Astral Codex Ten

Arizona

29 min read

Arizona

Article

Arizona is a recurring place in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 17 times across 17 issues between April 30, 2021 and April 01, 2026. The archive places it in contexts such as “they can’t provide water to the exploding populations of Arizona or Sub-Saharan Africa”; “cities like Chandler, Arizona”; “winter diseases don’t switch to summer in Arizona”. It most often appears alongside California, Australia, India.

Metadata

  • Category: Places
  • Mention count: 17
  • Issue count: 17
  • First seen: April 30, 2021
  • Last seen: April 01, 2026

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

Your Book Review: The Wizard And The Prophet
April 30, 2021 · Original source
In "Water," again, the Wizards have a solid track record. The Wizardly California State Water Project transformed a desert into the most productive farmland and state in the nation; the National Water Carrier Project of Israel-Palestine made life in the Fertile Crescent possible for millions of Jewish refugees. Desalination projects (expensive, but with nearly bottomless potential, given how huge our oceans are) have de-escalated the fight for shrinking groundwater resources in California and the Middle East. In this arena, the Prophets have been a little more successful in offering alternative conservation-oriented solutions that have stuck: storm and wastewater reclamation, drip irrigation, and behavioral change campaigns to encourage more frugal water usage that have seeped (pun intended) so deeply into the public consciousness that running the tap while brushing your teeth feels as illicit as lighting up a cigarette. All of these measures do little, though, to solve the fundamental underlying problem of massive urban growth in water-scarce areas like the American Sunbelt; if anything, growing water efficiency among consumers exacerbates the problem by shrinking utility profits and forcing them to either cut back on much-needed infrastructure repair and service improvement or raise water costs. Conservation and reclamation can only do so much; they can’t provide water to the exploding populations of Arizona or Sub-Saharan Africa.
Inline links: California State Water Project, National Water Carrier Project, shrinking utility profits and forcing them to either cut back on much-needed infrastructure repair and service improvement or raise water costs
Links For June
June 23, 2021 · Original source
16: Theory on why Waymo hasn’t established its driverless car program yet. TL;DR: they’ve solved driving in very easy cities like Chandler, Arizona, but all the profitable markets are in very hard cities, so they’re going to try to master hard cities before going public at all.
Inline links: Theory on why Waymo hasn’t established its driverless car program yet
Diseasonality
December 08, 2021 · Original source
(if it was just humidity, same argument, but change the examples to Arizona and Florida.)
It’s the same story with people being cramped indoors. Common-sensically, this has to be some of the story. But if it were the most important contributor, you would expect to see the opposite pattern in very hot areas, where nobody will go out during the summer but it’s pleasant and balmy in the winter. But winter diseases don’t switch to summer in Arizona or Saudi Arabia or other hot locales.
Might it be some combination of these things? Maybe Alaska is cold all year, but gets drier in the winter? Maybe people stay indoors in Arizona in the summer, but it’s not cold enough for flu to spread? If you came up with some multidimensional dryness-coolness-indoorness metric, then maybe places could be high on one or two in the summer, but the combined metric would always be highest in the winter everywhere.
ACX Grants Results
December 28, 2021 · Original source
Yoram Bauman, $50,000, to help fund his campaign for economically literate climate change solutions. Bauman was the sponsor of the 2016 Washington carbon tax ballot initiative, which failed by a small margin. Now he's built up a coalition of economists, environmentalists, and friendly politicians to try to get climate measures passed or on the ballot in seven states by 2024. Bauman is the world's only “stand-up economist”, and also on track to be the world's only person to win a bet with Bryan Caplan. You can follow or donate to the effort he’s part of in Utah at CleanTheDarnAir.org, connect via email or twitter to chat about Nebraska, South Dakota, Arizona, Michigan, or your favorite state (yoram@standupeconomist.com, @standupecon), or sign up for overall updates and see comedy videos at https://standupeconomist.com/videos/.
