split: fields like science where tutoring is rare would lose their geniuses, whereas fields like music where tutoring is common would be as genius-filled as ever. But people use music as a typical example of a declining-genius field. So that can’t be it. IV. So what’s my explanation? You will not be surprised to hear it’s the maximally boring one, a combination of: Good ideas are getting harder to find. In 300 BC, if you noticed that the water level in your bathtub got higher when you got into it, you were allowed to run through the streets shouting “eureka!” and declare yourself to be a genius. Now you would need some 400 page mathematical proof drawing on the topology of eight-dimensional manifolds in order to get that kind of cred.
Inline links: Isaac Newton, Wolfgang Mozart, Charles Darwin, Louis Pasteur, Charles Dickens, Thomas Edison, Where’s Today’s Beethoven?, Linda Martinez, Good ideas are getting harder to find
Highlights From The Comments On The Central Valley
October 13, 2022 · Original source
Per capita income: Cost of living is still much less, but housing prices have really spiked once again. We were ground zero (OK, maybe some areas in Michigan, but...) in the 2007ish crash; we had a wild, obvious bubble. This feels less bubbly. Housing prices are a genuine issue.
Half An Hour Before Dawn In San Francisco
March 20, 2023 · Original source
I could have stayed in Michigan. There were forests and lakes and homes with little gardens. Instead I’m here. We pay rents that would bankrupt a medieval principality to get front-row seats for the hinge of history. It will be the best investment we ever make. Imagine living when the first lungfish crawled out of the primordial ooze, and missing it because the tidepool down the way had cheaper housing. Imagine living on Earth in 65,000,000 BC, and being anywhere except Chicxulub.
A Muslim woman walks by in traditional dress, followed by a dark black man in African garb. All clothing sends a message; theirs is “everything that ever happened anywhere in the world however far away has converged here for this moment; it was all for this.” A crazy person walks by, mumbling to himself. We nod at him and let him pass; he seems to know the score. Here we have all gathered, abandoning our green and pleasant homes in Pakistan or Nigeria or Michigan to see the doomed summoning-city at the end of time. Chicxulub or bust. It’s a miracle we only get one or two madmen per city block.
Book Review: From Oversight To Overkill
April 12, 2023 · Original source
To prove that it could work in any situation, he teamed up with the Michigan Hospital Association, which included under-resourced Detroit hospitals. They agreed to ask their nurses to enforce checklists. Johns Hopkins IRB approved the study, noting that because no personal patient data was involved, it could avoid certain difficult rules related to privacy. Michigan started the study. Preliminary results were great; it seemed that tens to hundreds of lives were being saved per month. The New Yorker wrote a glowing article about the results.
OHRP read the article, investigated, and learned that Johns Hopkins IRB had exempted the study from the privacy restrictions. These restrictions were hard-to-interpret, but OHRP decided to take a maximalist approach. They stepped in, shut down the study, and said it could not restart until they got consent from every patient, doctor, and nurse involved, plus separate approval from each Michigan hospital’s IRB. This was impossible; even if all doctors and nurses unanimously consented, the patients were mostly unconscious, and the under-resourced Detroit hospitals didn’t have IRBs. The OHRP’s answer would make Hans Jonas proud - that’s not our problem, guess you have to cancel the study.
Open Thread 279
June 05, 2023 · Original source
2: Some link corrections: Canada’s population center may not be in Michigan. Nisean horses might be fake? (although clearly by Roman/Byzantine times there were specific horses people thought were Nisean) Australia’s National Sorry Day is minor and not helpful. Maybe I was metamistaken in saying I was mistaken about the bonobo study, I don’t even know anymore and will have to look into this in more depth.