Inline links: Yoram Bauman, on track, Bryan Caplan, CleanTheDarnAir.org, yoram@standupeconomist.com, @standupecon, https://standupeconomist.com/videos/
Open Thread 210
February 07, 2022 · Original source
One paragraph summary of Jan 2022 progress on #climate24x7 (advancing smart climate efforts in the legislature and/or via 2024 ballot measures in at least 7 states): In Nebraska, climate-concerned R state senator John McCollister introduced LB944, a short 3-page bill that cuts the regressive 5.5% state sales tax rate on electricity once electric utilities hit certain carbon intensity targets; see these one-pagers. We have a page of potential improvements based feedback from utility folks and others and are anticipating a public hearing in late February or early March. A similar idea is making progress in South Dakota, where a D legislator has expressed interest in similar legislation, and in Arizona, where I’ve hired Autumn Johnson of Tierra Strategy to pursue this; we’ve written one-pagers and draft legislation, she’s gotten fairly positive feedback from utilities, enviros, and legislative staff, and we’re doing our best to find a House member to introduce legislation before the cut-off of Friday Feb 4. In Utah we continue to work on the signature-gathering plan for the Clean The Darn Air 2024 ballot measure effort; we also anticipate the introduction of a similar bill in this year’s legislative session. Also trying to push forward with ideas or exploratory conversations in Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, and Michigan. Additional funding would help extend Autumn’s contract and help push forward faster in Nebraska, South Dakota, and elsewhere! From Yoram Bauman (yoram@standupeconomist.com, @standupecon)
Inline links: John McCollister, LB944, one-pagers, Tierra Strategy, one-pagers, draft legislation, plan, Clean The Darn Air, yoram@standupeconomist.com
California Gubernatorial Candidates From Z to Z
May 24, 2022 · Original source
With the same money, built a 200-mile electric train from San Diego to Yuma [in Arizona], along the border [with Mexico], UNDERGROUND. Place a light rail system above ground. Now, you have cut off any possible illegal drug and human trafficking across the border, both above and below ground. And, you have a basic infrastructure to develop the 200+ miles of undeveloped land, to build new cities and millions of new homes, thus solving the housing crisis! A Double WIN-WIN, a secure border, and room to grow. IT'S THAT SIMPLE!
Why Is The Central Valley So Bad?
September 21, 2022 · Original source
Racial demographics: Source: Wikipedia. Central Valley cities like Fresno and Bakersfield aren’t really more Hispanic than other parts of California or Arizona, so if immigration or racial issues played a part it must have been more complicated than just numbers. Number of immigrants in California over time: Factors of productivity in agriculture: V. So why is the Central Valley so bad? It’s an agricultural region, but lots of places are agricultural. It got lots of immigrants, but no more than many other places. It’s polluted - but so was LA, and LA rebounded. This is just a weak guess, but I think it starts with their crops. The Midwest grows mostly corn and wheat. The Central Valley is more fruits, vegetables, and nuts. Corn and wheat are easier to harvest, so middle-class farmers can own the farm and buy a mechanical harvester or something. Fruits, vegetables, and nuts benefit from intensive manual picking, so farm owners hire outside labor. According to Carolina Demography: There are about 3 million farmworkers in the United States: about two million are family farmworkers and another one million are hired farmworkers…nationally, about three-fourths of hired farmworkers are foreign-born; most (69%) were born in Mexico; 6% were born in Central America; and 1% were born in another country. Given that these are mostly Mexican immigrants, we’re probably not talking about people who are hired to grow corn in Kansas. I think plausibly the majority of US hired farmworkers live in California’s Central Valley. This makes it a sort of plantation agriculture system, which naturally tends towards landowners taking all the gains and workers ending up as an underclass. In the mid-20th century, the local plantation underclass was made of Okies (cf. The Grapes of Wrath). In the later 20th century, many immigrants moved in, lowering wages. Although immigrants don’t usually lower wages, this is because there are usually lots of industries for people to branch out into, but the Central Valley only has agriculture. Also, agribusinesses were becoming better at mechanizing their operations. Although technology doesn’t usually lower wages, again, this requires lots of diverse industries, and the Central Valley only had agriculture. All of this corresponds to the 1975-1985 period on the graphs where wages were going down. But it sounded from some of the testimonials above like the Central Valley didn’t become truly miserable until the late 90s. I’m not sure why this is. It could be the immigrants switching from being migrant laborers to raising families, and those families were impacted by poverty and inequality in a way the original migrants weren’t. It could be worsening drug problems as new drugs get invented and go down in price. (I’m not sure if NIMBYism and rising house prices also played a part. House prices do seem to have risen, a lot, but I was under the impression that building things in the Central Valley was easy and most of a house’s price there is construction rather than land. I’m not sure why house prices would have gone up so much since 1990 if this were true, though.) Other things that the articles I read emphasized: There’s a severe drought in the Central Valley right now. This is probably partly climate change, partly bad luck, and partly California diverting water to hydrate growing coastal cities. This has made everything worse (but then why isn’t that reflected in worsening economic statistics?)
Inline links: https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!K8wW!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6ce47fbd-0a84-4461-a96c-07a2d8130d4e_412x104.png, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Vvxn!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe95d035a-8dea-410c-8b8f-19acb145859e_676x356.png, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xlsr!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F36965205-4cb9-4f93-b855-91cc6b9047b5_450x397.png, Carolina Demography, Okies
Open Thread 273
April 24, 2023 · Original source
1: New spring meetups added since I last updated you: Phoenix, Arizona; Melbourne, Australia. Check the list for dates and times
Inline links: spring meetups
Meetups Everywhere 2023: Times & Places
August 25, 2023 · Original source
ANCHORAGE, ALASKA, USA Contact: Matthew Contact Info: 7o2wzrybd[at]mozmail[dot]com Time: Sunday, October 29th, 1:00 PM Location: The Writer's Block Bookstore & Cafe, 3956 Spenard Rd, Anchorage, AK 99517. I'll be wearing a green pullover and have a small sign on the table saying ACX MEETUP Coordinates: https://plus.codes/93HG53MF+QG Notes: Please RSVP using my provided email, so that I know what I should prepare for! Arizona PHOENIX, ARIZONA, USA Contact: Nathan Contact Info: natoboo2000[at]gmail[dot]com Time: Saturday, September 30th, 3:00 PM Location: Meeting at the picnic tables near the playground, I'll put up an ACX MEETUP sign and be wearing a funny hat you can't miss. Coordinates: https://plus.codes/8559FWG5+9V9 Group Link: https://discord.gg/zeQtFvPBJ
Inline links: https://plus.codes/93HG53MF+QG, https://plus.codes/8559FWG5+9V9, https://discord.gg/zeQtFvPBJ
PHOENIX, ARIZONA, USA Contact: Nathan Contact Info: natoboo2000[at]gmail[dot]com Time: Saturday, September 30th, 3:00 PM Location: Meeting at the picnic tables near the playground, I'll put up an ACX MEETUP sign and be wearing a funny hat you can't miss. Coordinates: https://plus.codes/8559FWG5+9V9 Group Link: https://discord.gg/zeQtFvPBJ
Inline links: https://plus.codes/8559FWG5+9V9, https://discord.gg/zeQtFvPBJ
TUCSON, ARIZONA, USA Contact: Chris Contact Info: acx[at]cmart[dot]today Time: Saturday, October 7th, 11:15 AM Location: Boxyard at 238 N 4th Ave. Look for ACX tabletop sign. I'll try to get the big shaded table way in the back (next to Los Perches). Coordinates: https://plus.codes/854F62FM+VWW Notes: Boxyard is outdoor seating. It's likely that we'll have shade, but not a guarantee, so dress for possible sun. UPDATE: The original organizer won't be making it, so there may not actually be anyone there.