Inline links: may not be in Michigan, might be fake, is minor and not helpful, about the bonobo study
Meetups Everywhere 2023: Times & Places
August 25, 2023 · Original source
NORTHAMPTON, MASSACHUSETTS, USA Contact: Alex Liebowitz Contact Info: alex[at]alexliebowitz[dot]com Time: Saturday, September 2nd, 6:00 PM Location: Packard's (we have the Library Room in the back reserved), 14 Masonic St., Northampton, MA 01060 Coordinates: https://plus.codes/87J98998+7M Event Link: https://www.lesswrong.com/events/Zxd2Sa4HaeESZWHXD/northampton-ma-acx-meetup-meetups-everywhere-fall-2023 Group Link: https://www.lesswrong.com/groups/spf3oqPxAJLWwREb3 Notes: We're meeting in the Library Room in the way back of Packard's (we have it reserved). This has been one of our go-to meeting spots in the past and it works pretty well. Michigan ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN, USA Contact: Joseph Contact Info: jwpryorprojects[at]gmail[dot]com Time: Saturday, September 16th, 1:00 PM Location: Friends Meeting House, 1420 Hill St., Ann Arbor, MI 48104 , in the back yard. I'll be wearing black and have a white sign that says "ACX". Coordinates: https://plus.codes/86JR77C9+PR6 Event Link: https://www.meetup.com/ann-arbor-ssc-rationalist-meetup-group/events/295618794/ Group Link: https://www.meetup.com/Ann-Arbor-SSC-Rationalist-Meetup-Group/ Notes: Feel free to contact me through the meetup app or by email. We'll also be meeting on Saturday October 21st. We have Monthly Zoom meetups on Thursday evenings!
Inline links: https://plus.codes/87J98998+7M, https://www.lesswrong.com/events/Zxd2Sa4HaeESZWHXD/northampton-ma-acx-meetup-meetups-everywhere-fall-2023, https://www.lesswrong.com/groups/spf3oqPxAJLWwREb3, https://plus.codes/86JR77C9+PR6, https://www.meetup.com/ann-arbor-ssc-rationalist-meetup-group/events/295618794/, https://www.meetup.com/Ann-Arbor-SSC-Rationalist-Meetup-Group/
ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN, USA Contact: Joseph Contact Info: jwpryorprojects[at]gmail[dot]com Time: Saturday, September 16th, 1:00 PM Location: Friends Meeting House, 1420 Hill St., Ann Arbor, MI 48104 , in the back yard. I'll be wearing black and have a white sign that says "ACX". Coordinates: https://plus.codes/86JR77C9+PR6 Event Link: https://www.meetup.com/ann-arbor-ssc-rationalist-meetup-group/events/295618794/ Group Link: https://www.meetup.com/Ann-Arbor-SSC-Rationalist-Meetup-Group/ Notes: Feel free to contact me through the meetup app or by email. We'll also be meeting on Saturday October 21st. We have Monthly Zoom meetups on Thursday evenings!
Inline links: https://plus.codes/86JR77C9+PR6, https://www.meetup.com/ann-arbor-ssc-rationalist-meetup-group/events/295618794/, https://www.meetup.com/Ann-Arbor-SSC-Rationalist-Meetup-Group/
JACKSON, MICHIGAN, USA Contact: Joseph Contact Info: jwpryorprojects[at]gmail[dot]com Time: Saturday, September 23rd, 3:00 PM Location: 325 Carr Street, Jackson Mi 49201. The house is green with a fire hydrant in the front yard. The driveway is shared with my neighbor so please park on the street. Coordinates: https://plus.codes/86JQ7H2H+96 Group Link: https://www.meetup.com/ann-arbor-ssc-rationalist-meetup-group/ Notes: Please rsvp by email. I organize the Ann Arbor meetups but I live in Jackson, looking to see if there's anyone interested in a Jackson meetup as well! I'll have some snacks and drinks. Unless the weather is bad we'll hang out in the back yard and have a small fire. Bring your favorite camping chair.
Inline links: https://plus.codes/86JQ7H2H+96, https://www.meetup.com/ann-arbor-ssc-rationalist-meetup-group/
Open Thread 300
October 30, 2023 · Original source
2: Speaking of ACX Grants, one of last round’s grants went to Lars Doucet and Will Jarvis to research Georgist land value taxes; they later started the company ValueBase. Now they’re trying to coordinate support for a potential upcoming land value tax in Detroit. If you live in Michigan and want to help, they want to talk to you about the best ways to contact your state representative. Please get in touch with them via this form.