Inline links: https://plus.codes/854F62FM+VWW
Links For November 2023
December 01, 2023 · Original source
37: Cult of the month: the Global Community Communications Alliance (link goes to fascinating Reddit comment by someone who lives near their compound). They get points for their bold doctrine, their attractive leader, and most of all the extremely stylish new temple they are building in Arizona:
Inline links: Global Community Communications Alliance, bold doctrine, attractive leader, new temple
Spring Meetups Everywhere 2024
March 30, 2024 · Original source
MEXICO CITY, MEXICO Contact: Francisco Contact Info: fagarrido[at]gmail[dot]com Time: Saturday, April 13th, 5:00 PM Location: Cafebreria El Pendulo Coordinates: https://plus.codes/76F2CR6G+6R Group Link: https://www.lesswrong.com/groups/uzTxYaFupgz9ZnCT5 USA Arizona PHOENIX, ARIZONA, USA Contact: Nathan Contact Info: natoboo2000[at]gmail[dot]com Time: Saturday, May 4th, 3:00 PM Location: Encanto Park 2499 N 15th Ave, Phoenix, AZ 85007. We'll be at one of the picnic tables just south of the parking lot, with an ACX meetups sign at the table. Coordinates: https://plus.codes/8559FWG5+9RP Event Link: https://www.lesswrong.com/events/KRcNWJusPhdLrvvxx/acx-phoenix-may-meetup Group Link: https://www.lesswrong.com/groups/xSLmmoudDGM2w8JEG Notes: RSVPs on LessWrong appreciated: https://www.lesswrong.com/events/KRcNWJusPhdLrvvxx/acx-phoenix-may-meetup
Inline links: https://plus.codes/76F2CR6G+6R, https://www.lesswrong.com/groups/uzTxYaFupgz9ZnCT5, https://www.lesswrong.com/events/KRcNWJusPhdLrvvxx/acx-phoenix-may-meetup, https://www.lesswrong.com/groups/xSLmmoudDGM2w8JEG
PHOENIX, ARIZONA, USA Contact: Nathan Contact Info: natoboo2000[at]gmail[dot]com Time: Saturday, May 4th, 3:00 PM Location: Encanto Park 2499 N 15th Ave, Phoenix, AZ 85007. We'll be at one of the picnic tables just south of the parking lot, with an ACX meetups sign at the table. Coordinates: https://plus.codes/8559FWG5+9RP Event Link: https://www.lesswrong.com/events/KRcNWJusPhdLrvvxx/acx-phoenix-may-meetup Group Link: https://www.lesswrong.com/groups/xSLmmoudDGM2w8JEG Notes: RSVPs on LessWrong appreciated: https://www.lesswrong.com/events/KRcNWJusPhdLrvvxx/acx-phoenix-may-meetup
Inline links: https://www.lesswrong.com/events/KRcNWJusPhdLrvvxx/acx-phoenix-may-meetup, https://www.lesswrong.com/groups/xSLmmoudDGM2w8JEG
Meetups Everywhere Spring 2025: Times & Places
March 25, 2025 · Original source
Contact: Tim Contact Info: timothy[period]n[period]jesionowski[a t]gmail[period]com Time: Saturday, April 26th, 2:00 PM Location: The Nook. 3305 Bob Wallace Ave SW I'll be in a black leather jacket, ask Monika if you can't find me. Coordinates: https://plus.codes/866MP96Q+F6 Arizona PHOENIX Contact: Nathan Contact Info: natoboo2000[a t]gmail[period]com Time: Friday, May 16th, 5:30 PM Location: The Churchill. Covered, open-air space with misters. Food hall. I'll have a sign saying ACX. Coordinates: https://plus.codes/8559FW5H+44 Group Link: https://discord.com/invite/ANS[remove this part]ywQABEF, https://www.lesswrong.com/groups/xSLmmoudDGM2w8JEG
Inline links: https://plus.codes/866MP96Q+F6, https://plus.codes/8559FW5H+44, https://www.lesswrong.com/groups/xSLmmoudDGM2w8JEG
Your Review: Alpha School
June 27, 2025 · Original source
“Powered by AI (not teachers).” If all of this makes your inner Bayesian flinch, you’re in good company. After twenty‑odd years of watching shiny education fixes wobble and crash—KIPP, AltSchool, Summit Learning, One-laptop-per-child, No child left behind, MOOCs, Khan‑for‑Everything—you should be skeptical. Either Alpha is (a) another program for the affluent propped up by selection effects, or (b) a clever way to turn children into joyless speed‑reading calculators. Those were, more or less, the two critical camps that emerged when Alpha’s parent company was approved to launch the tuition‑free Arizona charter school this past January. Unfortunately, the public evidence base on whether this is “real” is thin in both directions. Alpha’s own material is glossy and elliptical; mainstream coverage either repeats Alpha’s talking points, or attacks the premise that kids should even be allowed to learn faster than their peers. Until Raj Chetty installs himself in the hallway with a clipboard counting MAP percentiles it is hard to get real information on what exactly Alpha is doing, whether it is actually working beyond selection effects, and if there is anyway it could scale in a