Inline links: ValueBase, land value tax in Detroit, via this form
Spring Meetups Everywhere 2024
March 30, 2024 · Original source
NORTHAMPTON, MASSACHUSETTS, USA Contact: Alex Liebowitz Contact Info: alex[at]alexliebowitz[dot]com Time: Saturday, April 13th, 6:00 PM Location: Common house at 100 Black Birch Trail, Northampton, MA 01062. The common house is the first building you see when coming into the community (but after the event parking, which lines the road leading in on the right). Facebook and Apple Maps show it as being in Florence, but Google Maps, Bing Maps and the official site show it as being in Northampton. (Florence is a village within Northampton, but both addresses are the same place.) Coordinates: https://plus.codes/87J9884H+VF Event Link: https://www.lesswrong.com/events/78BKdkLerGaBwGTx6/northampton-ma-acx-meetup-spring-2024-meetups-everywhere Group Link: There's a mailing list, but you just email me at alex[at]alexliebowitz[dot]com to get on. Notes: Guest parking should be along the road leading in (Black Birch Trail), parking to the right as you drive in. There is an Event Parking sign but it is not the most visible. There are disabled spaces directly in front of the Common House (100 Black Birch Trail). If we overflow the road, people can use the resident lots to the left and right. Michigan ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN, USA Contact: Joseph Pryor Contact Info: jwpryorprojects[at]gmail[dot]com Time: Saturday, April 20th, 1:00 PM Location: 1420 Hill Street Ann Arbor Michigan. We'll be meeting at the Friends Meetinghouse (euphemism for Quaker) in the back yard if weather allows, otherwise we'll meet in the corner room. 1-5pm. The restrooms are open.. Two small parking lots (~12 spaces total) are located by the alley at the rear of the property, plus a handicap parking space. Parking is available on Olivia and Lincoln streets all day Saturday. Coordinates: https://plus.codes/86JR77C9+MQ Group Link: https://www.meetup.com/Ann-Arbor-SSC-Rationalist-Meetup-Group/ Notes: RSVP here: https://www.meetup.com/ann-arbor-ssc-rationalist-meetup-group/events/299819097/ and join the Meetup.com list to hear about our meetups every month, or text me at: 517-945-8084 and I'll add you to the text notification I send out. Bring snacks if the weather is good (no snacks allowed indoors)
Inline links: https://plus.codes/87J9884H+VF, https://www.lesswrong.com/events/78BKdkLerGaBwGTx6/northampton-ma-acx-meetup-spring-2024-meetups-everywhere, https://plus.codes/86JR77C9+MQ, https://www.meetup.com/Ann-Arbor-SSC-Rationalist-Meetup-Group/, https://www.meetup.com/ann-arbor-ssc-rationalist-meetup-group/events/299819097/
ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN, USA Contact: Joseph Pryor Contact Info: jwpryorprojects[at]gmail[dot]com Time: Saturday, April 20th, 1:00 PM Location: 1420 Hill Street Ann Arbor Michigan. We'll be meeting at the Friends Meetinghouse (euphemism for Quaker) in the back yard if weather allows, otherwise we'll meet in the corner room. 1-5pm. The restrooms are open.. Two small parking lots (~12 spaces total) are located by the alley at the rear of the property, plus a handicap parking space. Parking is available on Olivia and Lincoln streets all day Saturday. Coordinates: https://plus.codes/86JR77C9+MQ Group Link: https://www.meetup.com/Ann-Arbor-SSC-Rationalist-Meetup-Group/ Notes: RSVP here: https://www.meetup.com/ann-arbor-ssc-rationalist-meetup-group/events/299819097/ and join the Meetup.com list to hear about our meetups every month, or text me at: 517-945-8084 and I'll add you to the text notification I send out. Bring snacks if the weather is good (no snacks allowed indoors)
Inline links: https://plus.codes/86JR77C9+MQ, https://www.meetup.com/Ann-Arbor-SSC-Rationalist-Meetup-Group/, https://www.meetup.com/ann-arbor-ssc-rationalist-meetup-group/events/299819097/
GRAND RAPIDS, MICHIGAN, USA Contact: Peter Contact Info: pjvh[at]umich[dot]edu Time: Saturday, April 13th, 1:00 PM Location: Lookout Park. I’ll have a nametag and a hammock (weather permitting). Coordinates: https://plus.codes/86JPX8GJ+VV Notes: Updates will be here- https://petervh.com/GR-ACX
Inline links: https://plus.codes/86JPX8GJ+VV, https://petervh.com/GR-ACX
Meetups Everywhere 2024: Times & Places
August 29, 2024 · Original source