way that all the other education initiatives seemed to fail to do. I first heard about Alpha in May 2024, and in the absence of randomized‑controlled clarity, I did what any moderately obsessive parent with three elementary-aged kids and an itch for data would do: I moved the family across the country to Austin for a year and ran the experiment myself (unfortunately, despite trying my best we never managed to have identical twins, so I stopped short of running a proper control group. My wife was less disappointed than I was). Since last autumn I’ve collected the sort of on‑the‑ground detail that doesn’t surface in press releases, or is available anywhere online: long chats with founders, curriculum leads, “guides” (not teachers), Brazilian Zoom coaches, sceptical parents, ecstatic parents, and the kids who live inside the Alpha dashboard – including my own. I hope this seven-part review can help share what the program actually is and that this review is more open minded than the critics, but is something that would never get past an Alpha public relations gatekeeper: Starting Point: My Assumptions: how my views on elite private schools, tutoring and acceleration shaped the experiment (and this essay). WHAT is the existing education environment.
NextGen Academy (Austin) —Perhaps the most radical experiment. Afternoons are spent training in competitive esports & game design. Each new campus launched with <10 students, two or more local guides, and the same two‑hour core. Simultaneously Alpha opened a Miami elementary campus, promoted the idea that cities could launch “micro schools” if they had enough local demand (unless you count Miami, none actually launched) and piloted a beta-test of a Home‑School version of the platform. Early homeschool data showed that kids were using it for ~2 hours/day as planned, but only seeing a 1x learning growth — still a fine result for only doing 2-hours of academics per day, but a long way from what Alpha was delivering on their own campuses, so the program has stayed in beta. Jan 2025 | Charter & Licence Play Alpha now had a parent company, “2-hour Learning”, which sat above all of the schools, the home school product, and the platform itself (that they now offer to license out to third parties). The parent company filed under “Unbound Academy” to launch charter schools in Arizona and Pennsylvania. The Pennsylvania school was rejected, but the Arizona school will launch in fall 2025. There are more applications pending in at least Utah, Arkansa, North Carolina, South Carolina (and likely more). While the PR spin around these schools is “AI-driven, no teachers” in practice they use 20:1 teacher guide:student ratios (vs the 5:1 ratio at the Alpha private schools) Generally states subsidize charter schools in the neighborhood of $10,000 per student – which is a lot lower than what Alpha charges. They should be able to make those economics work by using fewer, less expensive teachers, not having an expensive campus (or no campus at all for the online schools), skimming on the extras (no trips to Poland), avoiding teaching the youngest kids (Arizona is 4th-8th grade), and being willing to accept smaller or even negligible margin on their learning platform. The goal of these schools does not seem to be making money or profit – at least not right away. The goal seems to be rapidly expanding the program to have more influence, and to see if they can make it work with “non-selected kids at a low price point”. Fall 2025 and Beyond | The Future The Alpha website claims the following locations are launching in Fall 2025: Houston, TX
Inline links: NextGen Academy, 2-hour Learning, locations
Low single mother rate He summarizes that as a place of “economic connectedness” – where adults are connected to each other and to the broader community. A lack of those five elements are not bad per se, but they are correlated with a community where people are not interacting with each other as much as they are in communities where the metrics are reversed. Chetty frames it that kids are influenced by the other adults in the area they live in. But I have another hypothesis. Rather than: Other parents → Your kids Perhaps the causation runs from: Other parents → You → Your kids Maybe it’s not other parents' style of parenting that is influencing your kids (how?) but rather when you spend time around other parents their parenting style rubs off on you and how you parent your kids. Influence like that