Contact: Alex Liebowitz Contact Info: alex[at]alexliebowitz[dot]com Time: Saturday, September 28th, 06:00 PM Location: Common house at Rocky Hill Cohousing, 100 Black Birch Trail, Northampton, MA 01062. The common house is the first building you see when coming into the community (but after the event parking, which lines the road leading in on the right). Note: Florence is a village within Northampton, and some maps services show the city as Florence, some as Northampton. Coordinates: https://plus.codes/87J9884H+VF Group Link: Email alex[at]alexliebowitz[dot]com to get on mailing list (let me know if you want to be a CC or BCC). Notes: Guest parking should be along the road leading in (Black Birch Trail), parking to the right as you drive in. There is an Event Parking sign but it is not the most visible. There are disabled spaces directly in front of the Common House (100 Black Birch Trail). If we overflow the road, people can use the resident lots to the left and right. Michigan ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN, USA Contact: Joseph Pryor Contact Info: jwpryorprojects[at]gmail[dot]com Time: Saturday, September 14th, 01:00 PM Location: 1420 Hill Street Ann Arbor Michigan. We'll be meeting at the Friends Meetinghouse (euphemism for Quaker) in the back yard if weather allows, otherwise we'll meet in the corner room. Coordinates: https://plus.codes/86JR77C9+MQ Group Link: https://www.meetup.com/Ann-Arbor-SSC-Rationalist-Meetup-Group/ Notes: RSVP at the meetup.com group! This is a monthly meetup! Join the Meetup.com list to hear about our meetups every month, or text me at: 517-945-8084 and I'll add you to the text notification I send out. Parking information is on the meetup.com group. The event runs from to 1-5pm.
Inline links: https://plus.codes/87J9884H+VF, https://plus.codes/86JR77C9+MQ, https://www.meetup.com/Ann-Arbor-SSC-Rationalist-Meetup-Group/
Contact: Joseph Pryor Contact Info: jwpryorprojects[at]gmail[dot]com Time: Saturday, September 14th, 01:00 PM Location: 1420 Hill Street Ann Arbor Michigan. We'll be meeting at the Friends Meetinghouse (euphemism for Quaker) in the back yard if weather allows, otherwise we'll meet in the corner room. Coordinates: https://plus.codes/86JR77C9+MQ Group Link: https://www.meetup.com/Ann-Arbor-SSC-Rationalist-Meetup-Group/ Notes: RSVP at the meetup.com group! This is a monthly meetup! Join the Meetup.com list to hear about our meetups every month, or text me at: 517-945-8084 and I'll add you to the text notification I send out. Parking information is on the meetup.com group. The event runs from to 1-5pm.
Inline links: https://plus.codes/86JR77C9+MQ, https://www.meetup.com/Ann-Arbor-SSC-Rationalist-Meetup-Group/
Contact: Joseph Pryor Contact Info: jwpryorprojects[at]gmail[dot]com Time: Saturday, September 14th, 01:00 PM Location: 1420 Hill Street Ann Arbor Michigan. We'll be meeting at the Friends Meetinghouse (euphemism for Quaker) in the back yard if weather allows, otherwise we'll meet in the corner room. Coordinates: https://plus.codes/86JR77C9+MQ Group Link: https://www.meetup.com/Ann-Arbor-SSC-Rationalist-Meetup-Group/ Notes: RSVP at the meetup.com group! This is a monthly meetup! Join the Meetup.com list to hear about our meetups every month, or text me at: 517-945-8084 and I'll add you to the text notification I send out. Parking information is on the meetup.com group. The event runs from to 1-5pm. DETROIT, MICHIGAN, USA Contact: Victor Contact Info: wooddellv[at]yahoo[do t]com Time: Friday, September 27th, 06:00 PM Location: The Panera Bread at the corner of 13 mile and Woodward Ave, in Royal Oak, MI. There will be a sign indicating the section of the restaurant reserved for us. Coordinates: https://plus.codes/86JRGR87+X3 Notes: RSVP Required (so that I can reserve enough space) Contact me at wooddellv@yahoo.com
Inline links: https://plus.codes/86JR77C9+MQ, https://www.meetup.com/Ann-Arbor-SSC-Rationalist-Meetup-Group/, https://plus.codes/86JRGR87+X3
Game Theory Of Michigan Muslims
November 08, 2024 · Original source
Mentioned before: a group of Muslims in Michigan are backing Trump because they’re mad at the Biden/Harris administration for supporting Israel. They understand that Trump supports Israel even more. They just worry that if they always vote straight Democrat like every other minority group, the Democrats have no incentive to listen to them. They hope that if they elect Trump, even if he doesn’t listen to them, then the Democrats will work harder to woo them next time around.
Eliezer’s insight is that the Michigan Muslims’ dilemma follows this same logic. Suppose we abstract away the pro-Israel voters into part of Kamala’s utility function (she wants to support Israel, and we leave it unsaid that this is because she wants to woo pro-Israel voters). Now Kamala’s job is to “make an offer” which divides the “pot” (her ability to distribute goodies if she becomes President) between the Muslims’ utility function and her own. And it’s the Muslims’ job to either accept the offer (by voting for her) or reject it (by abstaining, or voting against). It’s naive-rational for the Muslims to always vote for Kamala, because they always get a better outcome than if they voted for Trump - but only in the same way it’s naive-rational for Player B to always take $0.01 offers, because at least he gets $0.01. If the Muslims are smart, they’ll add in some term for punishing Kamala if her offer is offensively low - which is what the real Muslims are doing now
Book Review: From Bauhaus To Our House
December 04, 2024 · Original source
Every new $900,000 summer house in the north woods of Michigan or on the shore of Long Island has so many pipe railings, ramps, hob-tread metal spiral stairways, sheets of industrial plate glass, banks of tungsten-halogen lamps, and white-cylindrical shapes, it looks like an insecticide refinery. I once saw the owners of such a place driven to the edge of sensory deprivation by the whiteness & lightness & leanness & cleanness & bareness & spareness of it all. They became desperate for an antidote, such as coziness & color. They tried to bury the obligatory white sofas under Thai-silk throw pillows of every rebellious, iridescent shade of magenta, pink, and tropical green imaginable. But the architect returned, as he always does, like the conscience of a Calvinist, and he lectured them and hectored them and chucked the shimmering little sweet things out [...]
Meetups Everywhere Spring 2025: Times & Places
March 25, 2025 · Original source
Contact: Satya Benson Contact Info: acx[period]meetup[a t]satchlj[period]com Time: Saturday, April 12th, 01:30 PM Location: Sawyer Library 430 Conference Room Coordinates: https://plus.codes/87J8PQ7X+C5F Group Link: https://eph.lol/acx/ Notes: There will be suggested reading ahead of the meetup Michigan ANN ARBOR Contact: Joseph Pryor Contact Info: jwpryorprojects[a t]gmail[period]com Time: Saturday, May 17th, 01:00 PM Location: Friends Meetinghouse 1420 Hill St. Ann Arbor Mi If the weather is good will meet in the back yard at the picnic tables, if it is raining or too cold the corner room of the meeting house is reserved. Coordinates: https://plus.codes/86JR77C9+MQ Group Link: https://www.meetup.com/ann-arbor-ssc-rationalist-meetup-group Notes: Meetup runs from 1pm to 5pm, come any time in that range! All day parking is available in the alley at the rear of the property and on the side streets. Feel free to bring food and drinks if the weather is good. (no food or drinks indoors) Bathrooms are available inside the building. For any questions or for text reminders the day before: 517-945-8084 No rsvp required but check out our monthly meetups at the group link!
Inline links: https://plus.codes/87J8PQ7X+C5F, https://eph.lol/acx/, https://plus.codes/86JR77C9+MQ
Testing AI's GeoGuessr Genius
May 02, 2025 · Original source
This is a zoomed-in piece of lawn from a house I used to rent in Westland, Michigan.
This is the same picture that furnished the lawn grass earlier - my old house in Westland, Michigan.
o3’s guess: “W 66th St area, Richfield, Minnesota, USA. Confidence: ~40 % within 15 km; ~70 % within the Twin-Cities metro; remainder split between Wisconsin (20 %) and Michigan/Ontario (~10 %).”
Highlights From The Comments On AI Geoguessr
May 08, 2025 · Original source
It guessed Lansing Michigan, was College Park MD. Distance wrong: 760 km
After looking through many other user tests, I found this the most insightful rule of thumb on what it gets right vs. wrong. In retrospect, Kelsey’s California beach and my Nepal trekking trail are both very touristy; my house in Michigan and Vadim’s Siberian streets aren’t.