will not get picked up in Caplan’s adoption studies (which focus almost on how parent characteristics get passed on to genetic vs adopted children’s characteristics), but it is a potential signal that maybe parenting choices do matter. Maybe we were just looking at the wrong data. Pre-registered Genius Experiment We now have two data sets that don’t contradict directly, but do point to opposing conclusions. It would be great if we could test this with a pre-registered randomized control trial. That is not going to happen in our current culture. But enter Laszlo Polgár, who volunteered his own children as the test subjects. (Scott’s 2017 review of Polgar’s book here) Before his children were born Polgár publicly announced he would raise them to be geniuses. He initially considered training them to be genius artists, writers or mathematicians, but decided those fields were not objective enough. It would be too easy for critics to dismiss his future children’s achievements and “not genius” no matter what they accomplished in those fields. So he chose a field that was considered both “driven by intelligence” that had clear, objective measures: chess. Then he called his shot. By 1989 all three girls received their first “GM norms” (a GM norm is finishing a tournament with a elo score of at least 2600; 27 norms are needed to make grandmaster). Two went on to become grandmasters - the 3rd and 4th women to ever achieve that title. One ranked in the top 100 (all genders) at age 12 – she peaked at #8 in the world. The other became the top-rated woman in the world at age 15. Polgar showed that you could take kids, at least kids with “good enough genes”, and turn them into world champions through the right education methods. One might think this would be “case closed”, but even as the Polgar sisters were achieving these feats people were saying that these girls must have been “naturally gifted”. They clearly had bright parents, but does anyone think that if they had been adopted into a random middle class American household they would have still become chess geniuses? Or world class in anything at all? When Polgar was challenged on exactly that, he wanted to repeat the experiment by adopting a “black child” and doing it again. Unfortunately his wife talked him out of it. Even if he had adopted a child and turned him into a genius, that would just be one data point – it would not show up in Caplan’s adoption studies. It would be a case of the anecdote and the data disagreeing. Which do you choose to believe? Aristocratic Tutoring It would be great if we could find more examples of Polgar’s model. While I could not find any other “called shots”, one could go back and look at the childhoods of geniuses to see if there is anything to find. That is what Erik Hoel did in his series of posts on “Why we stopped making Einsteins” (post 1, post 2, post 3; Scott’s response). Hoel argues persuasively that, when biographies of their childhoods exist, the geniuses of the past were almost all given 1:1 tutoring. There must have been many aristocrats in the past that were given 1:1 tutoring who never amounted to world-class genius, and many world-class geniuses who got there without 1:1 tutoring, but it does seem to put the thumb on the scale. Benjamin Bloom would agree. Benjamin Bloom quantified Polgar’s hunch in 1984, just eight years after Polgar’s last daughter was born. He ran a RCT where some students were taught normally and others given 1:1 tutoring. He found that the average tutored child improved by two standard deviations over the control: “The average tutored student was above 98% of the students in the control class” and “about 90% of the tutored students ... attained the level reached by only the highest 20% [of the control]”. He called his finding the “Bloom’s 2 sigma problem” Why would this discovery of the secret sauce that could turn the average student into a genius be a problem? Because Bloom saw no way to scale it. Clearly we can’t give every kid in the world a personal 1:1 tutor. We had the solution that would revolutionize everything, but it was just too expensive. Where does that leave us? Caplan showed that, within the normal range, nothing you do in education or parenting matters. …But Chetty showed that how (or at least where) your kids are raised can matter. …Polgar showed that intense 1:1 tutoring from a young age can create world-class geniuses …And Bloom showed that 1:1 tutoring can work for almost