Meetups Everywhere 2025: Times and Places
August 29, 2025 · Original source
Contact: Alex Contact Info: alex[a t]alexliebowitz[period]com Time: Saturday, September 6th, 6:00 PM Location: Rocky Hill Cohousing 100 Black Birch Trail, Northampton, MA 01062 Common house at Rocky Hill Cohousing, 100 Black Birch Trail, Northampton, MA 01062. The common house is the first building you see when coming into the community (but after the event parking, which lines the road leading in on the right). The entrance door is around the left coming from Black Birch Trail; we'll put a sign saying "ACX Meetups Everywhere" or the like on the correct door. Walk straight in and you'll come to the main room where the meetup is happening. Coordinates: https://plus.codes/87J9884H+VF Group Link: Email alex[at]alexliebowitz[dot]com to get on mailing list (let me know if you want to be a CC or BCC). There's also a moderately-active Discord that you can join at https://discord.gg/vec [remove this bit] W7TfsPg , where I make the announcements as well. Notes: Guest parking should be along the road leading in (Black Birch Trail), parking to the right as you drive in. There is an Event Parking sign but it is not the most visible. There are disabled spaces directly in front of the Common House (100 Black Birch Trail). If we overflow the road, people can use the resident lots to the left and right. Michigan ANN ARBOR Contact: Joseph Pryor Contact Info: Jwpryorprojects[a t]gmail[period]com Time: Saturday, September 20th, 1:00 PM Location: Friends Meetinghouse 1420 Hill St. Ann Arbor Mi If the weather is good will meet in the back yard at the picnic tables, if it is raining or too cold the corner room of the meeting house is reserved. Coordinates: https://plus.codes/86JR77C9+MQ Group Link: https://www.meetup.com/ann-arbor-ssc-rationalist-meetup-group Notes: Meetup runs from 1pm to 5pm, come any time in that range! All day parking is available in the alley at the rear of the property and on the side streets. Feel free to bring food and drinks if the weather is good. (no food or drinks indoors) Bathrooms are available inside the building. For any questions or for text reminders the day before: 517-945-8084 No rsvp required but check out our monthly meetups at the group link!
Inline links: https://plus.codes/87J9884H+VF, https://plus.codes/86JR77C9+MQ, https://www.meetup.com/ann-arbor-ssc-rationalist-meetup-group
Meetups Everywhere Spring 2026: Times & Places
April 01, 2026 · Original source
Contact: Alex Contact Info: alex[@]alexliebowitz[.]com Time: Saturday, May 16th, 6:00 PM Location: Common house at Rocky Hill Cohousing, 100 Black Birch Trail, Northampton, MA 01062. The common house is the first building you see when coming into the community (but after the event parking, which lines the road leading in on the right). The entrance door is around the left coming from Black Birch Trail; we’ll put a sign saying “ACX Meetups Everywhere” or the like on the correct door. Walk straight in and you’ll come to the main room where the meetup is happening. Coordinates: https://plus.codes/87J9884H+VF Group Link: Email alex[at]alexliebowitz[dot]com to get on mailing list (let me know if you want to be a CC or BCC). There’s also a moderately-active Discord that you can join at https://discord.gg/vec [remove this bit] W7TfsPg , where I make the announcements as well. Notes: Guest parking should be along the road leading in (Black Birch Trail), parking to the right as you drive in. There is an Event Parking sign but it is not the most visible. There are disabled spaces directly in front of the Common House (100 Black Birch Trail). If we overflow the road, people can use the resident lots to the left and right. Michigan ANN ARBOR Contact: Joseph Pryor Contact Info: jwpryorprojects[@]gmail[.]com Time: Saturday, May 16th, 1:00 PM Location: Friends Meetinghouse 1420 Hill St. Ann Arbor Mi If the weather is good we’ll meet in the back yard at the picnic tables, if it is raining or too cold the corner room of the meeting house is reserved. Coordinates: https://plus.codes/86JR77C9+MQ Group Link: https://www.meetup.com/ann-arbor-ssc-rationalist-meetup-group/ Notes: Meetup runs from 1pm to 5pm, come any time in that range! All day parking is available in the alley at the rear of the property and on the side streets. Feel free to bring food and drinks if the weather is good. (no food or drinks indoors) Bathrooms are available inside the building. For any questions or for text reminders the day before: 517-945-8084 No rsvp required, check out our monthly meetups the 3rd Saturday of every month!
Inline links: https://plus.codes/87J9884H+VF, https://plus.codes/86JR77C9+MQ, https://www.meetup.com/ann-arbor-ssc-rationalist-meetup-group/