everyone, improving performance, if not to world-class levels, still two standard deviations above the alternative. Caplan is still mostly right—if you hover in the complacent middle of American schooling. But Chetty hints that context nudges outcomes, Polgár proves that deliberate, early, personalised instruction can manufacture prodigies, and Bloom tells us it lifts the average child by two sigmas. Alpha’s claim is that software‑mediated, 5:1 tutoring narrows that two‑sigma gap for a price mere mortals can (barely) contemplate. Whether that vision survives contact with budgets, regulators, and human nature is the question for section seven. Part Seven: Scaling Weird A month into our experiment in Austin we were at a neighbor’s backyard pool party (a fringe benefit of moving to Austin: there were backyard pool parties in early November). I was in conversation with a couple that I had just been introduced to. He asked why we moved to Austin, “Was it for your job?” “No. Actually we moved for a school for the kids.” Their faces expressed a combination of confusion and shock. It wasn’t the first nor the last time. Everyone is confused at why we would move across the country to send our kids to a new school, “They don’t have good schools where you come from? How much does this school cost?” Those two questions frame Alpha’s biggest risks when it comes to scaling. Their biggest challenges going forward are not going to be pedagogical. They are going to be sociological and economic. The Economic Problem Alpha is much cheaper than a Victorian Governess, but it’s not cheap. As mentioned in this review more than a few times, Alpha’s flagship campus charges $40,000 a year— roughly 3-4× what the other top-tier private elementary schools in Austin ask. Yes, that figure is all‑in: every Chromebook, every afternoon workshop, even the spring junket to Poland to beta‑test the platform with Ukrainian refugees is baked into tuition. There are no gala auctions or booster fees waiting in tall grass. Still, $40k is a hard swallow when the local Christian school will take your child for eleven. Worse, the number almost certainly fails to cover costs. Recall that guides start at $60k, rise to $100k on promotion, and the five “head guides” each earn $150k. At the five‑to‑one student‑to‑teacher ratio Alpha runs, those salaries alone suck in half the revenue from a twenty‑kid cohort before you’ve paid the rent, the head of school, the company executives, the curriculum designers, the engineers that are building the 2-hour platform and AlphaRead, the workshop costs (or the trip to Ukraine) or the marketing expenses (MacKenzie has a very well produced podcast, and I see a lot of ads for the school on Facebook now that we live locally). Compared with aristocratic one‑to‑one tutoring, forty grand is a steal. But $40,000 is still Lamborghini kindergarten – and even at those prices it is still burning through Joe Liemandt’s cash pile. Alpha’s answer to eventually solving the economics seems to be two fold: (1) Get enough scale that the fixed costs (like the learning platform) become a rounding error on overall costs, and (2) pull out the “non-essentials” at many of the campuses to get the marginal cost well below $10,000 per student. Whether they will be successful is still in early innings. The homeschool product beta is limping along with 1x learning, and the Arizona Charter doesn’t open until autumn 2025. Whether Alpha retains its magic without $150,000/year guides with 5:1 teacher:student ratios and generous bribe incentives programs, remains to be seen. The Weirdness Problem When Bryan Caplan writes about the signaling theory of education, he lists three signals that schools send to employers: Our students are smart
Inline links: He summarizes that as a place of “economic connectedness”, Laszlo Polgár, Scott’s 2017 review of Polgar’s book here, post 1, post 2, post 3, Scott’s response, Benjamin Bloom
Open Thread 391
July 21, 2025 · Original source
IAA is promoting a technological solution - in ovo sexing - that lets farmers identify eggs by sex and only hatch the female ones. This is already widespread in Europe, but recently got its first American champion in NestFresh, available at Whole Foods in Southern California, Arizona, and Nevada now, and elsewhere later this year. Other companies are watching their performance - so if you support this effort, consider buying NestFresh eggs with the "Humanely Hatched" label. Read more here.
Inline links: here
Meetups Everywhere 2025: Times and Places
August 29, 2025 · Original source
Contact: Tim Contact Info: SentientMollusk[a t]protonmail[period]com Time: Monday, October 27th, 2:00 PM Location: We will be in the Barnes and Noble Cafe at the Bridge Street shopping mall. I will have a black leather jacket on my chair (or possibly on my person). Coordinates: https://plus.codes/866MP88H+43 Group Link: https://light-machines.org/ Notes: We have meetups posted on the website through October! If you can't make the September meetup, feel free to check back later. Arizona PHOENIX Contact: Nathan Contact Info: natoboo2000[a t]gmail[period]com Time: Saturday, September 13th, 3:00 PM Location: 901 N 1st St, Phoenix, AZ 85004. We'll have a table sign saying "ACX MEETUP", and plan to be at the high tables in the back of the courtyard. Coordinates: https://plus.codes/8559FW5H+54 Group Link: https://www.lesswrong.com/groups/xSLmmoudDGM2w8JEG Notes: Please RSVP on LessWrong so I can get a rough estimate of how many people to expect.
Inline links: https://plus.codes/866MP88H+43, https://plus.codes/8559FW5H+54, https://www.lesswrong.com/groups/xSLmmoudDGM2w8JEG
Shameless Guesses, Not Hallucinations
March 16, 2026 · Original source
Some kids never guessed. They thought it was dishonest. I had trouble understanding them, but when I think back on it, I had limits too. I would guess on multiple choice questions, but never the short answer section. “Who invented the cotton gin?” For any “who invented” question in US History, there’s a 10% chance it’s Thomas Edison. Still, I never put down his name. “Who negotiated the purchase of southern Arizona from Mexico?” The most common name in the United States has long been “John Smith”, applying to 1/10,000 individuals. An 0.01% chance of getting a question right is better than zero, right? If I’d guessed “John Smith” for every short answer question I didn’t know, I might have gotten ~1 extra point in my school career, with no downside.
Meetups Everywhere Spring 2026: Times & Places
April 01, 2026 · Original source
Contact: Eddie Contact Info: acxcdmx[@]gmail[.]com Time: Saturday, May 16th, 4:00 PM Location: Feel free to join us at Cafebrería El Péndulo, Condesa, for coffee, drinks, and rationalist-related conversation. Coordinates: https://plus.codes/76F2CR6G+6R Group Link: https://www.lesswrong.com/groups/uzTxYaFupgz9ZnCT5 United States of America Arizona PHOENIX Contact: Nathan Contact Info: natoboo2000[@]gmail[.]com Time: Sunday, May 10th, 1:45 PM Location: 3500 S Rural Rd, Tempe, AZ 85282, USA We’ll be in the Tempe Library, Ironwood Classroom (the front desk can give you directions thru the hallways) Coordinates: https://plus.codes/855C93RC+HP Group Link: https://discord.com/invite/ANSyw [remove this bit] QABEF Notes: RSVP not required, but much appreciated!
Inline links: https://plus.codes/76F2CR6G+6R, https://www.lesswrong.com/groups/uzTxYaFupgz9ZnCT5, https://plus.codes/855C93RC+HP